吕文鸿；7.28黄金原油投资建议，投资黄金原油如何避免亏.damage

大行情抓不住，小区间拿不准，不是在抗单就是在扫损！相信很多投资者朋友都遇到过的问题，那么问题的症结出在哪里？原因很简单，因为你做单没有章法、不懂理性，总是在追涨杀跌，凭感觉做单，老师实力不济，屡屡将你带偏，小赚即出，大亏却一个不漏！当你拿着大把的本金进入这个市场，你本来有大赚一笔的资本，但却将一把好牌打的稀巴烂。做单，首看趋势，其次看点位！有理由的操作，无论对错及时检讨，这才是投资！

　　

Message interpretation:

　　

　　gold面，美国商品futures委员会(CFTC)The latest data shows that as of7month21日当周黄金投机性多头仓位增加3856Hand, to181256手；同时空头仓位减少了1440Hand contract, to40987手，暗示市场看涨黄金热情依旧高涨。

　　

　　本周美联储将公布最新利率决议，市场普遍预期美联储进一步放鸽，美元指数总体较为弱势，甚至有加速下行风险，支撑金价走高。数据方面，周一(7month27day)U.S.A6月耐用品订单增长超预期，得益于汽车需求的大幅反弹，在一定程度上施压金价。但受制于美国疫情二次爆发，美国就业市场再次恶化，经济数据持续向好概率不大。黄金下行空间或受限。全球央行宽松基调不改，叠加地缘摩擦持续升级背景下，黄金多头较为强势。然而投资者需警惕金价冲高多头获利了结施压金价风险。

　　

　　crude oil面，美国参议院在周一(7month27day)提出一份加强版的新冠疫情援助计划。同时美联储为了阻止经济危机不惜一切将利率维持在较低水平，在一定程度上利于美国经济复苏，提振原油需求。

　　

Monday(7month27day)公布经济数据有所回暖，法国劳工部数据显示6月份失业人口创史上最大月度降幅。美国6月份耐用品订单增长超预期，经济数据有所回暖，改善原油需求，支撑油价。综合来看，供给端，欧佩克产油国集团仍在执行高额减产协议。美国原油钻井数维持在较低水平，美国原油产量或将受限。需求端，近期经济数据有所回暖，欧美经济体实行超级宽松政策，有利于经济的复苏，改善原油需求，提振油价。

　　

Gold Technology Analysis:

　　

　　周二亚盘时段，现货黄金冲高后明显回落。短线急挫超50USD, lowest touch1933附近，日内转跌。 Data display,COMEXThe most active gold futures contract is in Beijing time11:03-11:05三分钟内成交量为6768The total value of trading contracts exceeds13亿美元。欧盘稍做调整后又急速下挫最低触及1906附近开始反弹。

　　

　　此前，现货黄金在早盘盘初时段涨势凌厉。小幅低开后迅速反弹，一度上破1980At the critical juncture, reaching a new historical high; The US dollar index has fallen for the eighth consecutive trading day, hitting its lowest point during trading2018year6month15The current low point. Before the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve began, funds were reducing their holdings in the US dollar. Breakthrough of spot gold1980The US dollar continued to hit a record high, but then plummeted rapidly50The US dollar, taking back all recent gains, is mainly due to the impact of profit taking by investors. Despite a pullback in gold prices, there are still many positive factors supporting the gold market on a fundamental level, coupled with the demand for bargain hunting, which will further increase in the future.

　　

From a daily perspective, gold prices have continued to soar, and as of today8Lianyang, wave amplitude exceeding185USD. In terms of indicators,MACDThe energy of the golden cross and red kinetic column has increased, coupled with the upward movement of the Bollinger Bands, the bullish cloud band has also remained intact, and the signals of various lines remain bullish. The gold price is still optimistic and upward, but it is worth noting that due to the impact of fund smashing in the morning, the gold quickly plunged below today's starting point, andKDJSending a serious overbought signal,The random indicator is turning downwards and attempting to form a dead cross, indicating that gold is facing a decline or high level adjustment. From the hourly line, the price of gold fluctuates back and forth, directly reaching20On the front line of the daily moving average, after a wave of retreat, short-term gold will enter a correction, and bulls will continue to exert strength in the future;KDJ低位有转头金叉迹象，尽管金价盘中大幅跳水，但仍建议不要盲目做空，任何回调都可能是投资者买入的好时机。综合来看，短线上操作上吕文鸿个人建议下方关注1905-1900一线强支撑，只要金价运行于上轨上方，仍然是超级强势行情，反之将削弱市场看涨情绪，短线上方关注1940-1950一线压力，进一步则关注今日高点1980Gateway.

　　

Technical analysis of crude oil:

　　

　　昨日下探回升收高，日图仍处于收缩区间中震荡，暂时还未走出区间，大区间43-40.0拉锯当中，而昨日整体区间不大，只是拉锯的频繁较大，围绕42.0-40.50间来回拉锯。今日短线依旧先看局部区间43-42.0之间，暂时未放量式的突破，单边延续不定。小时图暂时走出一波下探回升的思路，短线或许伴随再次摸高42.30-42.50的可能，但是能否突破决定这波回升的延续性，上探不破，仍有可能会重新回归区间震荡。操作上吕文鸿建议日内短线先依托40.50做防守回踩41.0先短线多一次。上方暂时看42.0-42.30附近。短线操作上回调做多为主，高空为辅。由于笔者吕文鸿不知道你们套单的点位以及仓位的详细情况，不好给出相应的解套策略，需要解套的可单联本人.

　　

　　关于套牢：

　　

　　对于套牢之后的减仓或斩仓，以我的经验来看，投资者在做这样的操作时，下手必须要狠要果断，特别是在下跌趋势中。很多投资的都有这样的操作经历，套牢之后天天盼解套，终于等到有一天解套了，又不甘心了。我都拿了这么多天了，怎么也要赚一些钱。结果错过了最好的平仓机会，当市场重新进入下跌，又再次被套。最终彻底绝望，丧失信心割肉出局。这是下跌趋势中最忌讳的。

　　

　　套牢之后，无论如何处理都是被动的操作，解套固然是投资者必须掌握的基本功，但是投资者更应该把精力放在套牢之前，想办法提高分析技巧和买卖水平，尽可能减少被套牢的次数，始终占据资金和心态的主动。

　　

The market situation is difficult to predict. In daily operations, many friends who engage in hedging may come to seek solutions. Hedging is basically the most common problem among investors nowadays, especially during the big market, when the direction of gold and crude oil's sudden rise and fall is difficult to predict. It is important for investors to control risks and take measures to stop profits and losses. We may sweep losses due to misjudgment, but once hedging occurs, So what follows closely is taking on orders or even cutting the flesh. Even if we unwind, we cannot expect to make a profit. The final loss is much more than the initial sweep loss. Therefore, we hope everyone remembers that when investing, we must first learn to control risks, and then profit.

　　

Author/Lv Wenhong  wh35636