MBG Markets-Expectations of a US economic restart may boost the value of the US dollar Risk of short-term deposit decline in non US currencies

MEXprospect
goldOn the one hand, yesterday's rise in the US dollar index to some extent limited the upward trend of gold prices, but overall the bulls remain strong in structure. The short-term upward factor for gold still lies in the price disconnect between the spot market and the physical gold market. It is expected that gold prices will continue to have strong momentum, but traders should be reminded again to1757Only after the breakthrough can we continue to follow up, and before that, we should mainly focus on realizing profits.
crude oilOn the one hand, it is clear from the market that the price war in Saudi Arabia has not ended yet, and bears have continued to pressure the oil market. However, although the magnitude of the price decline has significantly weakened, it shows that the market is still rational at present, and is well aware that going long in the face of such low oil prices may be more cost-effective than going short. Yesterday, Saudi Energy Minister Aziz stated that if other countries cooperate, Saudi Arabia can reduce its crude oil production to85010000 barrels/In the future, the United States is also considering providing funding for drilling platforms to support producers in reducing production. It is expected that these two major benefits will gradually reflect their support for oil prices in the future.
In terms of the foreign exchange market, there was no significant positive news for the US dollar in terms of fundamentals yesterday, but the rebound of the US dollar index briefly led to a surge1%The expectation of a US economic restart is expected to boost the US dollar, and today Trump will also respond to the details of the economic restart. There is still room for the US dollar to rise in the short term, but the impact of the Federal Reserve's purchase of junk bonds will gradually become apparent in the future. Coupled with the current rise of digital currencies, the US dollar may face an overall downward crisis; In terms of non US currencies, the previous rally ended due to the rebound of the US index, and it is expected that they may generally enter a downward trend in the future. However, traders are reminded to cash in the profits from this previous rebound in a timely manner.
MEXviewpoint
XAUUSD(gold)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1685
resistance1 : 1757
Overall, the pessimistic expectations of economic recession and long-term interest rate decline have laid the foundation for an overall bullish trend in gold prices. In addition, the current pursuit of price balance between the spot gold market and the physical gold market has also given gold prices sustained upward momentum. The fluctuation of the US dollar index may create a certain degree of uncertainty for gold in the short term.
Technically priced at4Hour level formationAB=CDstructureCThe sub wave operation of the segment trend also follows the same patternAB=CDGo ahead and add that the current price has already reached the blue expansion line100%Location, yesterday we suggested that the operation should mainly focus on realizing profits from long positions, and today we will continue to emphasize that only when the price is officially broken1757Only then can we continue to follow up on long positions.
USOUSD(Meiyou)futures）
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 24.24  brace2 : 21.15   
resistance1：27.46
Yesterday, Saudi Energy Minister Aziz stated that if other countries cooperate, Saudi Arabia can reduce its crude oil production to85010000 barrels/In the future, the United States is also considering providing funding for drilling platforms to support producers in reducing production. It is expected that these two major benefits will gradually reflect their support for oil prices in the future. The short-term market is still dominated by pessimistic sentiment that the price war is still ongoing.
Technically, oil prices have broken through the previous range of volatility. If short-term prices do not break through27.46If suppressed, there will be a continued oscillation range1：1The downward movement of space.
EURUSD (EUR/USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.0755  brace2 : 1.0634  
resistance1：1.0953  resistance2:1,1030      
The Eurozone economy has entered a clear recession, which is not conducive to the euro as a whole, but if the US dollar index fluctuates violently, it will force the euro to have a negative correlation trend.
Technically speaking, the euro has been in a downward trend after being attracted to long positions, and has rebounded in the past week. We also reminded short bulls yesterday to pay attention to exiting and realizing profits. However, previously23.6%The suppression has not been tested and has turned into a downward trend. Short term traders can1.09530Under successful suppression, short positions with light positions and follow up with Fibonacci support as the target.
GBPUSD(GBP to USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
Support:1.2170
resistance : 1.2650
In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental disadvantage on the UK side, coupled with Johnson's discharge providing positive news, the pound still has an overall advantage, but the fluctuation of the US dollar index brings uncertainty to the pound's rebound.
Technically, the pound is still in a relatively stable rebound structure, and theoretically, the suppression point is still at the blue expansion line61.8%Position, but the bulls should be in1.2650Only then can we follow up and be cautious of further price rebound in the short term. During this period, pay attention to the support of Fibonacci ratios.
USDJPY(USD to JPY)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 106.44  
resistance1 : 109.30
There are signs of an escalation in the COVID-19 situation in Japan recently, which has put pressure on the Japanese yen. In addition, Japan's record high holdings of US Treasury bonds have also suppressed the yen, and it is expected that the US dollar may rebound against the Japanese yen in the later period.
Technically, pay attention to Fibonacci38.2%Suppressing and breaking prices may lead to a sustained rebound, while there is a risk of short-term rebound after accumulating momentum.
AUDUSD(AUD to USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 0.6070
resistance1：0.6420  resistance2:0.6695   
Yesterday in Australia4Month Western Pacific/Melbourne Consumer Information Index recorded1991The lowest level since the beginning of the year indicates that the current market pessimism remains strong, and the rise in risk appetite is just an illusion. Therefore, the Australian dollar may end its previous rebound trend.
Technically, the Australian dollar is facing a test of rebound trend line support. If the price breaks down, it will make a correction for the entire rebound, and if not, there is still a possibility of bulls continuing.
NZDUSD(NZD to USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
resistance:0.6240   
brace1 : 0.5844  brace2 : 0.5700  
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is seeking the possibility of doubling quantitative easing, which will have a greater impact on the long-term trend of the economy. After the illusion of rising risk appetite dissipates, the New Zealand dollar is also facing a resurgence.
Technically, the price has fallen below the previous rebound trend line, and the downward trend is quite obvious. Fortunately, yesterday we reminded the bulls to timely realize their profits. Next, we can focus on the downward trend with Fibonacci support.
USDCAD(USD to CAD)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.3885
resistance1：1.4166  resistance2:1.4359   
Although the Canadian interest rate decision yesterday kept interest rates unchanged, it announced two new plans to acquire provincial and corporate bonds, putting overall pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Technically speaking, we have made a slight adjustment to the Canadian dollar as the current price has already broken through the downward trend line. Next, we will mainly focus on the rebound trend of the market against the previous decline and follow up with the Fibonacci ratio.
USDCHF(USD to Swiss Franc)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.9594
resistance1：0.9700
There is currently no significant change in the fundamentals of Switzerland, and the USD/CHF exchange rate is more closely following the fluctuations of the USD index.
Technically, the trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc is relatively vague, and it may fall into a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. Traders can operate within a range and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach.
HK50(Hang Seng Index)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：23686
resistance1：24488
The general rebound of global stock markets has driven the recovery of the Hang Seng Index, while at the same time, China's fundamentals continue to improve, maintainingAThe view that stocks and Hong Kong stocks are in a good period of layout, but a bullish outbreak may take time, which could lead to a volatile market trend.
Technically, there are signs that the price has broken through the channel and returned to a volatile trend. If it is weak, you can refer to the Fibonacci retracement ratio to fall short. However, if the price breaks through the channel again and is suppressed by the lower track, it may continue the bullish trend.
Focus on financial information/event
Note: ★ represents importance
09：30  Australia3Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment    ★★★★
16：00  Germany3monthCPIMonthly rate final value    ★★★★
17：00  eurozone2Monthly industrial output rate    ★★★★
20：30  From the United States to4month11Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week(ten thousand people)    ★★★★★
         U.S.A4Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index    ★★★★
undetermined     OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report    ★★★★
undetermined     G7Leaders hold video conference to discuss and coordinate anti epidemic measures    ★★★★