Industrial Investment: European Bank unexpectedly did not lower interest rates Euro confidence plummeted due to setbacks

Industrial Investment: European Bank unexpectedly did not lower interest rates Euro confidence plummeted due to setbacks
2020year3month13day
Fundamentals
As the pandemic panic intensifies, the market once again begins to panic and sell comprehensively, including hedginggoldAll of its assets fell sharply, and the euro even collapsed because the European Central Bank failed to cut interest rates as scheduled, which made the market think that Europe's response to the COVID-19 epidemic was insufficient300The United States, on the other hand, has continued to exert both fiscal and monetary policies, attracting capital inflows and gaining significant upward momentum.
In general, if the central bank's stance is more hawkish than market expectations, it will benefit the domestic currency. However, when the COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread around the world, if the relevant parties do not take action, market confidence will collapse. In last night's interest rate resolution, the European Central Bank approved the implementation of a new round of stimulus measures to compare deposit rates-0.5%Lower interest rates0.75%Providing loans to banks is equivalent to the central bank lending to banks while also paying interest, and will expand the scale of bond purchases this year1200Billion euros, with a focus on purchasing corporate bonds. However, due to the fact that the market had completely digested the expectation of the ECB's interest rate cut, the ECB unexpectedly maintained the deposit rate unchanged and shifted greater responsibility to fiscal policy, which was seen by the market as insufficient response measures, resulting in a heavy setback for the euro.
At a time when the European Central Bank's actions are dragging on, the Federal Reserve has once again taken action to stabilize the market. The Federal Reserve announced that it will provide funding to the overnight lending market this week1.5Trillion dollars in funds and starting to purchase more US bonds with different maturities as part of monthly bond buying operations. However, this move only further increased demand for the US dollar, but still failed to regain market confidence.
Under the shadow of global public health, there are huge market differences, and no matter what the central bank does, it is difficult to satisfy the market. Not taking action will be perceived by the market as lacking in response, and taking measures will be perceived by the market as a situation that is already bad enough to force action. In this context, the market is inevitably volatile, and investors should focus on prevention. Pay attention to the Bank of England's unexpected emergency interest rate cut this Wednesday50The meeting minutes released at a certain point may drive the short-term trend of the pound.
Technical aspect
euro/dollar
After a sharp drop in the daily chart, it included a candlestick with a long downward shadow, but the random indicators tend to further decline, with weak short-term fluctuations.4The downward trend of the hourly chart remains intact, with1.1080A first-line rebound may be difficult to sustain. The short-term decline of the moving average in the hourly chart may suppress the rebound of the exchange rate. Suggestions for the day1.1225Short selling on the front line, paying attention to1.1080Nearby horizontal.
support level ： 1.1080 1.1050 1.1000
Resistance level: 1.1225 1.1260 1.1300
pound/dollar
Sunchart Breakthrough1.2730After accelerating downward, it is still weak,4The short-term moving average of the hourly chart is arranged in a bearish position, and the current downward trend is fierce. After a significant decline in the hourly chart, it will temporarily remain1.2490Stable on the front line but lacking rebound strength, still bearish. Suggestions for the day1.2575Short on the front line, break down1.2490follow-up.
Support position: 1.2490 1.2400 1.2350
Resistance level: 1.2575 1.2640 1.2690
dollar/Japanese yen
The daily chart is still subject to downward pressure10The daily moving average suppresses a decline, but the random indicators tend to rise and are temporarily expected to fluctuate.4The hourly chart first suppresses and then rises, still continuing106.00There are signs of obstruction on the front line. Hour chart down in103.00Support for rebound found above, but above106.00Encountering resistance nearby. Suggest cautious operation within the day, slightly inclined105.30Short below and below103.00Seeking backhand long opportunities above.
Support position: 103.00 102.70 101.20
Resistance level:105.30 105.50 106.00
gold
The daily chart shows a strong decline, but there is still no signal to stop the decline, but below100The daily moving average may provide support.4The hourly chart shows sharp short-term actions, currently at a low level in the front1560Frontline consolidation, with a tendency towards eventual downward breakthrough. After a sharp drop in the hourly chart, it is still expected to expand the decline. Suggestions for the day1580Short below, break below1560follow-up.
Support position: 1560 1550 1545
Resistance level: 1580 1590 1600
silver
After the sharp decline in the daily chart, there is still no signal to stop the decline, and it is still expected to expand the decline.4The short-term downward trend of the hourly chart is fierce and still bearish. The hourly chart fluctuates downward, with bears still dominating. Suggestions for the day15.75Short below, break below15.40follow-up.
Support position: 15.40 15.20 15.00
Resistance level: 15. 75 15.85 16.00