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gold面,本周黄金多头强势发力,自1806美元一线连续大幅上涨,截止目前已经触及1898美元的位置,多头表现非常强势,剑指1920美元的历史高点。由于疫情的持续反弹,美国全国感染人数超400万,其中最严重的加州确诊人数超40万,近期美国疫情出现明显反弹,进一步加重市场的担忧情绪,助长了黄金多头的强势。
因为疫情的影响,美国经济前景愈发黯淡,部分州因疫情重启经济计划被迫搁置,经济活动受到限制。从申请失业金人数来看,(7month23day)晚间公布的初期失业金人数达141.6万人,总体维持100万人之上,另外续请失业金人数仍达到1600万人,表明美国就业仍不容乐观,此次非农数据或受到很大影响。
crude oil面,近期原油近5周围绕40美元上下波动,表明近期油市处于平衡状态。在供应方面总体变化不大的情况下,需求方面的变动对油价波动影响加剧。考虑到油价近期仍处于40-42美元区间,若冲破该震荡区域,料波幅将会加剧。
(7month23day)公布了美国初请数据,疫情影响之下,美国就业人数或出现较大的下滑。与此同时,市场下调原油需求预期,导致油价停滞不前。另外随着疫情蔓延的态势,不排除部分国家再度实施封锁的可能性,这将进一步打压油价。由于需求下降的预期,原油库存的变化将变得非常重要。从本周公布的原油库存数据来看,美国原油库存和产量同时出现增加,美国原油库存攀升至48910000 barrels to5.3658Billion barrels, for2017year10月以来最高水平,相较过去五年平均水平高19%。这一方面限制了原油的涨幅。
Analysis of Gold Technology and Next Week's Strategy:
With the significant increase in gold prices, it continues to brush up close9年高位,短线上方无明显阻力,目标位先上看前高1900关口附近,甚至可能测试2011year9Touched by the moon1920附近;一旦突破,将进一步提振此前市场预测“金价年内将测试2000美元”的乐观预期。若金价出现回调,建议不要盲目高位做空,任何回调都可能是投资者买入的好时机。4小时级别黄金盘整后拉升;布林带三轨均向上,金价续刷近9年高位,目前承压于上轨。MACDThe golden cross, but the energy of the red pillar weakens,KDJHigh preliminary dead cross, index close80Nearby. From the trend perspective, gold is still bullish, but there may be a slight pullback in the short term. On the upward side, pay attention to the Bollinger Bands on the track first1907Nearby suppression, if the material is broken and tested upwards1920Nearby. Preliminary support below1890Nearby, if you fall through the material, step back1880附近。综合来看,下周一短线操作思路上志豪点金建议以回调做多为主,上方短期重点关注1915-1920Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1880-1885一线支撑。由于笔者志豪点金不知道你们套单的点位以及仓位的详细情况,不好给出相应的解套策略,需要解套的可单线本人(官微:bzd99996327)
原油技术分析及下周策略:
原油周五收盘于41.3,周五出现了探底回升低位震荡,没有出现油价大幅溃散的走势,周线级别上看,周线收线小阳线,带有上引线,出现冲高回落,但是破近半年新高,触及了3月的跳空天阙的阻力位置,若上破后,有望出现进一步走高。但是长期均线依然运行在油价上方向下运行,进一步形成压力,目前处于一个相对震荡的多头格局中。
日线级别上看,日线收小阳线,在本周前三日出现了三连阳后回落,进一步表明了油价上方42.5-43.0区域位置阻力很强劲,进一步上破可能还需要利好消息面刺激和市场统一,或者时间积累了。布林带出现了收口迹象,油价运行在中上轨,中轨出现了向上拐头迹象,趋势指标上多头趋势线金叉后出现了萎靡状况,但是只要守住金叉不变,大概率将出现新一轮上涨格局,就油价下行我们首先需要关注40.5-40.0区域支撑,因为在7月初乃至中旬该区域一直是震荡箱体的阻力位,比较明显,在近期突破后,根据阻力位转换支撑的影响下,我会着重考虑该位置支撑,若下破后,就将考验39.3-39.0位置支撑。上行方面,短期内需要考虑42.5位置阻力,在本周走势中就是在该位置久攻不破,随后多头出现败走,若下周能够收复该位置大概率将打开上方空间。综合来看志豪点金官微:bzd99996327建议下周操作上考虑回撤布局多单为主,短线上方关注42.5-43.0USD resistance, follow below40.5-40.0USD support.
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1.Investors who hold high positions can use the rebound market to unwind and exit, or reduce their positions when they encounter high positions; Once the market changes, the covered orders will immediately stop losing and be eliminated, and reverse positions will be established to compensate for losses;
2.Investors with mid range hedging can temporarily wait and see, do not rush to cut orders. If there is an opportunity in the market, they can reduce their positions appropriately and increase their positions based on trend analysis combined with technical analysis to make up for losses;
3.Investors who hold low positions can use the pullback market to unwind and exit, or reduce their positions on dips; Once there is a change in the market, the orders will be placed to stop losses and exit, and reverse positions will be established to compensate for losses.
Author: Zhihao Dianjin(Guidance hotline:bzd99996327)
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