Xu Bohong:5.10外汇美原油 现货黄金走势分析周一开盘行情预测操作

　　我始终认为无论我们从事什么行业，做什么事情，最不可离弃的两个字就是“真诚”，真诚是一种心灵的安慰，同时也是作为一位分析师本应具备的态度，我知道在这个混杂的社会，诸多半路出家的操盘手充当了资深分析师，但是我相信，只要我们的实力在，我们的口碑一定会广远流传，相信广大投资朋友还是可以找到我们的，那么我也相信我能给你带来你想要的结果，预祝咱们合作愉快，共赢，让你的目标，我的价值得到体现。
　　
　　市场回顾与展望：
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，卫生事件继续肆虐全球，累计确诊病例超过400万例，死亡病例超过27.5万；美国确诊病例超过132万，白宫一周内出现了三例感染病例。尽管形势仍然严峻，但是欧洲多国、美国等计划逐步解除或者放宽封锁措施，重启经济活动，提振市场的风险偏好。由于卫生事件，美国就业市场遭遇严重冲击，最新的经济数据显示，美国4月非农就业人口减少超2000万，创下史上最大降幅，不过有投资者押注最糟糕的时期已经过去。全球央行方面，美联储负利率预期突袭市场，引发巨震；德国宪法法院裁定欧洲央行购债违宪，危机欧洲央行庞大的经济刺激计划，不过行长拉加德表示，不会被这一裁决吓住；英国央行按兵不动，承诺随时准备采取必要的进一步行动来支持经济。
　　
　　接下来的一周，首先要留意美国非农就业数据的影响发酵情况和国际经贸局势的相关消息，以及海外卫生事件的进展和经济重启情况；其次则需要关注一系列经济数据，如中美4monthCPI数据、澳大利亚就业数据、欧元区一季度GDPAnd the United States4月零售销售数据，此外，新西兰联储利率决议也将是市场的关注点之一，crude oil投资者需要重点关注EIA、OPECandIEA原油市场三大月度报告
　　
　　foreign exchangeAnalysis of crude oil trend
　　
　　油价周五收盘上涨5%，录得连续第二周周线涨幅，美油6月合约全周上涨25%，布油7Monthly contract increase16%；因美国石油生产商减产，钻井平台数量降至创纪录低点，同时更多的州开始放松为阻止冠状病毒大流行蔓延而实施的封锁举措。随着钻机停转和全国产量减少，需求回升的迹象也正在出现。石油生产商正在减产。5月份将减产约四分之一，是迄今美国最大的页岩油减产之一。为应对由冠状病毒疫情导致的燃料需求崩溃，能源行业削减产量和支出，美国本周活跃石油和天然气钻井平台数量减少了34Down to374Since the record began80年的历史低点。北美石油企业停产速度快于分析师预期，并有望在6Reduce production by approximately the end of the month17010000 barrels/Day.
　　
　　原油从日线来看，日图收成小阳线，油价二连阴走势后出现了小阳线，进一步表现了原油震荡拉锯，MACD金叉和KDJ市叉，表现了油价高位盘整震荡走势，短期内油价运行在22.5-26.7区间，进一步突破后，油价将出现新一波趋势，均线处于空头发散的格局中，但是价格站上了20-30短期均线上方，同时均线出现了拐头迹象，整体表现了高位震荡中。
　　
Crude oil4小时级别看，布林带三轨朝上，MACDandKDJ出现金叉；油价在一波连续上涨后，出现承压，但是油价没有下跌，延续震荡区间运行中，若进一步下破，大概率将出现趋势延续，下行方面，先留意23.2Nearby, this is supported by the middle rail of the Bollinger Belt; If you fall below, take a look22.50Near the front line, this has been tested multiple times in the early stage, and at the same time50日均线相近，有一定支撑性。初步阻力位看向周三高点26.7附近，上破后料测油价将再次回归强势上涨格局中，综合来看，下周一短线操作思路上个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注26.0-26.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below22.5-23.5Frontline support. I have already announced today's operation on Peng.friend.Circle, and will always be in Wei//letter//Live streaming with an accuracy rate of over 90%, by the author（xbh768）Communication is all free. Did you miss today's profit?
　　
　　一、现货goldTrend analysis
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，现货黄金主要呈现高位震荡走势，市场对美国就业数据的预期较大，利率futures历史上首次出现美联储将降至负利率的预期，金价一度升至1722.07位置，但最终美国非农就业报告好于预期，而且中镁全面经济对话中方牵头人刘鹤应约与美经贸代表莱特希泽、财政部长姆努钦通话，市场对国际担忧情绪降温，金价最终回落至1700关口附近；收报1702.70dollar/盎司，周线涨幅0.22%。
　　
　　技术面来看，金价4month27Hitting a new high in recent days1723.13After falling back, it once fell below1700Pass, refresh daily low to1699.82dollar/Ounces, the daily Bollinger track begins to close,MACDDead fork,KDJGolden fork; The gold price closed at5Daily moving average and10日均线交叉点附近，指示金价短线走势变数较大，周五高点1723.13It is currently the initial resistance, and if it breaks through this position, the gold price may further explore4month23Daily high point1739.28, and even impact4month14Heliocentric1747.36This is7年半高位，若突破该位置，则新的上行通道将被打开。不过，由于此前美国就业数据降幅低于经济学家的预期，经济逐渐重启改善投资者避险情绪，欧镁股市和美债收益率上升，降低了市场对黄金的避险需求；美联储宣布下周将以70USD100mn/天的速度购买国债，进一步放缓了国债购买步伐，也打压了金价；且MACD死叉信号延续，金价收盘在1700关口附近，短线仍然有进一步回调的需求，下方初步支撑参考布林线中轨1693.17，由于近期搞位置被多次来回测试，支撑相对不强，进一步支撑在1680附近，该位置是周三、周四测试的低点；若失守该位置则看向5month1Daily low point1670附近，该位置在4月中旬以来被多次试探；若失守，则增加中线看空信号；综合来看下周一操作思路上个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；关于今日的操作，本人已经公布在朋.friend.Circle, and will always be in Wei//letter//Live streaming with an accuracy rate of over 90%, by the author（xbh768）Communication is all free. Did you miss today's profit?
　　
　　原油分析
　　
　　油价周五收盘上涨5%，录得连续第二周周线涨幅，美油6月合约全周上涨25%，布油7Monthly contract increase16%；因美国石油生产商减产，钻井平台数量降至创纪录低点，同时更多的州开始放松为阻止冠状病毒大流行蔓延而实施的封锁举措。随着钻机停转和全国产量减少，需求回升的迹象也正在出现。石油生产商正在减产。5月份将减产约四分之一，是迄今美国最大的页岩油减产之一。为应对由冠状病毒疫情导致的燃料需求崩溃，能源行业削减产量和支出，美国本周活跃石油和天然气钻井平台数量减少了34Down to374Since the record began80年的历史低点。北美石油企业停产速度快于分析师预期，并有望在6Reduce production by approximately the end of the month17010000 barrels/Day.
　　
　　原油从日线来看，日图收成小阳线，油价二连阴走势后出现了小阳线，进一步表现了原油震荡拉锯，MACD金叉和KDJ市叉，表现了油价高位盘整震荡走势，短期内油价运行在22.5-26.7区间，进一步突破后，油价将出现新一波趋势，均线处于空头发散的格局中，但是价格站上了20-30短期均线上方，同时均线出现了拐头迹象，整体表现了高位震荡中。
　　
Crude oil4小时级别看，布林带三轨朝上，MACDandKDJ出现金叉；油价在一波连续上涨后，出现承压，但是油价没有下跌，延续震荡区间运行中，若进一步下破，大概率将出现趋势延续，下行方面，先留意23.2Nearby, this is supported by the middle rail of the Bollinger Belt; If you fall below, take a look22.50Near the front line, this has been tested multiple times in the early stage, and at the same time50日均线相近，有一定支撑性。初步阻力位看向周三高点26.7附近，上破后料测油价将再次回归强势上涨格局中，综合来看，下周一短线操作思路上个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注26.0-26.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below22.5-23.5Frontline support. I have already announced today's operation on Peng.friend.Circle, and will always be in Wei//letter//Live streaming with an accuracy rate of over 90%, by the author（xbh768）Communication is all free. Did you miss today's profit?
　　
GoldKLine theory:
　　
The theory of relative position is goldKThe second largest theory of line theory. As the saying goes, oranges born in the south are called oranges, which are sweet and sweet;Born in the north, it is bitter and astringent, known as trifoliate orange. The same seeds, grown in different environments, have vastly different results. Same, exactly the sameKLines, if placed in different relative positions, have a completely different guiding effect on the future market.KThe position of the line is crucial for analysis and judgmentKLines are extremely important. goldKThe theory of relative position of lines includes the following two meanings:
　　
UsuallyKThe position of a line does not have an absolute high or low point, so we can only use relative position to represent it. This depends on an individual's judgment of the market height and requires a certain level of understanding, but we must make a simple distinction. It is generally divided into three positions: relatively high, relatively low, and halfway up the mountain. Because high and low points are not absolute, there is no need to overly demand accurate positioning, just give a rough distinction.
　　
It is generally divided into three types: upward trend, downward trend, and consolidation trend, also known as upward channel, downward channel, and horizontal consolidation. At a relatively high levelKSpecial attention should be paid to analyzing whether the main force needs to wash the market or if there is a change in the overall situation, and the main force needs to ship at a high level. Generally speaking, the main force washing the market will fluctuate sharply downwards, making it easy for people to be deceived;However, if the main force wants to ship at a high level, it will be very gentle, giving people a feeling of needing to adjust at a high level and continue to hit higher peaks. By observing and calculating the inflow and outflow of the main force's funds, it can be found. Nine out of ten retail investors compensate for this reason, always being deceived by technical data and confused by the main force. Relatively lowKGenerally, the line falls to a certain extent, so there will be a relatively low level, but whether the incoming buying is awesome depends on the subsequent trend. Low position long and short positions are usually fought back and forth, whenKThe smaller the amplitude of the line, the more reasonable the price range has been organized. At this time, the normal trading volume will be relatively low. If there is a continuous upward or downward long lead or cross star, and the trading volume starts to rise, it indicates that the market is about to change. At this moment, it is necessary to constantly pay attention. If the main funds are continuously entering but the price fluctuates little, then buy decisively, When the main force builds up their positions, they will give up suppressing prices and turn to aggressively entering the market to start pulling up, usually starting with a bullish candlestick. A sharp rise in prices is relatively important, but it should be combined withKBased on a comprehensive assessment of the line and trading volume, whether the price does not rise or fall is not necessarily a bad thing, but rather the preparation for the next surge.
　　
Fund management is one of the core contents of trading systems, and its essence is risk management. The core logic of financial markets is that potential returns are equal to risks. Pursuing higher profit goals will inevitably face greater risks. Trading is valuable in the long run, and trading operations should pursue a balance between attack and defense. All positions and significant losses are the result of heavy attacks and light defenses. Fund management mainly involves building positions, stopping losses and profits, increasing positions and reducing positions, and so on. Here is only a brief explanation of warehouse construction. Assuming you use a1000Using USD accounts for international gold trading（XAUUSD）Margin trading, current market price is1390USD, you are considering setting the stop loss at a new high and then moving back to the previous low1381Below the US dollar1380On the position of the US dollar, the target price is considered to reach a new high1440Below the US dollar, per transaction2%Loss rule (usually recommended for classic trading)1-2%(Small funds can be adjusted accordingly), what is the amount of loss you can bear20USD（1000USD x0.02）In this way, you can only pay the market price1390Establishment of US dollars0.02Buying multiple positions by hand（20÷10）The profit and loss ratio is approximately5:1. If you use1385Set a price limit for buying orders in US dollars, and positions can be set0.04Hand（20÷5）Profit loss ratio1：10Left and right. Of course, you can also adopt the fixed position method, using a secure fixed position for each order placed over a period of time.
　　
　　本文由黄金分析师徐博鸿独家策划，感谢广大读者对笔者文章的喜爱和支持，希望大家能从我的文章中有所收获和感悟！因文章撰写和上传具有延时性，仅供参考！关于今日的操作，本人已经公布在朋.friend.Circle, and will always be in Wei//letter//Live streaming with an accuracy rate of over 90%, by the author（xbh768）Communication is all free. Did you miss today's profit?