GKFXPrimeJiekai Finance: A股美股齐上涨，黄金能否打开上方空间？

周一开盘之后，以中国股市为代表的风险资产猛然发力，点燃了资本市场的狂欢。沪指狂飙超过5%Breakthrough3000点。其中权重股中被誉为宇宙第一大行的工商银行股价飙升8.53%。无独有偶，晚间美股中的纳斯达克100指数又创出新高，达到10615点。近期风险资产的飙升主要是由经济数据向好推动。

美国部分经济数据恢复上行

以非农数据为例，7month2号公布的6月就业报告中再次打破人们预期。新增就业人数达到480Ten thousand people, unemployment rate from13.3%Descend to11.1%。而具有前瞻性的PMIIndex,6monthISM非制造业指数高达57.1，直接突破50荣枯线

（美国失业率走势）

（美国非制造业PMI）

与经济数据同步上涨的，还有美国新冠确诊人数。截至7month6日，美国已经有304万例人确诊，死亡13.2万例，死亡率4.3%。目前市场的确出现了一个看似矛盾的现象：经济数据在转好，新冠确诊病例在上涨。西方政府如特朗普政府强力推动经济开放，意大利、西班牙、德国等国家进入重启阶段也已将近2个月，欧盟从7month1号重新开放边境。恰恰是发达国家将经济运行置于人民生命健康之上的地位，导致了这看似不合理的双增长状况

US stocks andgold或重现2009-2011年走势

黄金和股市能否同时上涨呢？回顾历史，的确会出现这样状况：在超低利率状况下，资金会同时涌入股市和黄金，此时黄金更多体现保值属性而非避险属性。下图是2009Year to2011年黄金和纳斯达克100指数的走势，同样是在危机后的恢复阶段，受到货币政策的刺激，两者双双走高，涨幅非常接近。

（2009-2011year 黄金与纳斯达克100指数走势）

目前黄金紧贴上涨通道维持高位运行，短期看上涨动力仍未枯竭。逢高做空的风险较大，黄金走势进入“进二退一”的阶梯式上涨行情，留意通道底部1773dollar.

（XAU/USD 4Hour chart, sourceGKFXPrime）

NASDAQ100index4小时图呈现多头主导的上涨趋势，RSI指标高于70说明多头非常强大，已经进入了超买行情，此时做空风险较大。

（NAS100index4Hour chart, sourceGKFXPrime）

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