Xie Hongyuan:6.30黄金原油日内行情分析及操作策略

　　goldMessage surface:
　　
　　6month29日欧市价金转涨交投于1770美元上方，市场对全球新增新冠肺炎感染病例激增的担忧削弱了投资者对经济迅速反弹的乐观情绪，并促使投资者转向避险金属。本周的走势取决于宏观经济数据表现，重点留意提前于周四(7month2day)Published in the United States6月非农就业报告，糟糕数据有望支撑金价，此外市场开始对美国大选民调结果有反应了，如果结果显示美统会换人，那么会为黄金市场提供推动。
　　
Gold technology:
　　
　　技术面来看，由于对感染病例增加的担忧引发对避险资产的需求激增，现货黄金徘徊逾七年半最高水平，年内涨幅约17％。日线布林线轨道开口，MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉，虽然金价上行仍然受到布林线上轨压制，但市场避险情绪浓厚，金价仍然存在进一步走高的迹象，上方首先关注上周触及的逾七年半高点1779.53This position is also close to the Bollinger Line track. If it breaks through this position, the gold price will further impact1800Gateway;
　　
　　不过，随着美债收益率的上升和地缘风险的集中爆发而引燃恐慌情绪，届时黄金一类的避险资产也恐遭到无差别抛售。且KDJ指标也运行在超买区域，若金价无法突破1780At the integer level, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the downside risk caused by long profit selling, with initial support below the daily low point1767Nearby, this location is also5The daily moving average is located,10The daily moving average is supported by1750.95Nearby, if it falls below, the gold price may further step back on the middle track of the Bollinger Line1731.07Nearby support, this position is also close20日均线支撑，若意外下破，则增加看空信号；综合来看，鸿远认为，由于金价短线涨幅较大，且上行仍然受到一定的阻力压制，短线需要警惕多头获利抛盘造成的回落风险，后市继续布林线上轨和1780突破情况，若不能突破这两个阻力点，鸿远个人建议择机高位做空，若突破，则可顺势做多，目标看向1800；
　　
Focus on resistance above:1780、1800；
　　
Focus on support below:1766.96、1750.95；
　　
　　crude oilMessage surface:
　　
Monday（6month29日），在4月份达到历史低点之后，随着各国对疫情封锁的限制开始解除，全球石油价格在未来几个月可能会继续上涨。尽管数据显示，全球新冠病毒死亡病例超过50万例，确诊超过1000万例，表明大流行病还远远没有结束，但预计各国不会进行再度封锁。
　　
In the6month24日由S&P Global Platts主办的全球高管石油虚拟会议上，分析师指出，全球供应减少以及需求回报快于预期，使得布油和美油价格均保持上涨趋势。预计到今年年底，油价将稳定在50to60dollar/桶之间，但仍未达到大流行前的水平。
　　
　　巴黎国际能源机构石油市场主管尼尔·阿特金森在会议上说：“我们认为最坏的情况已经过去了，市场正在逐步调整。”
　　
Technical aspects of crude oil:
　　
　　原油昨日下探回升收高，最低回踩37.50Steady recovery, hold on37.0Low point rebound to recover lost ground, while recovering in the late trading session39.30High point. The daily chart shows a positive line in the harvest, recovering some of the previous losses and closing at39.30Above. Reconnect the perimeter30周线附近。留意今明两日能否蓄势突破，不破则会继续在高位震荡拉锯。当然大方向看涨不变，短线局部修正也是为了蓄势。只是突破的时间不定，目前短线开始进入拉锯震荡当中。
　　
Short line chart:4The hourly low rebound failed to continue the correction of the second wave, while the consecutive positive rebound closed at39.30Above, the small periodic structure steps down the channel. Start stable in37.0Above. This week's thinking needs to be adjusted appropriately, relying on37.0Defend at a low point and take a pullback, but the process is expected to be volatile and circuitous. fall drastically37.0It will deepen the adjustment space. At present, we have already shaken off a certain distance from the low point and have also broken through at the same time39.30.短线相对偏向多头，但是考虑到周线处于夹角区间当中，暂时走不出单边。故日内短线先看区间震荡。初步区间看38.50-40.50.稍微大一点看38.20-41.0.日内思路暂定先扬后抑。
　　
Crude oil:1、首次回踩38.30先多 Stop loss0.5dollar target39.30-39.80.
　　
　　2、首次反弹40.50Short selling  defense0.5dollar   target39.50.
　　
　　鸿远寄语：
　　
All the successes in the world, the shining path they follow, are the result of countless perseverance and perseverance in the past. Therefore, there is no need to envy. Everyone must take the uphill path of life, and if they do not want to waste their time and become mediocre, they will inevitably face setbacks and become braver against the current. We always thought there would be an impossible tomorrow, but as long as we don't give up, we can always encounter twists and turns, and even in the darkest night, we can always endure until the moment of dawn.