MBG Markets：紧急降息加剧恐慌 拿钱到底能否“消灾”

MBGprospect

从宏观角度来说，此次恐慌的直接诱因是肺炎而非金融业危机，所以当市场不看好疫情防控时恐慌就难以消散，从此角度来说，央行就是拿再多的钱也恐怕难以解决问题，故危机能否扭转的最终关注点仍是疫情。但100个点的降息外加7000亿美元的购债，叠加全球央行联动宽松起码注入了短暂的流动性，故理论上来说资产抛售变现的需求或有缓解；而昨日gold的下挫主要是美联储缺乏沟通机制的突然袭击让市场恐慌且愤怒，但在实实在在的利好面前，除非是自杀式的打法，否则冲动过后总会有理性，故我们依旧维持黄金将迎来暂缓抛售的反弹，而在重启抛售之后再次下跌的观点。
（在面对史无前例的行情之下，是机遇亦是陷阱，交易者需要紧握资金管理的基线，此时的盈亏靠的不是分析，惟有资管，我们去年花了数篇文章对资管进行了详解，交易者可重新翻阅进行参考。）
crude oilAs of now, there are already140多个国家和地区面临肺炎的威胁，从而造就了原油需求上正面临着史上最为严重的收缩局面，所以油空的走势几成定局；而昨日由恐慌造就的抛售也让我们预计的28美元重测甚至是新一轮下跌变得更加真实，建议接下来继续以高空为主。

In the foreign exchange market,从昨日美指向下跳空收十字星的表现来看，也说明市场是拿到了钱的，“美元荒”虽未消失但起码有所缓解，其不确定性在于市场到底缺多少钱（这个没有人知道），以及市场情绪是否依旧愤怒，若除去这两者风险来计算，美元涨幅受限是较大概率；欧元如期实现了本周较有优势的反弹，短期或将以ABCstructure持续；英镑或正在印证因“全民免疫计划”令市场寒心的观点，依旧偏空；商品货币方面主要关注加元，或因油价的孱弱遭受更大的打压。

MBGviewpoint

XAUUSD(gold)

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1 : 1450
resistance1 : 1548  resistance2: 1606
Under the contradictory impact of liquidity scarcity and panic, the overall gold price is expected to maintain a dramatic shock pattern, but in the short term, it will be affected by the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut100Basis points and7000The $100 million expansion of the balance sheet will provide liquidity assistance in a relatively short period of time and stimulate gold buying.
Technically4The hour level was formed last Friday5浪下跌（5浪昨日出现延伸浪），昨日价格于拓展线100%位置探底拉升，接下来需用1524的上破来确认下跌的结束，若是如此行情仍将开启ABC反弹走势，ASegment rebound suppression point or at the dividing line38.2%Near.

USOUSD(Meiyou)futures）

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1 : 31.0  brace2 : 28.0
resistance1：38.8  resistance2：44.0
疫情带来的需求压缩和价格战带来的供给溢出为油价形成空头的双面夹击，整体定调下行格局，此外全球恐慌情绪的蔓延亦加剧了油价的进一步下行。
Technically目前应跌破31美元，价格如期向28美元进行测试，预计小幅反弹之后仍将进一步下行。

EURUSD (EUR/USD)

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1 : 1.1050  
resistance1：1.1326   
欧洲央行货币工具的枯竭叠加流动性紧缺或灾后续继续令美元受到追捧，整体上令欧元承压；不过美联储的降息措施或限制美元涨幅并使欧元反弹。
TechnicallyThe euro is falling to4Hour level rise segment61.8%位置支撑，目前正如期接对下跌段进行反弹修复，反弹压制关注蓝色分割线61.8%Location.

GBPUSD(GBP to USD)

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1：1.2130  
resistance1: 1.2440  resistance2:1.2590   
美联储的紧急降息带来hi的美元短期下跌或阻力英镑反弹，但英国方面的“全民免疫计划”若无法扭转，英镑或就此进入一跌不回头的走势。
Technically英镑如期孱弱，目前价格已经破位拓展线61.8%位置，只要1.2320不上破则延续下跌走势，下看拓展线100%位置；但若该价格上破，英镑可能面临反弹测试通道下轨的动作。

USDJPY(USD to JPY)

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1:103.9  brace2：102.7  
resistance1:108.0
美元在全球范围内的短缺在整体上仍将助涨美元，但昨日日本央行在紧急会议之后仅宣布了增加6万亿日元的ETF购买，从力度上弱于美联储，此对日元有提振效果。
Technically, the United States and JapanIt was tested for rebound last Friday4The previous period of decline in the hourly level61.8%位置且有承压迹象，昨日如期延续回落修正，当前仍有向下测试反弹段分割线61.8%The demand for, and this point is in the early rebound period23.6%Point overlap. The support is relatively obvious, and short-term bears focus on this position, and may stabilize and rebound in the future.

AUDUSD(AUD to USD)

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1 : 0.6100  brace2 : 0.6000
resistance1：0.6330 resistance2 : 0.6400  
目前商品货币仍将至疫情的拖累下处于整体弱势的格局，惟美元可能出现涨幅受限并为澳元带来短期的反弹。
TechnicallyThe price is falling below2018year9month30起的趋势线支撑之后，此位置由此转换为压制，交易者可在短期反弹之后继续维持高空的策略，下看2008年低点，若价格震荡走低至0.6000仍可能有反弹，但倘若价格直接跌破2008年低点，或引起进一步的加速下跌。

NZDUSD(NZD to USD)

Data source:MBG Markets

resistance1 : 0.6160  resistance2:0.6270     
brace2 : 0.5980  
At present, commodity currencies are still in a weak overall pattern under the drag of the epidemic, but the huge interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may bring a short-term rebound to the New Zealand dollar.
technologyThe New York dollar jumped to the expansion line this morning61.8%位置反弹拉升，预示此前下跌段有完结迹象，接下来或进入反弹修正阶段，建议可等反弹完成之后进行高空。

USDCAD(USD to CAD)

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1 : 1.3690  
resistance2：1.3992   
原油的下挫以及加拿大央行的宽松措施令加元处于整体偏弱的状态，预计加元将持续震荡走弱的态势。
Technically美元兑加元在近期的修正需求一直以震荡走势进行消化，建议整体操作上以通道下轨附近介入多单，短线于上轨附近离场，并持有底仓看至2016Annual high point.

USDCHF(USD to Swiss Franc)

Data source:MBG Markets

brace1：0.9340  brace2 : 0.9188   
resistance1：0.9595
Due to the emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve this morning, the US dollar index has been under downward pressure, leading to short-term strengthening of non US currencies; But the pursuit of the US dollar due to market liquidity may continue to drive up the US dollar in the future.
TechnicallyThe US dollar fell against the Swiss franc before rebounding to this point61.8%位置附近承压，下方明显支撑在反弹段61.8%附近，短空者关注此目标并于后市关注此位置的企稳情况。令价格若正式上破0.9500则增大行情结束回调风险，由此美瑞将续刷新高。

HK50(Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)

Data source:MBG Markets
brace1：22716
resistance1：24785 resistance2 : 26025
This morning, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates100At the same time, the People's Bank of China has announced a targeted reserve requirement reduction starting from today. The easing measures of major central banks around the world may cause a certain rebound in the stock market in the short term, and Hong Kong stocks will also be boosted from it。
Technical aspect价格已经跌至1month20Starting from the day, the downward expansion line200%位置，若价格再继续下行则面临2019year7月份低点的测试，但价格上破22716则可能迎来止跌反弹。

Focus on financial information/event

Note: ★ represents importance
17：30  britain2Monthly unemployment rate    ★★★★
         britain2Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits    ★★★★
         britain1Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate    ★★★★
18：00  eurozone3monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index    ★★★★
        Germany3monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index    ★★★★
20：30  U.S.A2Monthly retail sales rate    ★★★★★
21：15  U.S.A2Monthly industrial output rate    ★★★★