Pengcheng Dianjin4.20Gold continues its pullback and rebound, but it still needs to be short. Don't chase after the new low of crude oil

Pengcheng Dianjin4.20goldContinuing the pullback and rebound still requires short positions,crude oilDon't chase short at a new low
Fundamental analysis
　　受新冠病毒的影响全球多国央行和政府推出宽松的货币政策，投资者担忧未来通货膨胀，大量的购入黄金；另外，由于新冠病毒多国封锁，黄金炼厂、金商不得不暂停营业，这使得黄金实物供应减少，支持金价的上涨。但是，随着欧美新冠病毒高峰过去，欧美国家已经开始计划重启经济。美国考虑在5Gradually restoring the economy of each state in the month, Germany will4month26Consider restoring the economy on a daily basis. Economic activity has been restarted, and investors' risk aversion has eased. After gold surged, it began a significant pullback, giving up most of its previous gains.


　　4.20Gold Analysis
　　黄金上周冲高回落收低，周初开盘强势快速冲高。最高至1747The area is under pressure. Mid week high cross for two consecutive trading daysKAfter the consolidation of the line, the bearish candlestick retraced at the end of the week, breaking through the Qianqi barrier and changing from a strong trend to a correction correction correction with a minimum of1676In the area, this week's opening further continues the pullback, and the weekly closing has a cross with a longer upper shadow lineKThe upward trend of the line and weekly line is gradually adjusted in style. Day chart crossKAfter the line, cooperate with the retracement of the bearish line. Periodic local adjustments. Loss of defense10After the daily chart, the strong upward trend has been broken, and this week we will see a continued decline.

　　4Hourly breakdown1700Afterwards, there was a continuous bearish trend, and last Friday's trading session was accompanied by significant fluctuations, which played a role in moving the moving average indicator downwards.4Empty hours. The hourly chart, accompanied by consolidation, has been continuously bearish and downward, with the trend starting to fluctuate and retrace. Last Friday's pause correction window1685The nearby area has converted into resistance, and there is a possibility of weak continuation today, so the rebound space is relatively small. Asia Europe rebound relies on1685Apply resistance nearby and continue to follow the trend to see a decline.
Operational1685/1686Short selling, stop loss6US dollars, stop profit view15-20dollar


　　Danger is coming on Tuesday! The production restriction meeting will comparefuturesIs the market more terrifying?
　　对于目前的油市来说，虽然减产已经是板上钉钉的事情，但是一个更重要的问题仍悬而未决——库存问题。
　　据路透报道，贸易商们目前正在油轮上储存约1.6Billion barrels of oil, which is more than double the number from two weeks ago. According to an independent ship brokerage companyshipbrokersAffinityAccording to statistical data, the scale of crude oil reserves on large cruise ships has significantly surpassed it2009The high point of the year.
　　分析指出，将大量原油储存在海上的不外乎两类人：大型原油生产商（如沙特阿美等巨头）以及大大小小的贸易商，以及利用期货溢价进行套利的人。在这种情况下，现货原油价格将同时面临波动和下挫风险。
　　由于需求持续萎缩，原油库存高企的问题短期内恐怕无法得到解决。为了解决这一问题，恐怕不止是欧佩克+Even the United States must take more proactive measures to respond, and Tuesday's Texas production restriction meeting will once again draw attention.
　　上周的得州限产会议陷入重重分歧，未得出一致结论。在本周二，美国得州原油监管机构将再次开会讨论原油限产问题，并有可能投票出结果。
　　在得州会议陷入困局之际，特朗普政府在考虑新的减产措施。有消息称美国能源部已经起草文件以缓解油市供过于求的状况，具体措施包括考虑为钻井公司提供资金，让钻井公司停止钻探的计划，以实现减产。


　　4.20Crude oil analysis
　　原油上周整理后底部再放量，周尾击穿19.20Low point, set near10The oil price has been suppressed due to the sharp increase in supply and low demand in the past years, while the COVID-19 abroad has not been effectively controlled, making the demand for oil price weak. This is also the reason why oil prices have been consistently low and continue to weaken. The weekly chart continues to decline at the bottom, showing signs of a chronic bearish trend at the bottom. The short-term structure is already weak and bearish, and the medium-term is waiting for a downward trend in the form to stabilize. It is expected to wait for the improvement of the news front before a retaliatory rebound can emerge to complete the bottom stop. The current price has hit a new low. Although short selling is bearish in the short term, if you short at a low level, you won't dare to be persistent and can only fast in and out.

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　　4Hour stick10The unit moving average fell weakly on one side and broke through last Friday19.20Afterwards, draw this position back and apply pressure again. The pressure at this position is10At the unit moving average. If this level is not recovered in the short term, the small cycle will continue to be weak. In order to stop the decline in the future, it is expected to be accompanied by a rapid downward trend and rebound, or in other words, the bearish news will improve. At present, it has not fully appeared. So we still need to be patient and wait. In the current weak downward trend in the short term, it is difficult to buy short. Pay attention to last week's low point in operation17.4Top to bottom conversion.
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