MBG Markets: 美元虽已连续下跌多日，但仍然偏空

Quantitative trading strategy
虽然近几周我们的量化交易策略净值有所回落，但回撤幅度相对有限；并且值得注意的是，货币市场在2020年展现出稳固并明显的每周动量反转效应。投资者下半年可继续参考我们的每周建议组合。另外，本周组合有一定调整。
MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7货币对冲组合》。组合净值上周下跌0.01%。本周组合及截至北京时间8month19day6:20The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

Focus of foreign exchange market

避险货币方面，周二，美元指数连续第五个交易日下跌，并一举跌破前期低点92.50。主要还是因新一轮刺激方案谈判僵局仍然未破，人们担心美国将难以重获增长动力，美元需求受到削弱；另外美债收益率的走低也施压美元。因此，短线维持美元指数为震荡偏弱结构。日元方面，受实际负利率预期的再度升温，日元大幅走强，因此，短线维持美/日为震荡偏弱结构。

英镑方面，周二，英镑兑美元大涨1.08%。一方面是受即将开始的新一轮脱欧谈判影响，由于上周英国首相府表示，可能会与欧盟在9月达成协议，交易员大手笔押注英镑；另外，美元自身的疲软也在一定程度上提振了英镑。因此，短线英镑或许还有继续走高的需求。

In terms of commodity currency，周二，澳元、纽元继续上涨。一方面是因美元的回落，另一方面从昨日澳洲联储会议纪要来看，政策委员重申，在当前环境下，澳大利亚无需调整一揽子措施，对于澳元影响有限。而近期中国经济的继续回升以及股市的走强也对澳元形成了一定支撑。因此，短对于澳元而言或许还有上升动能，但空间不一定很大。

commodity market

Trading preference –  今日维持crude oil（WTI）、gold（XAU）均为震荡偏多结构。

黄金方面，周二，金价剧烈震荡。一方面是因部分投资者锁定获利施压黄金；但另一方面美债收益率小幅走低也令金价回落幅度有限。除此以外，国际紧张局势的升温也推动了黄金价格的上涨，因此，短线继续维持其为震荡偏强的结构。

In terms of oil prices，周二，美油跌近1%，主要是因本月OPEC+的增产影响。今天早间APIReduction in crude oil inventory426.410000 barrels to5.12亿桶，考虑到APIandEIA正相关性较大，因此，对于晚上的EIA库存或许也将构成利多。因此，短线维持油价为震荡偏多结构。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周二，恒指收涨0.08%；其中，黄金及贵金属涨幅居前。考虑到美股近期涨跌不一，因此港股或将面临一定压力。技术上看，继续关注24500Support and26000The pressure.

abstract

CFTC资金流数据显示，加元、美元空头仍处于极值，因此，预计短期随着资金流入并支持其回涨，另外，欧元、瑞郎、澳元多头也处于极值。

Europe/USA and Australia/美多头可继续持有，但如遇冲高可兑现部分利润。

Economic Calendar


Risk Statement and Important Notes
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