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This weekcrude oil市场历经洗劫,5monthWTIfutures合约在到期日前的一天内遭遇崩盘,一度挫至-40dollar/桶的罕见局面,触发市场恐慌,反推美元避险,同时开启了美元一周稳健的涨势。
美元指数本周重返100大关上方,最高升至100.88水平。提振美元周内走高的还有特朗普政府周内两份签署的文件,其一为保护美国就业而采取的暂停绿卡申请60日的行政令;其二为4840亿美元的小企业援助法案签署。
Spotgold因市场充斥对经济前景与负债堆积的担忧,叠加对央行维持更长久宽松和通胀走高的预期,本周连破8大心理大关,最高触及1738.27一线,单周升幅近79dollar/ounce.
短期内,市场已经开始定价央行海量的货币供应政策,金价在仅仅几周内从1451Ascend to1747的表现已经反馈了此前的市场情绪,预期在更长线拉升前黄金价格将下修。
Analysis of Gold Trends-------
Message interpretation:
上周因市场对于各国逐渐解除封锁措施的预期,加上油价暴跌引发黄金下跌,同时美元刷新逾两周高点也施压金价。不过因经济下行的压力持续,市场预期美国和美联储将继续扩大刺激措施,因此使得黄金随后迅速反弹。市场仍在持续的买入黄金ETF多仓,这是支撑黄金的一个长期利多因素。回调形态的形成与否,重点看1710支撑位置的得失,强势行情中的修正一定不会连续破低,连续破低意味着走弱,强势上升就会被打破,所以一旦1710被击穿,那么下行调整就会明显的走出来。尽管美欧重启经济给市场带来了希望,但是预计黄金持续承压的可能性不大,因为市场还在评估经济重启是否有导致疫情蔓延再度升温的风险。
Gold Technology Analysis:
今日周一现货黄金早间小幅低开报1718位置,日内最高触及到1727位置,现价黄金报1720,本周为5month1日小长假的最后一个交易周,投资朋友注意不要持仓过节,操作上尽量短线为主。黄金日线来看,上周日线收取了一根带长下影线的阴十字星,金价目前位于高位,高位的十字星强弱的判断方法在以前的文章我写过,我们目前只需要关注价格的上下点位突破即可,收取十字星次日若破低点的话,行情将会进一步下挫,并且会加大下探的深度。当然如果突破了十字星的上方,那么上方就是周末周评分析的新高。日内的强弱分界位置位于1720,下方的强支撑位于1710position;附图指标上MACD目前已经开始转头向下,指标动能开始转弱;4小时的形态目前的均线MA5已经准备下穿MA10形成死叉,关键位置就是1720位置,跌破1720价格将再度回撤到1710位置。附图指标上快线已经和慢线粘合同样的破1720将会形成死叉下行去试探1710-1712的支撑位置。
综上所述:现货黄金理财认为今天周一,继续维持区间震荡的可能性较大,我们的操作上以短线为主,短线操作上现货黄金理财建议区间高沽低渣为主,本周美欧将公布一季度GDP数据,市场将从中寻找线索;同时关注三大利率决议。值得一提的是,美联储进一步减少购债规模,因流动性危机缓解,美元净空头持仓增至两年最高,这对金价有利。现货黄金解析薇/Letter(deng86867)For gold/Investors who feel that investing in crude oil is not going smoothly or want to learn how to read and analyze the market can contact me
GoldKLine theory:
The theory of relative position is goldKThe second largest theory of line theory. As the saying goes, oranges born in the south are called oranges, which are sweet and sweet;Born in the north, it is bitter and astringent, known as trifoliate orange. The same seeds, grown in different environments, have vastly different results. Same, exactly the sameKLines, if placed in different relative positions, have a completely different guiding effect on the future market.KThe position of the line is crucial for analysis and judgmentKLines are extremely important. goldKThe theory of relative position of lines includes the following two meanings:
UsuallyKThe position of a line does not have an absolute high or low point, so we can only use relative position to represent it. This depends on an individual's judgment of the market height and requires a certain level of understanding, but we must make a simple distinction. It is generally divided into three positions: relatively high, relatively low, and halfway up the mountain. Because high and low points are not absolute, there is no need to overly demand accurate positioning, just give a rough distinction.
It is generally divided into three types: upward trend, downward trend, and consolidation trend, also known as upward channel, downward channel, and horizontal consolidation. At a relatively high levelKSpecial attention should be paid to analyzing whether the main force needs to wash the market or if there is a change in the overall situation, and the main force needs to ship at a high level. Generally speaking, the main force washing the market will fluctuate sharply downwards, making it easy for people to be deceived;However, if the main force wants to ship at a high level, it will be very gentle, giving people a feeling of needing to adjust at a high level and continue to hit higher peaks. By observing and calculating the inflow and outflow of the main force's funds, it can be found. Nine out of ten retail investors compensate for this reason, always being deceived by technical data and confused by the main force. Relatively lowKGenerally, the line falls to a certain extent, so there will be a relatively low level, but whether the incoming buying is awesome depends on the subsequent trend. Low position long and short positions are usually fought back and forth, whenKThe smaller the amplitude of the line, the more reasonable the price range has been organized. At this time, the normal trading volume will be relatively low. If there is a continuous upward or downward long lead or cross star, and the trading volume starts to rise, it indicates that the market is about to change. At this moment, it is necessary to constantly pay attention. If the main funds are continuously entering but the price fluctuates little, then buy decisively, When the main force builds up their positions, they will give up suppressing prices and turn to aggressively entering the market to start pulling up, usually starting with a bullish candlestick. A sharp rise in prices is relatively important, but it should be combined withKBased on a comprehensive assessment of the line and trading volume, whether the price does not rise or fall is not necessarily a bad thing, but rather the preparation for the next surge.
本文由黄金分析师万胜道金独家策划,感谢广大读者对笔者文章的喜爱和支持,希望大家能从万胜的文章中有所收获和感悟!因文章撰写和上传具有延时性,仅供参考!现货黄金解析薇/Letter(deng86867)For gold/Investors who feel that investing in crude oil is not going smoothly or want to learn how to read and analyze the market can contact me |
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