MBG Markets：如何鉴定是回撤还是反转？

In the world of antique collection, those who do not study antique appreciation knowledge diligently but always fantasize about "picking up leaks" often stumble because even "experienced players" often overlook them. Even if they happen to encounter "treasures", they may miss out on opportunities due to various factors. Therefore, "picking up leaks" is not an easy task. The threshold for collecting antiques is extremely low. As long as there is money, everyone can suffer a setback. Many players initially entered the market with a lot of enthusiasm, but in the end, none of them were hit hard and even unwilling to mention entering the industry. Whether it can be collected as a "treasure" is highly valued for fate and wealth, but in the face of a disastrous defeat, it can only be blamed on the player's lack of proficiency in learning.

It's also an investment, in theforeign exchangeIn the market, "retreat" is probably what investors imagine as "picking up loopholes". "Retreat" is one of the easiest "opportunity traps" for traders. They only know how to use small bands for trading, thinking they have seized the "opportunity", but in fact, it is only a waste of their time and money, often causing them to miss the real opportunity, which is "reversal".
But traders may have decided to engage in such trading not only because of their lack of skill, but also because of their innate greed and laziness. Are you aware of the problem? Stop relying on fantasy to predict market trends, but truly master the basic knowledge of foreign exchange and become proficient in various foreign exchange technical analysis tools, accumulating and summarizing through repeated practice.
If you want to pick up your heart and start anew, it's not too late. Let's start today's class! MBG MarketsWe will teach you how to identify "pullback" and "reversal", and inform you of which analytical tool can help you identify the above two situations. If you can learn this skill, then you are not much different from "experienced players"! In the future, in the trading market, one can easily find the "treasures" they think of, rather than relying on luck to "pick up loopholes".
In order to more intuitively see the difference between the two, Present the knowledge points in the form of a memo, as shown in the following figure:

The content of the above memorandum emphasizes that traders should always pay attention to market changes; Next, there are some analysis tools that can help identify whether a "rollback" or "reversal" occurred:


Method 1: Fibonacci withdrawal

The Fibonacci horizon is a tool commonly used by traders to identify "pullbacks". In most cases, before continuing the overall trend, the price retracement process usually occurs in the early stages of the trend38.2%、50.0%、61.8%Encountering obstacles near Fibonacci's retreat position; If the price crosses the above level, it indicates that a reversal pattern is likely to occur. It should be noted that the technical analysis tools we use are not precise scientific calculations, and this kind of "certain occurrence" will occur100%You won't see the word "charter" in the foreign exchange market!
You can see the following legend: Before the price continues the overall trend, its first retreat occurs in the early stage of the trend61.8%Fibonacci's retreat level is hindered; After exercising for a while, the price experienced a pullback, following the previous trend50.0%Fibonacci's retreat level is hindered. These two retreats did not cross the horizontal level, so the reversal situation did not occur, and the price continued the overall upward trend and formed a new high.

Method 2: Hub points

Another way to identify whether prices are "falling back" is to use pivot points. This is very simple! Traders can observe whether prices have fallen below lower support levels during their pullback process, as prices are in an upward trendS1、S2、S3; Or if the price is in a downward trend, will the price break through higher resistance levels during its pullback processR1、R2、R3. If there is indeed a fall or wear, then a reversal is very likely to occur!

Method 3: Trendline

The final method to introduce is that we can use trend lines to identify whether prices have experienced a pullback or reversal. When a major trend line is broken, a reversal may occur. As shown in the figure below, traders use continuous and major resistance levels to draw a downward trend line. Prices break through this trend line during later movements and move in the opposite direction for a period of time. Does this mean that prices will reverse and become an upward trend? Not necessarily. At this point, we can combine the previously discussed "candle pattern" to improve the accuracy of our judgment.

Foreign exchange technology tools only help you predict future price trends, and the data indicators they bring only provide us with a possible bias. We cannot trade 100% based on their results. At this time, we need to rely on additional accumulated practice and experience to help us make better judgments.