MBG MarketsEvening technical report 2020-03-11

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference - - -This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。
[/li][li]On the Eurozone front,Its own economic data and epidemic prevention and control are not ideal, but it is only necessary to pay attention to the measures taken by the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. The market has already lowered interest rates for the European Central Bank10Digest individual points and be cautious of unexpected possibilities that may cause market fluctuations; Currently, the euro is more influenced by the US index.Yesterday, the US dollar index closed strong and made a regular retracement this morning. It is expected to continue to rebound in the future, so attention can be paid to the opportunity for a pullback after the euro rebounds.
[/li]

[li]On the UK side,Previously, the easing of tensions in negotiations between the UK and Europe boosted the trend of the pound, and coupled with the relatively small number of confirmed cases of the epidemic in the UK, the pound was expected to strengthen; But yesterday, the UK Health Secretary's diagnosis of pneumonia may reignite market concerns, and the market is still digesting expectations of UK interest rate cuts, which has also limited the long position of the pound.The stacked US dollar index has recently rebounded, and the pound is now facing the risk of returning to the downward channel.
[/li]

[li]In terms of commodity currency,Affected by the Saudi oil price war, the Canadian dollar has suffered a heavy decline. However, in recent days, oil prices have faced a short-term rebound, which to some extent alleviates the weakness of the Canadian dollar. However, due to the indirect impact, there may be sluggish positive news, and the rebound of the US index may limit its strength. So we maintain beauty/Add（USDCAD）On the expansion line100%-161.8%The view of range fluctuations allows traders to take light positions, sell high, and buy low.In addition, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have rebounding opportunities in conjunction with the improvement of the COVID-19 situation in China. However, due to the suppression of panic on Monday, the hard-earned rebound structure established last week was destroyed. Next, they will step back to build a new rebound structure, and there is still a need to consolidate support towards low levels in the short term. Traders should closely monitor the formation of the rebound structure below.
[/li]

[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,The intensification of risk aversion caused by the epidemic has led to a resurgence of risk aversion in the Japanese yen, but the worsening of the epidemic in Japan is also quite severe, making it more likely for the yen to be sold off when the US dollar rebounds,The short-term US dollar index may still have room for rebound, and there is a risk of sustained weakness in the yen.
[/li]

Commodity marketsite

[li]Trading preference –This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Vibration andcrude oil（WTI）The viewpoint of oscillation bias.The risk aversion sentiment has established an overall bullish pattern for gold, but the lack of market liquidity and high profit taking will limit the short-term increase in gold prices,Therefore, we anticipate that there will be opportunities for gold prices to fluctuate and recover, and we are concerned about1620-1700Range, the small suppression given in the morning has been in place, and traders can now make appropriate short positions.
[/li][li]In terms of oil prices, before the oil price war became clear (and as mentioned earlier, we do not believe it will end in the short term), the overall oil prices remained bearish.However, it is currently difficult for all parties to make the oil price drop in one step when probing the bottom line of the other party's prices, andTechnically28The US dollar is2016Year and Year2011With years of overlapping support, bears at this position are also cautious. In the short term, it is still recommended to see a rebound first, or reconsider it on Thursday or Friday of this week.
[/li]

abstract

[li]CFTCCapital flow data supports beauty/Rui rebounded.
[/li]

[li]Gold（XAU）Can continue to hold.
[/li]

Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1355	105.00	1.2868	1.3575	0.6540	0.6220
midline	1.1220	106.60	1.2712	1.3575	0.6660	0.6350

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	38	1,650
midline	31	1,620

Economic Calendar