Zhou Hongjin:7.31黄金再探高点，原油多空角力；晚间原油黄金走势分析

Summary:goldTrend analysis, gold trading strategy, gold market analysiscrude oilTrend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions
　　
The rapid transition between long and short positions in the investment market always catches us off guard. In the face of fierce market fluctuations, we must understand how to adjust our strategies in a timely manner. War is unpredictable, and water is unpredictable. Only by taking advantage of the situation can we be adept and stand undefeated. Life requires a good mindset. The progress and quality of life sometimes depend on our mindset. Effort is a result, and giving up is also a result. Just different moods have different outcomes, your smiling sky is blue, and your crying sky is cloudy. Learning to invest requires a good mindset. To live a good life, you need a good mindset, which determines the success or failure of your investment.
　　
Message interpretation:
　　
　　7month31日，现货黄金持续走高，盘中再度续刷历史高点，正在赢得养老基金、保险公司和私人财富专家等更广泛的支持者。基金经理们对黄金产生了兴趣，因为他们在追求高收益率的投资环境中寻求回报。创纪录的黄金投资浪潮推动金价升至纪录高位，在截至6月的六个月内，投资者对于黄金投资达到了创纪录的1131Tons of gold.
　　
　　原油方面，美油多空角力，价格自6Has been hovering since the beginning of the month40dollar/桶左右，预计石油需求在明年之前可能都不会完全恢复。油价前一交易日创一个多月来最大跌幅，因数据显示美国经济出现纪录最严重的萎缩，并且鉴于成百上千万的美国人仍然失业，需求预计将疲软。自6月初以来，纽约原油futuresAlways on40dollar/桶左右徘徊。鸿金预计，石油需求在明年之前可能都不会完全恢复。
　　
1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold
　　
　　因黄金持续上行的走势引发部分获利抛盘，同时有关疫苗进展的消息也对黄金构成压力，在触及历史新高之后，黄金价格周四回落，终结了此前连续9The rise in trading days hit the largest decline in nearly two months; Daily lineMACDGold fork, red can weaken somewhat,KDJ三线在超买粘合；布林带开口向上，金价徘徊在上轨下方，指示金价上行收到一定压制，短线需要警惕震荡回落的风险；5Daily moving average1960.21It is the initial support below, further supporting the low point of the previous trading day1939.54附近，若下破，则削弱短线看涨信号；
　　
Overall, gold is expected to experience a short-term decline in physical demand and high profit taking, leading to increased volatility in the near future. However, global easing, a weakening US dollar, and high economic downward pressure will continue to drive investors to buy gold. This trend will continue until at least the uncertainty in the market subsides after the US election. However, there is still a need to be vigilant that optimistic news about vaccine progress may hit gold prices. Technically speaking, gold prices have recovered again within the day1970The US dollar level is approaching1980USD; The moving average is still in a long position, if gold prices persist5Above the daily moving average, there is still an opportunity for further upward movement, with attention from above2011The historical high point since 19491981.17附近阻力压制，若突破该位置，则金价将进一步向2000美元大关发起冲击！综合来看，尽管金价在创历史高位后引发部分获利抛盘回吐部分涨幅，但整体多头趋势依然完好；鉴于今日周线，月线收官，投资者仍然需要高度警惕多头大规模抛盘造成的回落，建议暂时关注1940-1980区间突破情况，短线操作思路上周鸿金zh66646个人建议期间内高沽低渣即可，破位区间再调整思路；
　　
Focus on resistance above:1981.17、2000；
　　
Focus on support below:1960.21、1939.54；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
2、 Analysis of the trend of US crude oil
　　
　　因周四美国二季度GDP数据创大萧条以来最差水平，且失业人数回升。同时美国迟迟未能出台刺激措施，且美国政治的不确定性进一步打击市场的情绪，美原油一度大跌6%。技术面来看，日线MACDandKDJDeadfork signal continuation,5Daily moving average underpass10日均线初步死叉，油价下破布林带中轨，短线有进一步向下试探布林带下轨38.9附近支撑的趋势，该位置在7月中旬多次被测试，支撑相对较强，若下破则下行空间将被重新打开；强支撑在6month15Daily low point34.36Nearby, this position is from3月跳空低开以来被多次测试，参考性较强，预计短期下破可能性不大。
　　
　　整体来看，油价偏向于下行，因有迹象显示油市重新回归到期货溢价的模式，显示现货市场需求疲软，这和4月美原油一度跌至负值的市场结构一致。鸿金预计本周美原油将结束四周连阳的走势。同时全球最大的独立石油储存公司警告因需求疲软，原油存储空间存在再度耗尽的风险。不过，由于布林带下轨目前仍为油价提供之前，且7月中旬多次试探均未能有效下破，若油价坚守该位置，则后市将仍然维持此前的窄幅震荡格局；上方阻力首先关注41关口，突破则依次上看布前期高点42.51，该位置同时靠近布林带上轨，阻力相对较强，油价需要突破该位置才能有效扭转目前的弱势格局；综合来看，短线操作操作思路上周鸿金zh66646个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
Focus on resistance above:41、42.51；
　　
Focus on support below:38.9、37；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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