Shi Wanjin:4.18Gold under pressure continues to be bearish at the opening next week, and suggestions for crude oil trend operation

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I have observed the process of swallows flying, and they also fly in an arc. Before each high flight, they always slide down for a while and then strive to fly up again. At first, I didn't understand the reason behind it, but later I realized that the process of the swallow descending was to accumulate strength, in order to fly higher and farther the next time. Trading in the market will inevitably have fluctuations in profits and losses, and when profits continue, it is necessary to amplify them, because everyone will have low points. This does not stop us from moving forward, it is just a hidden strength to reach another higher peak. There is a classic line in "Dwelling Narrowly": a person's life is a curve that fluctuates up and down, sometimes high, sometimes low. When you're low, you should be happy because you're about to reach higher ground, but when you're high, it's actually very dangerous because you can't see the upcoming trough.
Message surface:
The US dollar index has fallen0.36%to99.71Rising throughout the week0.22%Investors are cautiously optimistic about the trial results of an antiviral drug and US President Trump's economic restart plan, indicating a slight increase in risk appetite. the United States10Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds rose2Bps to0.65%, before the Federal Reserve slowed down the pace of treasury bond bond purchases. The US dollar closely followed changes in risk sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, and last night's trend dragged down the US dollar index from a one week high.TThe vice president in charge of trading said, 'I believe the market is generally optimistic today, so the US dollar has slightly declined.'. But overall, the US dollar will still be the king in the coming months. Even if it breaks away from last month's high, the US dollar will still remain at historical highs.
goldTrend analysis:
The daily chart of gold shows that the closing bearish line of the daily chart, after fluctuating within three trading days, led to a downward trend in gold prices. The high point did not break through the previous high, and the low point broke through the previous low. In terms of form, it appeared as a broken end and a broken knife. From the overall pattern, gold touched the bottom1451.12dollar/After the ounce, there was a wave of upward momentum, including1451-1553The first wave,1454-1644The second wave,1568-1747The third wave has a relatively strong upward momentum. If the daily chart level changes and the current upward trend still needs to be further broken, please pay attention below1670dollar/Ounces, further testing1640dollar/Ounces, overall high performance encountered resistance.
The golden hour chart shows that after a continuous rise, gold1708A double top pattern is formed above, and after the gold price breaks below, the decline accelerates. We can connect the high and low dash lines on the chart to form a downward channel, and gold is4month16Daily contact1738After experiencing positional pressure, a downward trend followed, resulting in three hourly chart level push waves,1738-1707The first wave, and then1718-1683The second wave is currently in1701In a downtrend that encounters obstacles, if the downward trend does not change, there is a high probability that the sword will strike1668Nearby, overall, Shi Wanjin believes that gold is in a downward trend. If the rise does not accelerate, there is a high probability of a continued downward trend. Please pay attention to the above1701-1718dollar/Ounces, follow below1768-1740dollar/Oz, short-term long short watershed attention1710dollar/ounce. In my article on Wednesday, I proposed that gold1707The upper traffic volume has a head shoulder top shape, and after breaking down, there will be a downward trend.
Suggestions for opening next week:
1If the opening price is low next week, consider rebounding short and pay attention to the pressure level1688-1692dollar/Ounces, support attention1670-1640；
2If the opening is high next week, consider high altitude and low altitude. Pay attention to it1710-1718Pressure, support attention1680-1675Support.
crude oilTrend analysis:
crude oilfuturesInvestors have been leaving5Monthly long position, due to the record high surge in US inventory and the test of running out of oil storage facilities this summer. According to data from the US Department of Energy, the storage capacity of the oil tank located in Cushing, Oklahoma has reached69%Higher than four weeks ago49%The research director of Morningstar said that Cushing is under a lot of pressure; If a person holding futures contracts cannot close their position now, they must deliver.
The daily crude oil closing chart has a large bearish candlestick, with the high point not breaking through the previous high and the low point showing a falling tail trend before breaking through the previous low. The moving average is running in a bearish patternkPressure forms above the line, and on trend indicators, bearish momentum continues to increase,rsiThe indicators are touching45After reaching the level, there is a downward trend again, and the overall performance is bearish with increasing volume. The crude oil hourly chart shows that oil prices are19.0-20.5dollar/The bucket interval is running45After one trading hour, there was a further drop in oil prices, with the lowest being given17.284dollar/The position of the barrel has rebounded, and currently the oil price is fluctuating at a low level. Overall, Shi Wanjin believes that if the oil price rebounds further, it will rise20.5Position changes the current bearish pattern, pay attention to the pressure level above20.5-22.9dollar/Bucket, follow below17.0-16.0dollar/Bucket.
Crude oil trading strategy for next week:
Crude oil delivery21The morning session was suspended,5Contract and6The price difference of the contract is too large. Consider short-term trading when trading, with a short opening and a high opening20.5Above, consider retreating multiple orders in the layout,20.5Below, we will focus on rebounding and short selling.
How can we improve the current situation of losses through operation?
1、 Develop a reasonable trading plan, develop a detailed profit plan and risk control plan based on your own funds, and avoid blindly trading long and short without even a plan.
2、 What does light to heavy trading mean? This is a subjective standard, I think it's so light that even if you lose money, it won't make your palms sweat! In other words, it is entirely determined by your own capacity to bear. The significance of a light position is to keep your focus on researching the market, rather than the profit and loss on paper. This is a matter of strategy, and it should be noted that the profit size depends on the entry point and position. If the entry point is good, light positions can certainly make profits. The key is that light positions are for the long term, which is the first priority; Secondly, the important thing is to accumulate small amounts of compound interest, which is the safe weapon for trading profits, rather than relying on one, two, or three huge profits!
3、 Shift the angle. Take a different perspective on trading. Every night before going to bed, don't you ask yourself: How much profit did you make today? Or how much is the loss? But the question is: Am I wrong? Where is the mistake? Am I right? Where is it? Feeling one's own changes and progress every day is fundamental to trading. So, the pain of loss and the joy of profit no longer occupy the main position in your mind. This is very important. After getting used to it, you will consciously observe the market trend, learn from the market, and only occasionally check the bill.
The operation method of gold operation layout trading:
1Vibration method:
The market is mostly in a volatile pattern, and selling high and buying low between boxes during market fluctuations is the most basic way to stabilize profits. The indicators used areBOLLBox theory. The prerequisite for success is to identify resistance support based on various technical indicators and graphics. The principle of using the oscillation trading method is that short-term buying and selling should not be greedy.
2Methods for breaking through disk changes:
After a long period of consolidation, the market will eventually choose its direction, and chasing after the direction change is the fastest way to achieve stable profits. It is required to have good ability to judge changes, a stable mentality, and avoid greed and fear.
3Unilateral trend approach:
After the market breaks through the market trend, the market will choose a direction. After the formation of a unilateral market trend, taking advantage of the situation to make orders is an eternal truth. In every callback or rebound, there is an opportunity to place an order, which is the best guarantee for stable profits! Here are the technical indicators used:KLine, moving average,BOLLTrend line! Require proficiency in mastering the above indicators.
4Resistance support method:
When the market encounters significant resistance support, it often gets blocked or supported. Placing orders when blocked or supported is a common method and the most common way to achieve stable profits. The indicators used are trend lines, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and parabolic indicators, which require very accurate judgment of resistance support.
5Methods for callback and rebound:
After a significant rise or fall in the market, there may be a brief pullback or rebound. Seizing such an opportunity is the easiest and simplest way for us to make stable profits. The main application indicators areKThe line shape requires a very good sense of direction and the ability to accurately determine the high or low points of the stage.
6Time period approach:
In general, the fluctuations in morning and afternoon trading are relatively small, and the market is easy to grasp. It is suitable for investors with a gentle personality to operate. The disadvantage is that the time for placing orders to profit is prolonged, and sufficient patience is required. Late and early morning trading experience significant fluctuations, allowing for quick profits and ample room for multiple operations. Suitable for investors with radical personalities to operate, the disadvantage is that the market is difficult to grasp, prone to errors, and requires high technical skills and judgment ability!
Investment itself is a game, not only a science, but also an art. Most people may not understand investment and think it is just about making money. However, the true meaning of investment is for investors to learn how to use and control money, that is, the ability to make money. As a financial investment, it is a very special investment because it is completely a game of money and naturally requires the help of platforms for all financial investments.
The author Shi Wanjin is a financial investment analyst who has been working in the financial industry for many years, researching international situations and hot events. The financial field is vast and profound, with daily market fluctuations. All I can do is use my years of research experience to help everyone. myself06I entered the financial field in [year] and have rich practical experience. I am skilled in trends, investment, and living a balanced life. I enjoy fishing, mountaineering, hiking, and fitness, seeking truth from facts, and not bothering anyone. Keeping up with the market is our unchanging choice. Strive to do the right thing, and it all depends on who you go with! Wen Dao has its own sequence, and there are specialized professions.Wen/Shi Wanjin  (WeChat:swj178）