Liang Qiandong7.1晚间时评黄金暴涨空单如何解套？原油操作建议附解套

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-----goldMarket trend analysis-----

Wednesday（7month1日）现货黄金维持在1780美元上方窄幅震荡，金价周二突破1780美元，升至2012year10月以来最高水平，创下自2016year3月以来的最大季度涨幅。因全球疫情病例与日俱增，使得投资者对黄金的避险需求保持活跃。随着金价突破擦前高位震荡区间，令押注多头的交易受到鼓舞。长期以来被认为是对冲通胀和货币贬值工具的黄金，在多国推出刺激措施以支持受疫情打击的经济的推动下连续第三个月上涨。日内关注美联储6月纪要有关收益率曲线控制的措辞、美国ADP就业人数、以及6monthISMmanufacturingPMI。值得注意，如果金价持稳于1780美元上方，短期料测试1800美元大关。此外，还需关注美元的表现，美元在6月创下自去年12月以来最差月度表现。经济复苏的预期和美国疫情二次蔓延使得美元近期波动加剧，一旦市场消化了美国经济复苏的预期，需警惕避险资金再次流入美元，可能仍会限制黄金的涨幅。

Gold fluctuated in a narrow range yesterday, reaching its highest level1775.minimum1765.60.High level contraction consolidation closing, daily chart harvest with small yin starsKLine. entityKThe line is too small, and the long and short continuity is insufficient. The daily chart is still in10Strong consolidation of high positions above the daily line. There was limited room for yesterday's pullback. Indicating short-term or bullish strength. Organize and accumulate momentum horizontally. Underneath backtesting not broken1747低点。日图维持看涨趋势不变。梁乾东从4The hour is undergoing a cycle of yin and yang conversion. entityKThe small size of the line causes the space to begin to shrink, temporarily after the large positive line, the starKLine organization and accumulation. At present, there is no room for a breakthrough. HoweverKIn terms of line structure, last week we retreated and held on1745Above all, this week, before breaking this level, the short-term trend is mainly bullish, especially4小时完成了下探回升的收复。短线局部停顿倾向整理蓄势上涨。留意后市再次的发力冲高破高，既然没有顶部止涨。横向整理就当作是空头的蓄势准备。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上梁乾东建议高空为主，低多为辅。上方关注1799-1804One line of resistance, pay attention below1775-1770Frontline support.

-----crude oilMarket trend analysis-----

Wednesday(7month1day)International oil prices have risen by over2%，刷新一周高位。上日公布的行业报告显示，美国原油库存降幅大于预期，表明即使冠状病毒爆发在全球蔓延，能源需求仍在改善。石油输出国组织(OPEC)6月份产量降至二十年来最低水平，也支撑了油价。北京时间16:31，NYMEXcrude oilfuturesrise2.60%to40.29dollar/Barrel;ICEBrent crude oil futures up2.49%to42.31dollar/桶。两市均创下6month24日以来新高，分别至40.37dollar/Bucket and42.36dollar/Bucket. American Petroleum Institute(API)Tuesday(6month30day)晚间发布的数据显示，美国原油和汽油库存下降幅度超过预期。原油库存减少815.6万桶，分析师的预期为减少95Ten thousand barrels; Reduced gasoline inventory245.9Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect a decrease164.6万桶。梁乾东认为全球新冠感染病例增加可能引发进一步限制措施，导致经济复苏和石油需求放缓。人们对燃料的需求下降了约三分之一，全球石油供给充盈，今年晚些时候的价格可能会受到限制。

原油昨日下探回升收高，最低回踩37.50Steady recovery, hold on37.0Low point rebound to recover lost ground, while recovering in the late trading session39.30High point. The daily chart shows a positive line in the harvest, recovering some of the previous losses and closing at39.30Above. Reconnect the perimeter30周线附近。留意今明两日能否蓄势突破，不破则会继续在高位震荡拉锯。当然大方向看涨不变，短线局部修正也是为了蓄势。只是突破的时间不定，目前短线开始进入拉锯震荡当中。4The hourly low rebound failed to continue the correction of the second wave, while the consecutive positive rebound closed at39.30Above, the small periodic structure steps down the channel. Start stable in37.0Above. This week's thinking needs to be adjusted appropriately, relying on37.0Defend at a low point and take a pullback, but the process is expected to be volatile and circuitous. fall drastically37.0It will deepen the adjustment space. At present, we have already shaken off a certain distance from the low point and have also broken through at the same time39.30.短线相对偏向多头，但是考虑到周线处于夹角区间当中，暂时走不出单边。综合来看，今日原油短线操作思路上梁乾东建议高空为主，低多为辅。原油上方关注41.4-41.9One line of resistance, pay attention below39.0-38.5Frontline support.