Wen Jun discusses the market 5.10外汇黄金下周走势原油分析解套

gold消息面解析：现货黄金主要呈现高位震荡走势，欧美国家逐步重启经济打压避险情绪，令金价承压，金价一度跌至1682附近，但市场对美国就业数据的预期较差，利率futures历史上首次出现美联储将降至负利率的预期，金价一度升至1722.07位置，但最终美国非农就业报告好于预期，而且中美全面经济对话中方牵头人刘鹤应约与美贸易代表莱特希泽、财政部长姆努钦通话，市场对国际担忧情绪降温，金价最终回落至1700关口附近；收报1702.70dollar/盎司，周线涨幅0.22%。接下来的一周，首先要留意美国非农就业数据的影响发酵情况和国际贸易局势的相关消息，以及海外新冠疫情的进展和经济重启情况；其次则需要关注一系列经济数据，如中美4monthCPI数据、澳大利亚就业数据、欧元区一季度GDPAnd the United States4月零售销售数据，此外，新西兰联储利率决议也将是市场的关注点之一，crude oil投资者需要重点关注EIA、OPECandIEA原油市场三大月度报告。
　　
　　黄金下周技术面分析：黄金从日线来看：震荡反弹：KLine on1670-1746The range fluctuates horizontally, and currently the Bollinger Belt has closed, with gold prices rebounding supported by the mid track of the Bollinger Belt,MACDDead fork,KDJGolden fork; From a technical perspective, it suggests that gold is in a long and short competition. On the upward side, gold prices briefly broke through during the intraday trading session1720一线，逼近本周四高点1723一线。若该点位被突破，周文军认为将看向高点1738Pressure level; It may even test annual highs1747First line, this is7At a high level of half a year, it is expected to significantly open up upward space after breaking through. However, due to the good performance of non agricultural sectors, gold bulls have been suppressed. Let's take note below1700Gateway support, followed by the Bollinger Belt medium rail1692支撑，周文军认为不过由于近期多次来回，该点位支撑线相对较强；下破后留意1680附近，这是本周三、周四测试的低点；在没有失守该位置之前后市偏向宽幅震荡。
　　
Gold4From an hourly perspective, it oscillates widely; Bling belt opening,MACDGolden fork, reduced red energy column;KDJGolden cross, random index mild downward; This indicates that the short term long position of gold prices is insufficient, and there is a possibility of a volatile correction in the future. Follow below first1703Short term support, while also being subjected to10The double support of the moving average and the Bollinger Belt's mid rail is an important psychological barrier. If we fall behind, let's take a look1690This is a recent multiple testing of support level, which has some reference value. Once this point is missed, the support level will be1682附近，这是前一交易日的低点。黄金由于本周强势反弹至1700Above, gold prices are hovering1710上方附近，初步阻力为看向周五高点1725附近。综合来看，下周一操作思路上周文军个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1725-1730Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1690-1692Frontline support.
　　
Suggestions for Gold's next Monday operation:
　　
　　1The rebound above the gold does not break1725-1730Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1702-1700frontline;
　　
　　2The pullback below the gold does not break1690-1692Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1706-1708frontline;
　　
　　3、策略仅供参考，盘间行情实时变化具体进场点位以周文军微信(zwj964646)The actual offer shall prevail;
　　
　　原油消息面解析：刚刚过去的一周，国际油价延续前一周的涨势，美原油6月期货本周累计上涨25%The highest touch in the plate26.74dollar/桶，较4month29日而言实现翻倍，最终收报24.63dollar/桶；多个国家放松封锁措施，提振需求预期；而美国石油生产商减产，钻井平台数量降至创纪录低点，OPEC+产油国也开始减产，共同给油价提供上涨动能；但美国失业人数继续增加，国外疫情仍然严峻，多头仍有所顾忌。一些欧洲和亚洲国家以及美国几个州开始放松疫情期间的封锁措施，市场风险偏好回升，全球股市普遍上涨，原油的需求前景显着改善，给油价提供了上涨动能。未来一周，投资者需要继续关注海外新冠疫情的进展和经济重启情况；其次中国4月工业增加值、欧元区一季度GDPAnd the United States4月零售销售数据需要予以留意，此外，三大能源结构EIA、OPECandIEA将陆续发布原油市场月度报告，投资者需要重点关注。
　　
　　原油下周技术面分析：原油从日线来看，日图收成小阳线，油价二连阴走势后出现了小阳线，进一步表现了原油震荡拉锯，MACD金叉和KDJ市叉，表现了油价高位盘整震荡走势，短期内油价运行在22.5-26.7区间，进一步突破后，油价将出现新一波趋势，均线处于空头发散的格局中，但是价格站上了20-30短期均线上方，同时均线出现了拐头迹象，整体表现了高位震荡中。
　　
Crude oil4小时级别看，布林带三轨朝上，MACDandKDJ出现金叉；油价在一波连续上涨后，出现承压，但是油价没有下跌，延续震荡区间运行中，若进一步下破，大概率将出现趋势延续，下行方面，先留意23.2Nearby, this is supported by the middle rail of the Bollinger Belt; If you fall below, take a look22.50Near the front line, this has been tested multiple times in the early stage, and at the same time50日均线相近，有一定支撑性。初步阻力位看向周三高点26.7附近，上破后料测油价将再次回归强势上涨格局中。综合来看，下周一操作思路上周文军个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注26.0-26.2Frontline resistance, short-term focus below22-22.5Frontline support.
　　
Suggestions for crude oil operations next Monday:
　　
　　1The rebound above the crude oil does not break26.0-26.2Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target24.8-24.6frontline;
　　
　　2The downward correction of crude oil does not break22-22.5Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target25.0-25.2frontline;
　　
　　3The market is constantly changing, and the positions are for reference only. Investment is risky, and caution is required when entering the market. For more details, please follow Zhou Wenjun's official website||Wei:zwj964646；
　　
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　　全方位指导老师：周文军分析团队
　　
　　撰稿人：周文军
　　
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