Last Friday(4month24日)美原油延续上一交易日的涨势,因为市场预期美国将出台更多的刺激措施,短时间提振了市场情绪。此外美伊紧张局势叠加各产油国想要尽快实施减产以抵消疫情对于需求的冲击,加上此前油价一度跌至负值,这都使得油价短线大幅反弹。王今博认为疫情对于全球经济的冲击持续,在经济出现明显复苏迹象之前预计将继续打压油价。同时更多过剩的原油正在挤压全球存储空间,因此不排除6月美原油合约仍有跌至负值的可能。据悉,投资者增加商品货币看空押注,因认为油价反弹仍遥遥无期。不过由于近期油价下行压力和波动较大,多家券商限制客户购入部分原油合约的新仓位,此前引发全球原油ETF剧烈反应的美国最大的原油上市交易基金也表示因应市场极端波动,该基金开始分散在原油futures上的投资。这可能使得短时间油价暴涨暴跌的情况暂缓。
Trading is like warfare, where both offense and defense are necessary. Defense is based on retreat, while offense is based on advance. When risk outweighs profit, a perfect retreat is far more significant than a partial victory. The highest level of trading is short positions. Only short positions can calm down, only meditation can observe battles, and only observation can serve as a referee, thus distinguishing between strong and weak trends. As long as one stands in line with the strong and weak teams, profit is just a passing act. Therefore, the first thing a trader needs to learn is to spend most of their time observing, rather than participating. They don't need to participate every time, they only want to turn the tide of trading once. There is no one in this world who lives easier than anyone else, but the strong. Even if they fall, they must smile, never cry out for pain when they fall, or turn on the light when they are afraid of the dark. The strong are not born, they have only experienced more setbacks.