Billion Private Placement Bank Guarantee Wang Qiang: Northern Capital Will Not Return Significantly-Private equity direct stores

Billion Private Placement Bank Guarantee Wang Qiang: Northern Capital Will Not Return Significantly-Private equity direct stores
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"The decline of the United States yesterday was mainly due to the fact that the positions of the main market institutions were all added to the highest point in history, and their mentality was unstableAThe stock market fell first, which also coincided with the second outbreak of the US epidemic. In a resonance situation, there was one decline
If there were no major bearish news, the US stock market would not have bottomed out again. It is not ruled out that some good companies will continue to rise, drive the index, and may even hit new highs
Many people are also asking whether China's industrial chain is sound, the market is huge, the infrastructure is relatively good, and the response to the epidemic is relatively strong this time. Will the supply chain be transferred overseas?We believe that the risk of the transfer of China's industrial chain cannot be blindly optimistic... China's industry has gradually shifted to some ASEAN countries
The status of Hong Kong's financial center should not be a problem within three years. The return of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong for listing will actually enhance Hong Kong's financial center status
The registration system on the Growth Enterprise Market has opened another window for value investors. With the registration system in place, the pace of listing will become faster, there will be more and more stocks, there will be more and more opportunities to select individual stocks, and there will be more and more opportunities for professional investors to obtain alpha
The above is Wang Qiang, the founder and investment director of Baoyin Investment, today at his2020The latest viewpoints presented at the mid year strategy meeting.
Baoyin Investment has always been low-key and has a good reputation among institutional clients. Although it has long reached the billions level, it has not spoken much to the outside world.
Founder Wang Qiang is one of the first generation fund managers in China, with over28Years of investment experience,1999Established Baoyin Investment in, its longest managed product has been established to this day14Year. According to third-party data, this product is sourced from2005year6Since its establishment in June, as of this year5month15Day, yield****%Compound annualized income**.*%Click on this certification to view.
At this strategy meeting, Wang Qiang focused on analyzing the performance of US stocks over the past period of time, gave his own judgment on the issues of Sino US relations that many investors are concerned about, and talked about future investment directions. During the Q&A session, I also answered many questions about the return of Chinese concept stocks and the registration system on the ChiNext board.
Smart investors have been authorized to organize some exciting content, and the full text is recorded here for viewing.
Why did the US stock market plummet yesterday?
Let me explain again why the US stock market fell significantly yesterday.
We have also collected various types of information, including the following points:
The first interpretation is believed to be mainly due to the second outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. We have observed that the epidemic is worsening in over twenty states in the United States,(diagnose)The number of people is still reaching a new high because the US government hopes to further open up in order to save the economy;
The second interpretation mainly suggests that the protests and riots in the United States are further evolving;
The third interpretation is that people may feel that the US economy may not be very good in the medium to long term.
What is my personal interpretation?
I think it's important to note that as we mentioned earlier, in this significant rebound in the United States, hedge funds and mutual funds have all started to increase their holdings,ETFThere have also been subscriptions, and funds have flowed back one after another.
From my observation, almost all institutions(Position of)Basically, it has returned to its peak at the beginning of the year.
In this situation, there is actually not much new capital entering the market, and the market tends to be in a weak equilibrium state.
From3month24No25From the lowest point of the number to now, it has been rising for about two months. Many institutions have been increasing their positions from unconsciousness to hindsight, and it can be seen that they have basically reached historical highs at the beginning of this week. In addition, yesterdayAThe stock fell first, so the US stock market also found an excuse to start a significant decline. I think this significant decline is a manifestation of the market's unstable mentality, and of course, there are some fundamental deterioration situations that I am not aware of.
I will make a simple judgment on the next evolution of the US stock market.
If there were no bearish news that we were not aware of, and no major financial institutions had significantly reduced their holdings for some reason, I believe that the volatility in the US stock market would gradually converge2At the end of the month3The sharp drop in US stocks at the beginning of the month was completely different due to a significant reduction in positions by risk parity strategy funds. For hedge funds, this market is a bit more favorable.
China US relations are more challenging
From Strategic Cooperation to Strategic Competition
Next, let's talk about the challenges to China US relations.
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the United States withdrewWHOThere are also a series of issues such as trade wars, technology wars, financial wars, US elections, Hong Kong issues, and China concept stocks, which have influenced China US relations from strategic cooperation to strategic competition.
Let's briefly review.
In terms of trade war,2018year3In January, the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese exports, and of course, China also retaliated,5Upgrade again every month,9Upgrade again every month to2020The first phase of the trade agreement was signed in, until2020Of5In January, the top economic interlocutors between China and the United States all expressed their willingness to further implement the first phase of the economic and trade agreement.
As you can see in the technology war,2018year4The ban on ZTE Communications,2018year6Accepted by ZTE Communications10A fine of one billion US dollars and subject to US supervision,2019year5Yuehua is included in the list of entities,2020year5We will implement a comprehensive lockdown on Huawei in June,2020year5In June, some Chinese international students were suspended from their visas.
We have not seen a tendency to stop the technology war in China US relations, and it is still further escalating.
In terms of financial warfare, the US Treasury Secretary stated early this morning that the US may consider measures to restrict the flow of funds through Hong Kong. If implemented, a financial war is just beginning, and if restrictions are imposed on Hong Kong's capital flow, it will also have a certain impact on the status of Hong Kong's financial center.
Let's talk a little about Chinese concept stocks.
This year4month2Under the accusations of muddy water, Lucky Coffee exposed financial fraud,4month19Ruixing issued an announcement and received a delisting notice from NASDAQ. Ruixing has set a record for both the fastest listing and the fastest delisting. During the tense period of Sino US relations, this incident may be infinitely magnified.
　　5month21On August 1st, the US Senate passed the China Company Supervision Act. This bill is very simple, just a piece of paper that needs to be passed by the US House of Representatives and signed by the US President before it can become a formal bill, which may take another three years. So, after the announcement of this news on the same day, it fell for a day, and the next day, the Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States continued to rise. Everyone thinks this matter is still relatively far away.
Finally, there is an American election. As you all know, Trump's public opinion support is declining. First, the COVID-19 epidemic has been unfavourable. Second, it is now1929Since the Great Depression in, the worst economic contraction in the United States has occurred, with the unemployment rate reaching a historic high. Thirdly, Trump did not perform well in quelling riots and demonstrations in the United States.
It is an objective fact that every time a general election approaches, candidates from both parties have a stricter attitude towards China, and they will gain more support from voters. Due to the pandemic, the general election has not yet officially begun and is due11The official election is scheduled for the month, and there are still nearly5In about a month, so you will see more and more candidates have a strict attitude towards China, and the criticism and slander towards China will become increasingly severe. We believe that this has had a certain impact on the market.
The epidemic will become normalized and difficult to eradicate in the short term
Another major factor currently troubling the market is the pandemic.
Now it has basically spread from the Northern Hemisphere to the world, with Brazil having the highest number of people. One day has already arrived3More than ten thousand people, and the Northern Hemisphere has not yet completely subsided.
The epidemic first broke out in China and then shifted to developed countries because there is a strong flow of people between China and developed countries, including developed countries;Compared to countries in the Third World, such as Africa, it will be slower, and now the Third World is also starting to erupt.
Virus in30The degree of transmission below is particularly strong, and it is difficult to completely eliminate it. As you can see, it is now almost everywhere around the world and it is already difficult to eliminate it. It was originally hoped that it would be completely eradicated in a summer, but now it seems difficult. The world will face normalization, and unless a vaccine or specific medicine is invented, it will be difficult to eradicate it.
You can see under what circumstances the stock market will be excited?Whenever there is significant progress in vaccines or specific drugs available.
Now it seems that the vaccine may not be available until next year at the earliest, probably the next year or so, and the few good specific drugs that everyone is hoping for have been basically eliminated.
The epidemic has an impact on China's exports and industrial chain
The risks of China's industrial chain transfer cannot be blindly optimistic
What are the impacts of the global epidemic outbreak on China's economy?
　　5The import and export data for the month has shown that it has had some impact on China. Our domestic economy is gradually recovering, but our exports have some negative growth pressure.
Many people are also asking if China's industrial chain is sound, the market is huge, and the infrastructure is relatively good. This time, we have been more effective in responding to the epidemic. Will the supply chain be transferred overseas?
We believe that the risk of transferring China's industrial chain cannot be blindly optimistic.
You can take a look at some data.
The proportion of China's exports to the world has increased from2015Of13.6%Down to last year's13.1%, down0.5Percentage points. Southeast Asian countries whose exports happen to come from2015Of7%Up to7.5%Our decline in China is exactly equivalent to their rise.
From this data, it can be seen that China's industry has gradually shifted to some ASEAN countries.
At the same time, it is also necessary to prevent the epidemic from becoming a catalyst for accelerating the relocation of the industrial chain. Because many countries have a lot of accusations against China, and the United States is now forcing their companies to transfer their industrial chains from China, the outbreak of the epidemic has two impacts on the Chinese economy: the first is on exports, and the second is on the transfer of supply chains.
The epidemic is mainly caused by several changes in the economy: firstly, there are more videos and entertainment watching at home and less going out;Secondly, there are more office video conferences and fewer business trips;Thirdly, there is more online shopping and less shopping.
This is actually a relatively easy to understand statement, and everyone can see this situation.
Several trends are important
A few winners will gain more market share
Look at the market.
US stock market from2008From the end of the year to2019end of the year,11The Great Bull Market of the Year, NASDAQ2800Median average growth among multiple listed companies33%But before10%Average increase in stocks that have risen20And before that10%The market value of the stock accounts for% of the total market value50%A few winners have gained increasing market share.
The Nasdaq record high in the United States this time is mainly due to factors such asFacebook、appleGoogle and other companies have set new highs in history, as they have started online entertainment, office work, and shopping due to less travel. All of these companies have set new highs, as well as Amazon, the largest by market value.
The same goes for China. When the market rises, top companies become increasingly concentrated, and good companies continue to rise.
Another important trend is global differentiation.
The global real economy is slowly recovering, and the wealth gap is becoming more severe. The rich are getting richer, and the pressure on the poor may also be increasing.
In China, our leaders have also said that our monthly income1000The person in the block is probably6Billion,14Billion people6One billion, less than half of it. There are also statistical data indicating that,2000The proportion of people with income below $9 billion is over $9 billion2/3。
The increasingly severe wealth gap also has an important impact on listed companies, with top companies and emerging industries experiencing high growth rates.
Investment response
Alpha Opportunity and Beta Opportunity
Let's talk about our countermeasures, there are opportunities for alpha and some opportunities for beta.
Let's talk about Alpha's opportunity first.
Alpha opportunities are opportunities that can surpass the market. In the industry, we basically invest in top companies, while also investing in some global companies.
The impact of this epidemic may be de globalization. For enterprises, how do you cope with de globalization?
You not only need to have a market in China, ASEAN, Southeast Asia, but also can't rule out setting up factories in Mexico. For example, Chinese manufacturers supply Chinese consumers, while overseas manufacturers supply overseas consumers, which will be relatively balanced.
Finally, we are also looking for opportunities for industry iteration.
For example, we have been discussing the opportunities for solar energy to replace traditional energy, new energy vehicles to replace traditional gasoline vehicles, online education to gradually replace offline education, and online shopping to replace investment opportunities for offline shopping.
These are all called alpha opportunities, and of course, there are also beta opportunities, mainly for investing in emerging and growth industries.