日线上,黄金日线收小阴十字星,目前处于短期线上方运行,5Japan and Japan10日均线金叉偏向上,中期线向上运行,MACDSmooth bonding,KDJ向上运行,指标偏看涨。黄金前一波上涨从1450到近期高点1748Nearby, the increase is close to300The US dollar is approaching the limit of its previous year's increase, as seen in this way1748附近及上方很可能成为今年顶部了,也就是说即使上方还有空间,比如涨到1800,也还是顶部区域,而且很难再有多少空间,相比向下可能调整100-200美金空间来说空间已经很小了,再往上随时见今年顶部,一旦调整就是100-200美金空间。今年由于疫情影响,想要真正趋势转空还是需要等待疫情拐点,只有拐点出现后无限QE才可能停止,宽松流动性才会减弱,这样黄金才能走出持续性回调,否则拐点出现前即使回调100美金后仍然可能企稳继续拉升冲高,不过已经说了1748附近及上方就是顶部区域,所以预计未来1-2Maintain for a month1600-1748or1600-1800区间波动概率大,然后等待疫情逐步控制到达拐点,之后黄金才会开始真正回调下跌,目前看时间上可能是6From the beginning of the year to the beginning of the month, in terms of time cycle3Gold is showing a clear upward trend in the month, entering into3A wave appeared after the month1700-1450Great plunge, but due to insufficient liquidity, unlimited in the Federal ReserveQEAfter providing sufficient liquidity, gold began to soar and even broke through1700Pass, this indicates3After the month, it is not a downward trend, but currently it cannot be completely said to be an upward trend. From a spatial perspective, it is a large-scale fluctuation, which means3月份到现在整体其实是一个超大区间波动,只不过是波动空间太大,在更短的周期上看是趋势行情,但你退一步出来看是更偏向区间波动,那么12Month to3month3The period of one month is on an upward trend,3month-6The month should be a volatile market, but there is a lot of room for it. Wait until6A new trend market will only appear after the month, and it is likely that the epidemic has reached a turning point. As mentioned before, once the epidemic reaches a turning point, gold will fall6月份后黄金很可能走下跌趋势了,到时候将走出持续回调的走势,不再是来回震荡颠簸没有真正方向,不过也这一切的推断预测都是建立在6月出现拐点的前提下,这是未来中期需要注意的节奏,唯一改变这种预期的可能就是疫情影响时间大大超出预期。
整体看日线还是高低点逐步上移,维持震荡上行格局没有改变,上周跌至1660探底回升企稳反弹,目前有重新冲击1740-1748压力关口,本周就看这里压力情况,是突破还受阻回落,若突破看1800关口,受阻回落先看1660支撑,不跌破仍可能陷入1660-1748区间震荡,若跌破1660,那基本要调整到1600附近甚至下方了。今天日内看短期线附近支撑在1710附近,上周五快速杀跌低点也是1710,这里盘中跌不破企稳仍可以低多为主,若跌破站稳将进一步转空,不过即使跌破1710还有1700关口支撑,要防止跌至1700再次出现一波大反弹,稳健的还是跌破1700后反弹再高空,或者不突破1748前受阻做空,日内关注1710and1700关口支撑,企稳低多,特别是1710不跌破的情况下回调低多更加安全。(Band Midline Trading Opportunity Reminder:1690-1700的空单下来1700附近先出来)
pressure1735-1740-1748-1800
brace1710-1700-1690-1680-1660-1600-1570-1500-1450
Spot gold:
1. 1710Short positions nearby, stop loss1705, Objective1720-1740-1748-1800
2. 1740-1745Short selling, stop loss1750, Objective1730-1710-1700-1680-1660-1600-1570-1550-1500-1450-1400-1350