Bo Hu Lun Jin:6.22黄金还会涨吗周一黄金开盘走势分析操作建议

　　市场回顾与展望：
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，市场焦点转向卫生事件二次爆发方面，新增感染病例激增令投资者忧心忡忡，股市的超级涨势遭到打击，促使投资者买入美元以避险，gold也是一度爆发冲破1740关口。在全球抗疫封锁措施放松一段时间后，美国许多州的新增感染病例上升，加上北京发现新的本土感染病例，本周对卫生事件爆发2.0的担忧不断加剧，投资者对全球经济从卫生事件大流行中迅速复苏的信心遭到打击。除了卫生事件二次爆发的担忧，本周经济数据表现喜忧参半，美国5月零售销售在连续两个月下滑后录得创纪录增幅，但美国初请失业金人数及续请失业金人数依旧处于高位，暗示就业市场复苏之路还很漫长。此外，地缘政治风险集中大爆发，中印、朝韩以及中美局势均传出重大消息，这也令投资者保持谨慎，不敢大举加仓。
　　
　　自周初以来现货金一直维持窄幅震荡格局，尽管盘中出现较大波动，但日涨跌幅都不超过10美元，而这一局面在周五被打破，金价周五终于实现大爆发，一举攻破1740Pass, highest touch1745美元，为连续第二周收涨。crude oil价格基本延续此前震荡反弹的势头，OPEC+深化减产前景提振油价，但卫生事件担忧又拖累价格。最终本周美国原油上涨8.7%，布伦特原油上涨9%。
　　
　　接下来的一周，各国将公布PMI数据，这对于判断全球经济是否进一步复苏具有参考意义。同时周四美国将公布一系列一季度数据的终值以及耐用品订单数据，周五还将公布PCE数据。同时新西兰联储周三公布利率决议，预计会扩大购债规模且可能会暗示和负利率有关的信息。而加拿大央行新任行长将在周一进行上任后第二次讲话，预计会透露更多和7月决议有关的消息。值得一提的是，周一纽约原油7月合约进行移仓换月，市场需警惕市场波动风险。
　　
1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold
　　
Technically speaking, due to concerns in the market about the development of global health events, gold's safe haven demand has been boosted, and the price of gold hit a weekly high on Friday, rising more than20USD, highest hit1745.26dollar/Ounces, final closing1743.87dollar/Ounces, the daily chart recorded a full bullish candlestick,MACDThe random indicator is moderately flat, with the red kinetic energy column appearing faintly,KDJ金叉，金价一度刷新周高点1745.26Post oscillation operation1740Above, but still unable to break the previous triangular convergence pattern, indicating relatively limited action potential. In the short term, there is still a need to be vigilant against the risk of a volatile pullback,5Daily moving average1729.09This is the initial support below, and further support is needed20Daily moving average1720.97Nearby, if it breaks below this position, it weakens the short-term bullish signal;6month17Daily low point support at1713.2Nearby,3month9The daily high is supported by1703.39Nearby, if the position is accidentally lost, the gold price may further test the offline track of the Bollinger Line1694.55附近支撑；不过，认为，黄金以积极的姿态结束了本周交易，因为卫生事件病例增长，加速了避险资金流入黄金市场的趋势。总体而言，全球抗疫局势依旧严峻，在疫苗出现之前，任何好转的消息对于金价的打压有限，如果避险情绪成为主导的市场主题，则预计黄金将在未来几周内还将大涨；若金价坚守20If there is support near the daily moving average, there is still a possibility of further upward movement in the future, with preliminary resistance above as a reference1750Integral level, track resistance on the Bollinger Line1755.85附近，认为金价需要突破该位置才可能进一步冲击前期高点1765.43And open up new upward space;
　　
　　综合来看，认为，尽管金价迟迟未能突破1750At the critical point, but it is expected that after a period of stability, the gold price will still rise. The gold price has not yet broken through1750dollar/盎司的阻力水平，但整个黄金市场仍然在多年高位附近的震荡区域里。从过去几年金价走势来看，黄金市场在为突破做准备。最终而言，黄金多头面对的关键问题在于通胀如何表示。为应对卫生事件，全球各国央行和政府都大举宽松，进行各种刺激项目。此外经贸问题影响下，全球化也面临挑战，这意味着通胀变得更重要。在这种情况下，在实际利率依然极为低迷的背景下，黄金有足够支撑，金价长线仍需看涨；但短线技术面来看，金价仍处于三角收敛形态，所以下周一操作思路上博虎论金KD1394My personal suggestion is to sell high and sell low;
　　
Focus on resistance above:1750.00、1754.85；
　　
Focus on support below:1729.09；1720.97；
　　
Bo Hu's Message on Gold: As a lone soldier, do you feel like you are walking on thin ice in this financial market and struggling to move forward? If you are tired of unproductive investments and lost in the foggy market; If you suffer losses one after another but feel unwilling. So, it's time to change the status quo. Good birds choose trees to live on, your choices determine your future!
　　
The above views only represent the personal views of Bohu Lunjin. Thank you for your continuous support. Welcome to share, share, and comment, let's grow together! If you feel that the above views on Bo Hu Lun Jin are helpful to you, you can try adding Bo Hu Lun JinvxNumber“KD1394”Every day, there will be timely analysis of the gold strategy, as well as real-time guidance and one-on-one consulting services, dedicated to answering every investment challenge you face.
　　
Comprehensive guidance teacher: Bo Hu Lun Jin Micro（KD1394）
　　
Direction guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00
　　
Wen/Bo Hu Lun Jin