Liu Mingcheng:5.3-5.4现货黄金走势三角整理，期货原油行情预测附操作建议

[paragraph]
机会，需要我们去寻找，当你看到这篇文章的瞬间机会就已经给了你，人的一生难免会遭受挫折和失败，不同的是面临挫折和失败时候的心态，有的人总是把挫折当失败，从而便每次都能够深深的打击到取胜的勇气。投资，关键是走在正确的道路上，方向要对，“风平浪静行好船”没有稳定的市场环境。投资的目的是什么？赚钱！在这个市场，有一个清醒的头脑比有一个聪明的头脑更重要，有一种良好的习惯比有一种熟练的技巧更实用。坚韧的才是长久的，真实的才是永恒的，做任何事情都是如此。希望刘铭诚的文章能给你带来收获，在接下来的投资里顺风顺水。

———goldMarket trend analysis


Spot gold closed down again after a week and eventually declined1.64%to1698.90dollar/Ounces. The Federal Reserve opened the door to expanding monetary easing measures, which hit the expectation that the economy would soon recover from the COVID-19 epidemic. since3month21Over the past few days, the cumulative number of new applicants for unemployment benefits has increased to3030Ten thousand is equivalent to almost one out of every five workers losing their jobs in just over a month. US Q1 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)The month on month annual rate is shrinking4.8%, USA4The monthly manufacturing activity index fell to11At the lowest point in the year, due to strict measures taken to slow down the spread of the epidemic, the United States almost came to a halt, and the longest economic expansion in American history came to an end.5month4day-10This week, the market will welcome the monthly US non farm employment report, which is expected to perform unprecedentedly poorly. There are also trade accounts from multiple countries, as well as heavyweight data such as China's foreign reserves and social finance, which will be released one after another. In terms of events, the Federal Reserve of Australia and the Bank of England will hold interest rate meetings, and multiple Federal Reserve officials will also deliver public speeches one after another. Investors also need to pay attention to the global development of the epidemic and the measures taken by various countries.


This week, gold fell first and then rose, reaching a low point1670.5, high point1721.9Similar to last week's market situation, the range has not changed significantly, but it has increased compared to last week's low point8个点，连续三周最高点有一个下跌趋势形成，下方连续两周最低点不断抬高又有一个上升趋势，呈现三角区域末端整理行情，在国际局势动乱的情况下，黄金主体趋势还是优先看涨对待。刘铭诚从技术面来看，周线收下引线实体阴线，MA5The weekly moving average is slightly downward, while below1670-60There is strong support in the region, and the overall approach is tentatively based on the interval, with a focus on attention1725-1670The stretching and breaking situation of the interval. The daily line ended its consecutive negative decline last Friday and rebounded1700At the closing of the checkpoint, the upper and lower tracks of the Bollinger Belt gradually narrowed, and both short and long positions had the opportunity to enter. Looking at the four hour market,4hourKLine4Continuous stretching, under pressureMA30\MA60average1705The resistance level has fallen and ended this week's market. There is still a possibility of further upward trend in the short term, as shown in the attached indicatorsKDJGolden fork,MACDThe green energy pillar is shrinking, and the gold price is moving upwards towards the middle track of the Yanbulin Line,STOThe indicator fast line has entered the overbought zone, and there is no rule out the possibility of an upward trend1710Step back to repair indicators after the checkpoint. Overall, we are following the market trend on Monday1710-1718Resistance, pay attention below1691-1682支撑，操作上刘铭诚建议高沽低渣思路对待交易。盘间行情时时变化具体操作策略以刘铭诚微\/Core:zdmj868Actual combat is the standard!

———crude oilMarket trend analysis

This week, US crude oil hit a new high of one and a half weeks, and US oil surged6%to20dollar/Above the barrel,OPECThe rotating chairman calls on oil producing countries100%Adhering to the production reduction agreement reached in April, Iraq began to comply withOPECAgreement to reduce production,4The monthly global drilling quantity is1514Mouth, ratio3Of1964The mouth has decreased450Mouth, which means5Monthly crude oil supply may rapidly decline. More economies are preparing to lift the economic blockade, Malaysia is preparing to restart economic activity, and Australia will5month8The decision on whether to relax epidemic prevention restrictions and the news of global resumption of work is undoubtedly the biggest support for the recovery of demand. Dahua Bank pointed out in its Global Economic Outlook report that Brent crude oil prices may fall back to20dollar/桶，油价的大幅下跌导致了在全球金融危机期间出现的一个陡峭的futures溢价，与此同时，原油隐含波动率飙升至近200%; Brent crude oil tested in the second quarter20The risk of a decline in the US dollar still exists, and as the global economy attempts to self repair, energy demand is expected to remain weak in the coming quarters, leading to further downgrading of forecasts for Brent crude oil in the second quarter20USD, Q3:25USD, Q4:30USD, for the first quarter of next year35The US dollar, only an unexpected reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Russia can trigger a stronger recovery in energy prices.

Crude oil from this week10The strong rebound at the US dollar level has reached20The continuous rise in the US dollar level is due to the implementation of production cuts. Due to lower than expected growth in US crude oil inventories and the easing of epidemic lockdowns in some European countries and cities in the United States, expectations for oil demand growth are heating up. From a technical perspective, the crude oil daily line has been stretching and expanding its gains for four consecutive days, and the daily line has slowed down the pace of decline by taking a downward turn and turning upwards,MA5\MA10The daily moving average is rising upwards, with the top following what was mentioned on Friday21.5阻力区域，此点位起到承上启下的作用。刘`铭诚从按疫情开始以来油价整体下跌的幅度来看，当前都不应该误以为本周反弹预示全球能源市场的崩跌即将结束，全球储油能力有限，能源行业正不惜代价地寻找储油空间，市场充斥在过剩恐慌的状态中，所以油价近期不太可能大幅上涨，千万不要盲目跟风抄底油价！而且产油国减产的速度和幅度可能仍不足以抵销因防疫封锁而流失300010000 barrels/The demand around the day is difficult to boost oil prices. From the four-hour trading perspective, the three tracks of the Bollinger Belt move up synchronously, and the moving average shows a multi headed arrangement. The gold price approaches the resistance of the Bollinger Belt on the upper track, as shown in the attached indicatorsMACDRed energy column release,KDJThe index is stuck at a high level, and there is still a risk of a pullback in the short term. During the trading process next Monday, the strategy of last Friday will remain unchanged. Overall, Monday's crude oil market is closely monitored above21.3-22.6Resistance, pay attention below18.6-17.2支撑，操作上刘铭诚建议回踩做多为主。手上有单子被套的可与我沟通，由于刘铭诚不知道你们套单的点位和仓位的具体情况，不好给出相应的解套策略，请添/加刘铭诚官\/Micro:zdmj868Unlock your order.

Cooperation is only the starting point, service has no end. Trading is small, being a person is big. We are pursuing the most professional quality and sincere service! Concentrate your wisdom and work hard to create. There are no unprofitable investments, only unsuccessful orders! Whether to make money depends on grasping the timing of buying up and buying down. Making money depends on opportunities, investing on wisdom, and being a professional in financial management.
刘铭诚一直致力建立基本面变动模型，研判市场情绪变化，用以判断趋势。十余年锤炼的技术分析研判短线细节。中线为主，短线为辅。对汇市、金市、油市、股市、债市等全球主要金融市场都有深入而独特的见解。本文由刘铭诚撰写，刘铭诚用心写好每一段分析，传递有价值的投资理念。希望价有所值，值有所得；由于文章策略具有延时性；关注刘铭诚获取最新实时行情分析。