Wang Mingxin5.10-11黄金原油星期一开盘提前布局&黄金原油空多单解套

   前言：市场的魅力所在，就是不论价格涨跌，只要你正确判断对了市场走势，你就能赚钱。而市场的精彩之处在于，它总是能让参与其中的人大吃一惊，不论你是刚入市的新手，还是已经在市场摸爬滚打多年，也不论你是否能够稳定盈利，市场本身从来不是透明的，即你永远无法预测市场的走向。所以我们要理性看待市场的不确定性，从中寻找确定性的存在，而这种确定性能够给我们带来大多数利润。不要试图去抓住每一段行情，操作的越多，更多的是在不确定的行情中在操作，而不确定的行情带给我们的更多的是亏损。　　行情消息面：周五(5month8day)美元指数小幅下跌，美国4The non agricultural employment population plummeted in the month2050Ten thousand people, unemployment rate skyrocketing to14.7%，均创下有纪录以来最差水平；商品货币纽元、澳元兑美元涨幅居前。随着风险偏好普遍改善，全球股市大涨，现货gold从二周高位大幅回落，一度刷新日低至1699.82dollar/盎司。随着石油生产商减产，需求回升的迹象也正在出现，油价连涨二周，美油6月合约本周大涨25%。



　　最新报道指出，美国页岩油企业称，一旦油价回升至30美元，他们将停止减产，重启钻井工作，这对刚刚从暴跌中康复的油市来说是极其不利的。更何况，并不是所有欧佩克+国家的减产成果都达标，部分产油国可能无法满足减产要求。明日凌晨，美国将公布至5month8日当周石油钻井总数，届时投资者可一览美国油企钻井使用情况。当前WTIcrude oilfutures7月合约成交量已超过6月合约，从活跃性原则出发，WTICrude oil futures7月合约已成为主力合约，且多数流动性提供商近期已提前移仓换月成7月合约。芝商所也将于5month20日进行6月美油的移仓换月，洲际交易所将于5month30日进行7月布油的移仓换月。为防止流动性挤兑重演，交易商出尽了招数，但这对于大部分投资者来说，不一定是好事。



　　国际现货黄金，伦敦金行情走势分析



　　黄金：现货黄金从日线来看，震荡反弹：KLine on1670-1746The range fluctuates horizontally, and currently the Bollinger Belt has closed, with gold prices rebounding supported by the mid track of the Bollinger Belt,MACDDead fork,KDJGolden fork; From a technical perspective, it suggests that gold is in a long and short competition. On the upward side, gold prices briefly broke through during the intraday trading session1720一线，逼近本周四高点1723一线。若该点位被突破，王铭鑫认为将看向高点1738Pressure level; It may even test annual highs1747First line, this is7At a high level of half a year, it is expected to significantly open up upward space after breaking through. However, due to the good performance of non agricultural sectors, gold bulls have been suppressed. Let's take note below1700Gateway support, followed by the Bollinger Belt medium rail1692Support, however, due to multiple recent rounds, the support line at this point is relatively strong; Pay attention after breaking down1680附近，这是本周三、周四测试的低点；在没有失守该位置之前后市偏向宽幅震荡。



Spot gold from4From an hourly perspective, it oscillates widely; Bling belt opening,MACDGolden fork, reduced red energy column;KDJGolden cross, random index mild downward; This indicates that the short term long position of gold prices is insufficient, and there is a possibility of a volatile correction in the future. Follow below first1700Short term support, while also being subjected to10The double support of the moving average and the Bollinger Belt's mid rail is an important psychological barrier. If we fall behind, let's take a look1690This is a recent multiple testing of support level, which has some reference value. Once this point is missed, the support level will be1682附近，这是前一交易日的低点。黄金由于本周强势反弹至1700Above, gold prices are hovering1710上方附近，初步阻力为看向周五高点1725附近，那么在没有失守该位置之前后市偏向震荡回调。综合来看，下周一操作思路上王铭鑫个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1725-1730Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1690-1685Frontline support. 　　                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          原油基本面及技术面分析：



　　油价周五收盘上涨5%，录得连续第二周周线涨幅，美油6月合约全周上涨25%，布油7Monthly contract increase16%；因美国石油生产商减产，钻井平台数量降至创纪录低点，同时更多的州开始放松为阻止冠状病毒大流行蔓延而实施的封锁举措。随着钻机停转和全国产量减少，需求回升的迹象也正在出现。石油生产商正在减产。5月份将减产约四分之一，是迄今美国最大的页岩油减产之一。为应对由冠状病毒疫情导致的燃料需求崩溃，能源行业削减产量和支出，美国本周活跃石油和天然气钻井平台数量减少了34Down to374Since the record began80年的历史低点。北美石油企业停产速度快于分析师预期，并有望在6Reduce production by approximately the end of the month17010000 barrels/Day.



　　原油从日线来看，日图收成小阳线，油价二连阴走势后出现了小阳线，进一步表现了原油震荡拉锯，MACD金叉和KDJ市叉，表现了油价高位盘整震荡走势，短期内油价运行在22.5-26.7区间，进一步突破后，油价将出现新一波趋势，均线处于空头发散的格局中，但是价格站上了20-30短期均线上方，同时均线出现了拐头迹象，整体表现了高位震荡中。



Crude oil4小时级别看，布林带三轨朝上，MACDandKDJ出现金叉；油价在一波连续上涨后，出现承压，但是油价没有下跌，延续震荡区间运行中，若进一步下破，大概率将出现趋势延续，下行方面，先留意23.2Nearby, this is supported by the middle rail of the Bollinger Belt; If you fall below, take a look22.50Near the front line, this has been tested multiple times in the early stage, and at the same time50日均线相近，有一定支撑性。初步阻力位看向周三高点26.7附近，上破后料测油价将再次回归强势上涨格局中，综合来看王铭鑫认为，在下周一交易上根据油价反弹力度做空为主，上方短期重点关注26.0-26.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below22.5-23.5Frontline support.



   GoldKLine theory:

　　

The theory of relative position is goldKThe second largest theory of line theory. As the saying goes, oranges born in the south are called oranges, which are sweet and sweet;Born in the north, it is bitter and astringent, known as trifoliate orange. The same seeds, grown in different environments, have vastly different results. Same, exactly the sameKLines, if placed in different relative positions, have a completely different guiding effect on the future market.KThe position of the line is crucial for analysis and judgmentKLines are extremely important. goldKThe theory of relative position of lines includes the following two meanings:

　　

UsuallyKThe position of a line does not have an absolute high or low point, so we can only use relative position to represent it. This depends on an individual's judgment of the market height and requires a certain level of understanding, but we must make a simple distinction. It is generally divided into three positions: relatively high, relatively low, and halfway up the mountain. Because high and low points are not absolute, there is no need to overly demand accurate positioning, just give a rough distinction.

　　

It is generally divided into three types: upward trend, downward trend, and consolidation trend, also known as upward channel, downward channel, and horizontal consolidation. At a relatively high levelKSpecial attention should be paid to analyzing whether the main force needs to wash the market or if there is a change in the overall situation, and the main force needs to ship at a high level. Generally speaking, the main force washing the market will fluctuate sharply downwards, making it easy for people to be deceived;However, if the main force wants to ship at a high level, it will be very gentle, giving people a feeling of needing to adjust at a high level and continue to hit higher peaks. By observing and calculating the inflow and outflow of the main force's funds, it can be found. Nine out of ten retail investors compensate for this reason, always being deceived by technical data and confused by the main force. Relatively lowKGenerally, the line falls to a certain extent, so there will be a relatively low level, but whether the incoming buying is awesome depends on the subsequent trend. Low position long and short positions are usually fought back and forth, whenKThe smaller the amplitude of the line, the more reasonable the price range has been organized. At this time, the normal trading volume will be relatively low. If there is a continuous upward or downward long lead or cross star, and the trading volume starts to rise, it indicates that the market is about to change. At this moment, it is necessary to constantly pay attention. If the main funds are continuously entering but the price fluctuates little, then buy decisively, When the main force builds up their positions, they will give up suppressing prices and turn to aggressively entering the market to start pulling up, usually starting with a bullish candlestick. A sharp rise in prices is relatively important, but it should be combined withKBased on a comprehensive assessment of the line and trading volume, whether the price does not rise or fall is not necessarily a bad thing, but rather the preparation for the next surge.

　　

Fund management is one of the core contents of trading systems, and its essence is risk management. The core logic of financial markets is that potential returns are equal to risks. Pursuing higher profit goals will inevitably face greater risks. Trading is valuable in the long run, and trading operations should pursue a balance between attack and defense. All positions and significant losses are the result of heavy attacks and light defenses. Fund management mainly involves building positions, stopping losses and profits, increasing positions and reducing positions, and so on. Here is only a brief explanation of warehouse construction. Assuming you use a1000Using USD accounts for international gold trading（XAUUSD）Margin trading, current market price is1390USD, you are considering setting the stop loss at a new high and then moving back to the previous low1381Below the US dollar1380On the position of the US dollar, the target price is considered to reach a new high1440Below the US dollar, per transaction2%Loss rule (usually recommended for classic trading)1-2%(Small funds can be adjusted accordingly), what is the amount of loss you can bear20USD（1000USD x0.02）In this way, you can only pay the market price1390Establishment of US dollars0.02Buying multiple positions by hand（20÷10）The profit and loss ratio is approximately5:1. If you use1385Set a price limit for buying orders in US dollars, and positions can be set0.04Hand（20÷5）Profit loss ratio1：10Left and right. Of course, you can also adopt the fixed position method, using a secure fixed position for each order placed over a period of time.

　　

　　本文由黄金分析师王铭鑫独家策划，感谢广大读者对笔者文章的喜爱和支持，希望大家能从我的文章中有所收获和感悟！因文章撰写和上传具有延时性，仅供参考！关于今日的操作，本人已经公布在朋.friend.Circle, and will always be in Wei//letter//Live streaming with an accuracy rate of over 90%, by the author（ ymsd06）Communication is all free. Did you miss today's profit?