Fan Chenjie:8.10Can broad fluctuations in gold break out of range? Suggested analysis of the trend of gold and crude oil in the evening

    Success is not because others walk and you walk, but because you are still moving forward when others stop. Giving up is easy, but you can only get nothing. Persistence can be difficult, but eventually there will be gains. Don't stop easily, persist for one more minute, and you will gain more.

    Investment is a long-term strategy, not overnight, so it should not be rushed. Even if you lose money now, there's nothing to be afraid of. As long as you make the right choice, what you lose will come back. Seize the opportunity to make orders and grasp the market trends, in order to win all battles. The process of investment is a gradual growth process, and the deepening of risk awareness is a sign of an investor's continuous maturity. And when an investor has the correct understanding of risk and can execute with the correct mindset, effectively avoiding risk, it is a successful investor.

    crude oilMarket trend analysis;

    Last Friday, Saudi Aramco announced9Official selling price of crude oil in the month（OSP）Saudi Arabia will9The price of Arab light crude oil in the Asian market is set to increase compared to the previous month0.9USD, compared to Oman/Average price decline in Dubai0.3USD. In addition, Saudi Arabia will9The monthly price of Arab light crude oil for the United States is set to be higher than the US sulfur crude oil index（ASCI）Ascending water1.65US dollars, unchanged from last month's selling price. take9The official selling price of Arab light oil for Northwest Europe on a monthly basis is relatively low8Monthly downward adjustment2.5USD, to the weighted average price of Brent crude oil in Europe(BWAVE)Sticker1.8USD. This is3The first price reduction proposed by Saudi Arabia since the launch of the oil price war in June. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia's move is not unfounded, as it is facing several concerns, the biggest of which is the declining profit margins of Asian refineries. Fan Chenjie predicts that given the unfavorable global economic outlook, international crude oil prices may experience a new round of decline in the second half of the year. Oil distribution is expected to fall back by the end of the year35dollar/Bucket, thereafter2021The average price for the entire year will also be only40The US dollar, followed by a long-term equilibrium price range of50-60USD, but global demand may arrive2025It will only return to the peak level before the outbreak of the epidemic in.

    Crude oil returned to the range yesterday, fluctuating and breaking through42.5After failing to stand firmly above this level, the previous range has not been effectively broken through, and the daily line still falls back to the inner oscillation of the Bollinger track, which cannot be ruled out as continuing to harvest the crossKLine, resulting in insufficient short-term bearish continuation. CurrentlyKThe linear pattern is relatively chaotic, and there is a lot of room for a pullback after a surge. Short term bulls lack continuity and still show some signs of volatility, but the range has slightly moved up. Pay attention to today's bullish continuation and see if they can regain lost ground again. Currently, the crude oil price is fluctuating repeatedly,4On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Belt runs three tracks upwards,MA5Under the moving averageMA10Moving average cross dead cross downward,KTransit between tracks in BolinMA5\MA20Between moving averages,MACDThe initial intersection of the fast and slow lines has a dead cross, and the downward green kinetic energy is emerging,KDThe third line shows a dead cross and continues to diverge downwards. The short-term performance of oil prices is volatile and strong. Today, Fan Chenjie suggests a pullback and long trading as the main approach. Follow Above42-42.5One line of resistance, pay attention below40.5-40Frontline support.

    goldMarket trend analysis;

    Monday(8month10day)At the beginning of the Asian market, spot gold slightly weakened and barely held on2020Near the checkpoint, last week's strong performance of US non farm data helped the US dollar rebound, causing some gold bulls to take profits and leave the market; On Monday, the US dollar index remained at93.40Nearby, and with some signs of stabilization in the short-term US dollar index, investors need to be wary of short-term pullback risks in gold prices and non US currencies. This week（8month10Solstice8month16Japan has welcomed multiple important economic data from China, with a focus on inflation data from various countries. As inflation plays a greater role in driving gold, this has become particularly important. In addition, pay attention to the new progress of the US stimulus bill, and the US will also release retail sales data. Additionally, global trade frictions remain an important point.

    From a technical perspective, gold prices started trading last week and after hitting the daily level upper track support, they rose significantly and stabilized2000At the same time as the pass, it continues to break new historical highs to2075The US dollar is currently experiencing a significant decline from its high level. But for now5The daily moving average support has stopped the decline, butKDJThe high position forms a dead fork,MACDThe red column has weakened slightly, and the high position of the fast slow line has slightly weakened, indicating that another retreat is not ruled out. Therefore, at the daily level, preliminary attention is being paid to the support from below2020The gains and losses of the US dollar. Further support on2014The key support is in the US dollar2010USD. Follow Above2040and2063USD, Breakthrough2063Or if you hit this point, you are optimistic about refreshing the high again2090Target level for US dollars. gold4From an hourly perspective, gold prices are currently at a standstill of30There is a rebound at the periodic line, butKDJandMACDThe overall indicator is still in a bearish signal, indicating that the decline has not been completely stopped. The upper level still needs to pay attention to the medium track and5The resistance of the periodic line breaks through. Overall, Fan Chenjie's personal suggestion for today's short-term operation is to focus on a pullback and a long position, with a focus on short-term operations above2055-2060Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2020-2015Frontline support.

    Chen Jie's Message:

    Why is it always difficult to trade? Is it because the market is not good now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset in which you view this market full of money. From Teacher Fan's personal perspective: Actually, this is not that the market itself is difficult to do, but that it can never pass its own level. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and I will come out. Finally, the market will reverse, and opportunities will flow away like this; This situation often occurs during self operation; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses with death; It is commonly known as the "inability to hold" operation, where the accuracy of position building and closing is not accurate. Friends who are in a hurry to list positions can follow Fan Chenjie

    writing/Fan Chenjie's Guidance Micro/fcj66886688