6.15“冰火两重天”！市场巨变只在一念之差、黄金多头抱憾1730

从今年的金融市场整体情况来看，不确定性依然很高，可以说唯一不变的东西就是变化本身。每个月都与前一个月基本面都有很大的不同，每周甚至每天都有新的风险事件在增加。所以想要完全把握市场的脉络可谓难上加难。



新冠疫情的二次爆发

下周的一个主要驱动力将是对第二波新冠肺炎疫情的新一轮担忧，因为美国一些州开始重新开放时正面临着冠状病毒病例不断攀升的局面。

不过美国财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦当地时间11日说，即使一些州再次暴发疫情，美国也不会再为了遏制疫情而关停经济。




他的言论得到了川普的附和。后者在推特上发文说：“我们将有一个非常好的第3季度，一个很棒的第4季度，而2021年将是我们有史以来最好的年份之一。我们也将很快拥有疫苗和药物治疗方法。这是我的看法，看着吧！”

在川普总统发出这则推文之前，美联储预测美国经济今年将收缩6.5%，同时警告前景仍不明朗。

川普说：“美联储经常出错。我也看到了这些数字，而且比他们会看得多。”





其实从目前的状况来看，市场统一的声音全部就是二次新冠爆发和美联储决议透漏出的低迷信号，我相信这两点都不需要过多的给你们做解释，经常在新闻中就能看的见的消息，但熔断式下跌，确实在本周发生了，不然也不会造成道琼斯收跌7%的结果。



但别被这表面的现象给蒙蔽了，其实你我都明白，本周的金价几乎每天都在涨，也不能说毫无原因的涨，毕竟当你看一个方向时，是不会允许脑中一直存在另外一种判断的，这样也会给自己带来很大的困扰，但从gold调整的角度来看，连续一周走涨确实不常见，盘中反复程度也是少之又少，说到这里的时候甚至我自己都在想，难道自己的判断真的要在这次行情当中失败吗？


不，这点我肯定不会承认的。如果说对自己都没信心，那别人如何对你有信心呢？


在本周黄金上探至1745Nearby, 我确认有些意外。因为我前期在跌至1670附近，预测黄金会反弹，但是反弹幅度我当初认为只会在1707附近，然后在走五浪下跌。


那么当黄金上探至1745的时候，其实趋势就已经发生了变化。黄金并没有走5浪下跌，而是走3浪下跌，然后在V型反转。




结合本周消息面来总结，确定黄金涨的没毛病。道琼斯大幅下跌，美元指数也是刷新了几个月的新低，这种情况下来看，黄金涨到1745确实不过分。


我知道目前大家关注的是接下来黄金走势，周末也有很多朋友私信我，张口就是”黄金后市行情你怎么看”，”下周会高开还是低走”。说真的我看见这种消息，我脑袋都是痛的，我怎么看，我每天都在文章中给你们更新提示了，就有些人还是要跑来问我，永远都是这些问题，难道就不能问些有深度的问题？


好了，不提这些了，接下来给大家说下黄金，其实黄金的整体走势窗口，我周六复盘的时候就已经大概知道了下周的一个走势情况。

黄金下周趋势依旧看空，下周一（6month15日）是黄金的变盘时间节点。

   



crude oil由于风险情绪突变，引发能源需求担忧，此外，油价还受到欧佩克+达成协议的利好均未给油价提供充足的上行动能，同时利比亚和尼日利亚的原油供应出现问题，沙特称6月后将不再额外减产且EIA原油库存升至纪录新高等系列因素影响……

WTI原油、布伦特原油两大指标原油本周均下跌了近8%，在此前六周上涨使得油价摆脱4月低点后首周下跌。随着美国六个州报告新感染病例激增，人们担心冠状病毒大流行可能远未结束，油价反弹势头戛然而止。

与此同时，美国原油库存升至创纪录的5.3810亿桶，因来自沙特的廉价进口原油流入美国。石油服务公司贝克休斯表示，作为未来供应风向标的美国原油钻井平台数量本周减少了七座，至199Seat.





原油目前大趋势还是会继续维持空头，但是不排除会有小幅反弹。前期给大家布局的39.3as well as38.6原油空单，本周最低也是下探至34.4附近，基本上算大获全胜。




本周我文章中给大家提起过原油低点我是看到31.5附近，我周末也算了下时间周期，原油下周（6month17日）才是变盘时间节点，也就是说在变盘时间窗口来临之前原油还是有继续反弹的可能，那么仓位依旧持有空单的朋友也可以减仓或者止盈，等到达高点我在提示大家布局。

                                                                                                                            ———— 王铭鑫寄语

　  

    投资长胜之道，心态平稳45%+risk awareness 20%+Exquisite technology35%=Long term profitability! To pursue a long-term investment path and achieve certain results, these factors are essential. However, you may be at a loss in the early stages. Choosing the right guidance and helping you establish a comprehensive investment strategy is the best way for you to achieve long-term success. My guiding principle is to teach people how to fish rather than teach them how to fish. I will help find my friends and establish a set of my own operational ideas, sincerely imparting skills to you and cultivating your sense of skill! To achieve investment success in a lifetime, one does not need exceptional intelligence, extraordinary business foresight, or insider information. What is needed is a comprehensive knowledge framework that can help oneself make decisions, and the ability to eliminate emotional interference.

　　  

   Thousands of miles of horses are common, but Bo Le is not. The three most enjoyable things in life are: meeting opponents in chess, meeting close friends in wine, and meeting talented individuals in general! I am willing to be your guide on the investment path, Bole, and even more willing to be your close friend! Masterpiece of strength building, success is not accidental! At present, popular spot investments in precious metals such as gold and crude oil are available for those who are interested but have no way to start, or those who are currently investing with a large order and overall returns are not ideal. Please consult me. Buddha Ferry is a destined person, I have a heart! 王铭鑫口末亻言 ymsd06期待与你成为朋友

　　  

　 Meeting is fate, knowing each other is fate. The author firmly believes that fate will bring us to know each other for thousands of miles, and it is fate to have no share to wipe our shoulders. The journey of investment is long, and temporary gains and losses are just the tip of the iceberg along the way. You should know that a wise man will have a mistake if he thinks twice, and a fool will have a gain if he thinks twice. No matter how your emotions are, time will not stagnate because of you. Pick up the annoyance in your heart, stand up again, pack up and move forward. At this moment, being able to read here indicates that we are destined. As long as you are willing to share your gains and losses with me, I will be happy to help you solve problems and become your confidant on the investment journey. The stagnation of the heart makes you sit at the bottom of the well and sigh in the sky. Am I fortunate enough to be with you as I pass by.

　　   

   This article is written by Wang Mingxin (Guidance Hotline;ymsd06）Original submission, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and have in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Due to the latency of online push, the above content is personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, the suggestion is for reference only. Any operation based on this is at your own risk!