MEX Group:Morning Express-美元连创新高，商品货币大涨可考虑兑现利润。

Focus of foreign exchange market

Trading preference – 本周策略和上周策略保持一样，继续看弱欧/Beauty（EURUSD）,并认为澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）, New/Beauty（NZDUSD）已经接近高位，还未兑现利润的冲高可兑现部分利润。

欧洲方面，从昨日欧元区公布的制造业数据来看，几乎是全面沦陷。另外，欧盟峰会也未能在细节上达成协议，欧元也因此承压。因此，我们继续维持欧元为偏弱结构，技术上，支撑再次下移到1.0750。

英国方面，因新冠疫情影响，英国4月经济萎缩幅度为至少20年以来最大，与此同时疫情也干扰了原计划中的英欧过渡期谈判进程，这也令英镑承压。因此，我们还是维持英镑为偏弱结构，技术上，支撑下移到1.2200。

商品货币方面，近两日因风险偏好情绪转暖，油市大幅反弹，也带动了商品货币的上涨。但我们还是维持原来的观点，冲高可兑现利润，因为现在疫情仍然非常严峻，各国的经济数据还在持续往下掉，这将不利于商品货币。技术上，澳/beautiful0.6450, New/beautiful0.6150压力较大，短线关注澳/beautiful0.6200, New/beautiful0.5900Support.

避险货币方面，虽然油价的反弹有助于市场情绪的企稳，但全球肺炎感染人数还在不断增加，以及主要经济体经济数据的疲弱也支撑了美元。因此，我们还是维持美元为偏强结构，技术上，上方关注101Pressure.

beautiful/日近期波动不大，因避险情绪上升，日元获得了一定支撑。另外，日本央行将在下周讨论取消购买国债的80万亿日元上限，转而采取无限量方式，值得大家关注。总的来看，我们还是维持美/The day is a fluctuating structure.

It is worth noting that the money market is2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX動量反轉量化策略因而一再創下新高，投資者在2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combinations for the year.

MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7货币对冲组合》。组合净值上周下跌0.06%。本周组合及截至北京时间4month24day07:06The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

commodity market

Trading preference – 下半周我们维持gold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡结构。长期来看，全球低利率环境为黄金提供了支撑。经济数据的疲弱和全球大规模的经济刺激也提振了金价，但考虑到美元相对较强恐限制黄金的升幅。总的来看，我们还是维持黄金为震荡偏强结构。

油价方面，受中东紧张局势提振，以及OPEC+产油国可能进一步减产消息提振，油价短线上涨。不过我们认为短期需求的疲弱仍将限制油价。中长期来看，短期油价的下跌将会为未来油价提供一个相对“底部”，但我们更多需要的是时间。

stock market indexprospect

股指方面，港股周四高开，此后震荡下行，后重拾涨势，收盘恒指涨0.35%。盘面上，内地教育股均走高，阿里概念股续涨。近期建议投资者仍需以防御为主。技术形态上，24500There is some pressure, below23000是短期支撑。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are at their extreme short positions. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, with the inflow of funds and support for a rebound, but the current price is already high, and a surge can realize some profits. In addition, the long position of the euro is also at its extreme.

Australia/United States, New Zealand/United States, Pound/The US has fallen back as we expected.

Europe/美可继续持有。

Target price in Europe/to one's heart's content/Japanese pounds/to one's heart's content/Canada Australia/Meiniu/beautiful

short-term1.0750107.501.23501.40500.64000.6000

midline1.0750108.001.22001.40000.63000.5900

Target priceWTIXAU

short-term7.001,715

midline7.001,715