王铭鑫：非农落幕黄金下周趋势价格预测走势 ，黄金原油最新投资操作建议

　美国劳工部公布7月非农就业报告，表现好于预期。具体数据显示，美国7月新增非农就业高位176.30万，好于预期的增加148万，但远不及前值的增加480Ten thousand; United States7The monthly unemployment rate has decreased10.20%, lower than expected10.60%, previous value is11.10%。


　　尽管此次数据好于预期，但6月美国疫情反弹，令多地放缓了复工脚步，一些地区甚至再次封锁，虽然复苏停滞的问题可能不会反映在7月报告中，但如果社会活动持续当前趋势，则肯定会给未来几个月的就业报告带来压力。


Friday（8month7Day)goldT+DClosing up0.96%to445.72element/Ke, creating more than16Annual high; silverT+Drise3.23%to6485element/千克，创2012year12月以来的近八年新高。现货黄金再创历史新高至2075.47dollar/Ounces, currently back to2031.7附近，整体而言，美元弱势，美债收益率不断走低，尤其是5年期美债收益率。在相对价格方面，金/银比目前已从之前的124倍的峰值下降至72倍，但距离59倍的长期平均水平仍然有一段距离。


　　美国银行上调对于白银的价格预期，称受惠于财政刺激方案及美国总统候选人的环保方案，白银在中期内有望升至50dollar/盎司。美国银行指出，最近白银上涨主要来自投资者避险需求。与黄金类似，投资者出于对目前经济的担忧，增加了对白银的敞口。白银价格自今年3月以来已经上涨了100%。


　　美银提醒投资者，白银价格实际上更多受到工业需求的驱动，在疫情封锁期间这部分需求受到抑制。在相对价格方面，金/银比目前已从之前的124倍的峰值下降至72倍，但距离59倍的长期平均水平仍然有一段距离。随着工业制造商对白银的购买量回升，白银价格最近表现一直强于黄金。此外美国政府进一步放宽财政政策的前景也对白银价格起到支撑作用。


　　美国银行表示，随着大选的临近，民主党候选人拜登的环保政策大纲已经开始引起市场关注。其中最为关键的条款是，如果其当选将致力于实现2050年全美“零（碳）排放”。但白银供给则有限，过去五年，白银市场的平均供求平衡余额仅略超1100吨，这可能导致白银供不应求。                              
                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                   
    Analysis of International Spot Gold and London Gold Market:


　　随着全球贸易摩擦加剧，另外周末将至，王铭鑫认为投资者持有美元的意愿升温，此外，本周以来在美国疫情略有缓解的同时，欧洲多国感染人数却出现抬头，这也部分逆转了之前打压美元提振欧元的市场动能。周五现货黄金跌破2050dollar/Ounces, US dollar index rebounds, US7The overall monthly non farm payroll report was better than expected,COMEXMain Contract of Futures Fund5Accumulated transaction amount reached within minutes23.45亿美元，但分析师表示，就业人数意外上升的同时，高频数据也显示经济活动放缓。王铭鑫认为未来几个月，就业数据可能最早在8It is not surprising that there is a negative growth in the month. In addition, the United States7The monthly non farm employment data shows a decline in labor participation rate, which may be a major hidden concern behind the seemingly positive data.


Looking at the gold daily chart, it continues to rise with the opening of the Bollinger Bands, and the gold price continues to rise, breaking through the previous trading day2050USD to2055.78,Continuing to reach historical highs, bulls still show a strong position.MACDThe energy of the Golden Fork and Red Pillar continues to be strong,KDJHigh level bonding, index at90Nearby. From a technical perspective, gold prices remain optimistic and bullish, but there may be a risk of a pullback in the short term. The opening of the Bollinger Bands is upward, indicating that the gold's upward trend is still in a strong stage, coupled with the long position arrangement of the moving average,MA5Daily moving average2009Provide upward support for gold. Overall, the rise of gold has become a trend, and even if there is a pullback, it is an opportunity to go long. Looking at the four hours of gold, it has seen a significant increase in volatility. After falling from a high yesterday, the upward trend has come to a halt this morning, but it is still in the upward phase. Gold prices have continued to hit record highs and have slightly fallen, currently putting pressure on the Bollinger Bands.MACDThe energy of the Golden Fork and Red Pillar weakened slightly,KDJHigh preliminary dead cross, index close80.From the trend, gold is still bullish. Indicating that gold is expected to experience a pullback or volatility in the future. The most critical support for current gold is2020区域，几次回踩都没有跌破，成为现在黄金回调的最关键支撑。综合来看，黄金下周一短线操作思路上王铭鑫个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注2050-2055Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2020-2015一线支撑。文章只能给你一时的方向和思路，至于具体进场的点位和止盈时机，王铭鑫会实时给出，添加微信：ymsd06咨询王铭鑫获取实时指导提示。
  


Internationalfuturescrude oil，美原油行情解析：


United StatesWTI 9Monthly crude oil futures electronic price Thursday(8month6day)Closing down0.22美元。油价周四在五个月高位下方徘徊，收盘下跌，盘中对燃料需求的悲观情绪与对伊拉克减产的乐观情绪相互拉锯，导致油价在平盘上下起伏。人们仍然担忧新冠病毒大流行导致的经济放缓会抑制需求。每个人都在等待冠状病毒救援计划获得通过，以给经济带来支撑。稍早，伊拉克计划减产提振了原油价格。伊拉克表示，将在8月额外减产约4010000 barrels/日，以弥补过去一段时间未能完成石油输出国组织(OPEC)减产协议所规定的减产配额。前一交易日，在美国政府公布原油库存降幅远超预期后，两大指标原油升至3month6日以来最高。美元走软也对油价构成支撑，因对持有其他货币的投资者而言，以美元计价的油价更便宜。


Technical analysis: US crude oil4小时周期图来看，美原油走势震荡偏空，在突破了关键点41.35Afterwards, Meiyou once surged to43.60As of now, it has fallen back to42.0, still in a normal downward trend. From a moving average perspective,EMA144Mean Square andEMA169The moving averages provide support for US crude oil, while at the same time,MA60均线也在被向上突破后形成了支撑，就当前亚盘的回调幅度来看，美原油应该继续看多，结合前期美原油低点在逐渐抬高，日线级别收取三连阳，而本周的连阳来于美盘前承压回踩支撑，美盘开始上探走高破新高，不一样的走势，也就是美盘前反弹走高，美盘过后才承压回落，相同的是最终都收线了阳线，只是影线的位置不一样。对于下周的原油，需要注意一点，由于凌晨的回落，美盘没有突破重新回到小时图生命线42.5Above, short line internal rupture42关口将延续下探，综合来看，下周操作思路上王铭鑫个人建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注42.4-42.6Frontline resistance, short-term focus below40.5-40.3一线支撑。有套单的朋友，可单线笔者，由于笔者王铭鑫不知道你们套单的点位以及仓位的详细情况，不好给出相应的解套策略，需要解套的可单线微信（ ymsd06）
                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                 
    ===Investment always loses more and earns less?Four key tips for sustained and stable profitability===


Patience! Patience is an important skill, and being impatient or having distractions can easily lead to wrong decisions. Livermore once pointed out, "A successful trader must be like a successful businessman, able to correctly anticipate future demand, enter the market at the right time, and patiently wait for the moment of profitability.". This sentence has always been regarded as my professional code!


Balance! There has always been a saying in the industry that a good trader is a trader without opinions. The meaning of this statement is that good traders can give up their preference for the current bullish and bearish direction of the market, not be dominated by one side, and can objectively follow the market to trade. A successful trader is the one who "can't bear to see, but can be ruthless to see" and perfectly controls the balance of ups and downs. After a short-term failure, they can still have confidence in subsequent signals and execute them decisively without missing out. There is no absolute market, and there is no fixed trend of ups and downs. Therefore, judging the balance of market trends is your winning weapon.


Desire! There is an Italian proverb: Let money be our loyal servant, otherwise it will become a domineering master. Both bears and bulls can make money, but greed cannot make it. Are you controlling desires or do desires control you? The ancients said: Without accumulating silicon, one cannot walk a thousand miles; without accumulating small streams, one cannot form rivers and seas. I hope this sentence becomes a mutual encouragement between us.


Self aware! People value themselves, and it makes sense to put the big principles in any field, just like in the financial industry. Not knowing oneself will make mistakes, making mistakes will make you sad. People need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing, maintaining resilience, not having to trade in every band. The secret to trading profits is to follow simple rules, do simple things repeatedly, and strictly enforce them in the long run!


　  王铭鑫（指导VLetter:ymsd06）建立基本面变动模型，研判市场情绪变化，用以判断趋势。十余年锤炼的技术分析研判短线细节。中线为主，短线为辅。对汇市、金市、油市、股市、债市等全球主要金融市场都有深入而独特的见解。本文由王铭鑫撰写，王铭鑫用心写好每一段分析，传递有价值的投资理念。希望价有所值，值有所得；由于文章策略具有延时性；咨询王铭鑫获取最新实时行情分析。