Lv Wenhong8.5黄金晚间会跌吗？

　　goldnews flash:

Yesterday(8month4day)During the US market period, the gold market1975The US dollar rose significantly on the first line, and the short-term trend continued until early morning. As of now, it has reached its highest point2030The position of the US dollar. On the one hand, the US Congress has not yet fully agreed on a new round of stimulus plans. The US Treasury Secretary has stated that they aim to reach a stimulus plan agreement this week and hold a vote next week. At the same time, he stated that the new stimulus bill will not approach3.4万亿美元。由此来看，美国新一轮的刺激计划势在必行，为黄金上涨提供了绝佳的契机。央行的疯狂防水必然导致全球债券收益率大幅压低，美国十年期国债收益率跌至0.512%，实际利率跌至2013年的水准。全球美元债券市场规模达60万亿美元，超60%的收益率低于1%。从目前的情况来看，未来多年的低利率预期，将继续成为黄金上涨最重要的推手，也是黄金看多的核心因素。另一方面，疫情的影响仍在继续，欧美不少国家形式依然严峻，截止昨日(8month4day)上午，全球累计确诊超1800万人，累计死亡68.79万例，美国确诊已超470万，经济再次失去动力，避险情绪爆发，推动黄金大幅上涨。

　　国际黄金技术分析：黄金昨日整理蓄势后突破1985高点阻力加速推动上涨，美指反弹两个交易日重新转阴下行。消息方面在超低利率环境、严峻的经济和地缘政治风险中，投资者继续为资产寻求避风港；黄金直接越过2000Da Guan, Refreshing the Inertia of Opening Today's Morning Market2030高位。日线局部整理后再次冲高放量，以横向整理代替回调。反复的蓄势冲高向上。日线仍处于上升趋势当中。至于这波浪形何时止涨，需要形态上的确认，以及消息面的转换。否则这种慢涨逼空还将持续。由于波动基数加大。在冲高放量的过程中。做多要严格带好损位。一旦出现快速的回落，极容易在高位形成套单。黄金4Breaking through the sorting interval during the hour1982-1985The high point forms a continuous positive release,MACDRaise the golden fork again. Short lineKThe line structure and indicators are still rising again. The short-term moving average forms a critical point for unilateral bulls.4Hours do not close on10Below the unit moving average, it will continue to rise slowly in the short term.1Hour chart and30Due to the continuous surge of the minute chart,KD指标超买。短线或许会伴随回调修正。预计亚盘冲高后会形成停顿高位或者回落修正过渡至欧盘。美盘再惯性的走法。故亚盘高位依旧不追多，先择高位短线看空一波。回落启稳后再决定是否反手多，如若是直接快速下跌。则要避开高位急速扫单下挫行情。综合来看，黄金今日短线操作思路上吕文鸿个人建议以回调做多为主，上方短期重点关注2045-2050Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2000-1995一线支撑。想了解更多实时具体策略添加笔者公众号：“吕文鸿”口末亻言wh35636会在实战中实时布局更新

　　crude oilnews flash:

　　欧市盘中，美国原油futuresPrice at40美元上方震荡下跌近2%，原因是人们担心在主要产油国增产之际，全球新一波新冠病毒疫情引发了更严格的封锁，燃料需求刚刚出现的复苏迹象可能戛然而止。美国原油期货价格报40.34dollar/Barrel1.66%; Brent crude oil futures price report43.44dollar/Barrel1.68%. Monday(8month3day)美国原油期货上涨1.84%，布伦特原油期货上涨1.45%，亚洲、欧洲和美国的制造业数据好于预期，这些数据显示，工厂正在从早期新冠病毒大流行的影响中走出。树傲认为全球制造业数据表现相当令人鼓舞，但仍有相当多的证据表明，随着新冠疫情的复苏，石油需求的复苏在一些市场停滞不前。

　　国际原油技术面分析：原油日线MACDandKDJDeadfork signal continuation,5Daily moving average underpass10日均线初步死叉，原油下破布林带中轨，短线有进一步向下试探布林带下轨38.93附近支撑的趋势，该位置在7月中旬多次被测试，支撑相对较强，若下破则下行空间将被重新打开；强支撑在6month15Daily low point34.36Nearby, this position is from3月跳空低开以来被多次测试，参考性较强，预计短期下破可能性不大。整体来看，原油偏向于下行，因有迹象显示油市重新回归到期货溢价的模式，显示现货市场需求疲软，这和4月美原油一度跌至负值的市场结构一致。吕文鸿预计本周美原油将结束四周连阳的走势。同时全球最大的独立石油储存公司警告因需求疲软，原油存储空间存在再度耗尽的风险。不过，由于布林带下轨目前仍为原油提供之前，且7月中旬多次试探均未能有效下破，若原油坚守该位置，则后市将仍然维持此前的窄幅震荡格局；上方阻力首先关注41关口，突破则依次上看布前期高点42.51，该位置同时靠近布林带上轨，阻力相对较强，原油需要突破该位置才能有效扭转目前的弱势格局；所以综合分析操作上吕文鸿建议反弹高空低多操作即可。上方关注42.0-42.3One line of resistance, pay attention below39-39.2一线支撑。想了解更多实时具体策略添加笔者公众号：“吕文鸿”口末亻言wh35636会在实战中实时布局更新

　　关于做单经验分享：

　　1.Reasonably control the position. This is something that self management must do. Personally, I believe that only by controlling your position reasonably can you have the opportunity to make stable profits. Otherwise, even if your account has made profits before, it is best not to exceed the first time you place an order1Standard hand (In the later stage, you can increase your position according to the market situation, achieving doubling regardless of whether it is long or short. In a good market situation, if the entry order is profitable, you can do it one by one. On the contrary, if the entry order is losing money, do not increase your position against the market unless you do not want to profit in this market.).

　　2.Looking at the overall trend, some investors are thinking all day that the market has fallen so much, it should be a bottom, so they enter the market with more orders, or they are thinking that if they have risen so much, it should be a head, so they enter the short order. Often the market disappoints these people, why? Because the market is not taken for granted, it has its own laws. Before entering an individual order, there is a technique to see if the market is bullish or bearish, and to enter the market after a small correction. Chasing up and killing down is not feasible, and skill is the most important thing.

　　3.Learn to control your mindset, it's strange. Some students earn money when they make it1reach2The US dollar will be liquidated and out of the market, when losses occur10-20If you continue to stay above US dollars, you are willing to lose money but not willing to make money. You should know that a successful operator may not necessarily achieve the correct rate50%But this is not enough50％的盈利机会要把亏损赚回来之外，还赚了一番。要学会面对这个变幻莫测的市场，市场的走向就是人心的走向，我们应该多去学习，改正自己交易上的缺点，直面错误，严格律己。投资是一个完整体系，包括投资理念，资金管理，投资策略，投资心态，风险控制，操作手法与思路等

What are the precautions for novice spot gold and crude oil investment?

1、 Avoid 'guessing the top and bottom'. There are many factors that affect the price of gold. In the current global inflation situation, the hedging function of gold has been strengthened, leading to an increase in gold demand and an increase in gold prices. Due to the fact that the lowest point can be encountered but not sought, it is recommended to buy when the gold price is relatively stable or low. In addition, when buying and selling gold, one should not focus solely on short-term gold prices, while ignoring the trend of whether gold prices are in a "big bear" or "big bull". However, from historical experience, there is a seasonal demand for gold. Due to the Indian wedding festival at the end of the third quarter each year, there is a strong demand for spot gold in the market. Therefore, gold prices usually rise at the end of the third and fourth quarters of each year.

2、 Avoid 'fast in and fast out'. As an unprofessional ordinary investor, wanting to speculate and profit through fast forward and fast out methods may end in disappointment. Inexperienced investors, after buying or selling a certain product at the beginning of the trading, immediately think of closing the market to collect money as soon as they see a profit. Making profits and closing positions may seem easy, but capturing the timing of profits is a discipline. Experienced investors will determine the time to close their positions based on their own judgment of price trends. If he believes that the market situation will further develop in a favorable direction for him, he will be patient, knowing that it is beneficial but not making a profit, and let the price develop in a more favorable direction as much as possible, thus continuing the profit.

3、 Avoid "too many configurations". Gold is an investment tool for the medium to long term, and investors should have the psychological preparation to invest and collect in the long term. They should not look too much at short-term trends and should not have a mentality of taking chances. During the investment process, when the price of gold has risen significantly, investors must be cautious about whether to make large purchases. Although gold has the characteristic of long-term risk resistance, its investment return rate is relatively low, and the proportion of gold investment in personal investment portfolios should not be too high.

　　文鸿寄语：

I write every post in the hope of meeting someone who is destined. I hope to help investors in need, no matter how they first feel. We should give each other a chance to get to know each other. I believe that being able to read so many words is fate. Investment is mostly based on fate. If you believe in fate and believe that I can do something for you with my heart, you can try to communicate with me. I hope friends with teachers can also communicate with me. No one can accompany you to the ends of the earth, perhaps one day you will need me.

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　　【吕文鸿】做单原则：本金为皇、顺势为王、点位为相、止损至圣！

Full guidance time: early7：30In the early morning of the next day4;00

　　吕文鸿   wh35636