GKFXPrime捷凯金融：美国开启复工计划，美股和美元指数能否破高位？

就在美国疫情仍无收敛迹象的时候，美国白宫已经迫不及待的开始经济复工计划。美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，近期将观察前期4个经济刺激措施的效果。换言之，近期美国将不会再推出新的经济刺激计划。时常将经济挂在嘴边的特朗普，迫不及待的推进全美复工。

刺激计划利好股市，企业复工摆上日程
一些知名企业也在响应总统的号召。特斯拉宣布美国加州工厂将在本周复工，英特尔intel也将在美国建造新的处理器工厂。经济刺激计划的资金流去哪呢？股市是其中之一，尤其是纳斯达克等中小企业占大多数的指数板块。如下图所示，4月至今纳斯达克100指数的涨幅为28%，领先于道琼斯工业指数和标普500Index.

（蓝色为纳斯达克指数，红色为标普500指数，橙色为道琼斯指数）

stock market index的反转往往在市场嫉妒悲观的时候，对于美股而言，目前个人散户投资者的态度如何呢？使用Marketinsight网站查看散户情绪，80%以上的个人投资者都在做空NAS100指数。由于零售客户投机情绪往往与走势反向相关，因此纳斯达克100指数后期上涨概率较大。

另一指数标普500目前也呈现上涨趋势。4小时图中使用TradingCentral的自适应趋异指标，目前两条均线呈现看涨状态，绿色箭头向上。

（标普500 4Hour chart)

美元指数波动收敛，汇市酝酿爆发行情
上周五非农数据出乎意料并没有引起美元大幅波动，也没能让美元指数走出震荡区域，反而陷入更窄幅的范围。如下图所示，四小时图中目前形成孕线，波动幅度未超过倒数第四根蜡烛图。目前无法预期何事将引发美元指数突破，但是投资者可以留意突破99.50-99.90这一位置之后的方向抉择。

（美元指数4Hour chart)

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