MBG Markets:The US dollar rebounds as scheduled, short-term or sustained, but cannot be seen as a positive signal

MBGprospect



goldOn the one hand, the continuous escalation of the epidemic will still provide support for bullish gold for a long period of time. However, the current risk that needs to be paid attention to is the short-term selling caused by lack of liquidity, as well as the short-term profit taking after the high rise of gold prices. This will provide opportunities for the short-term downward correction of gold prices; At present, many countries are pushing measures to stimulate the economy, and market sentiment will be slightly calmer and expected to respond accordingly. As a result, the action on gold prices can be suppressed in the short term. Yesterday, gold fell as scheduled (bearish traders need to cash in some profits), and it is expected to continue to move forwardABCAdjust the structure to fall back.
crude oilOn the one hand, although it was reported yesterday that Russia's attitude was showing signs of softening, the incident has not truly eased. On the surface, the price war seems to be targeting Russia, but under the continuous increase in US oil production and the reduction in production, OPEC+All are victims, and Russia was the first to confront and resist. Saudi Arabia also finds it difficult to bear the pain of long-term production cuts and exploitation. Therefore, this price war is trying to spread the tide, but the blow cannot be completed in one step. Currently, all parties are testing the red line that the other party can bear for low oil prices, which has led to a short-term rebound after the decline (following multiple orders to achieve partial profits). But as long as the event is over, the future decline in oil prices is still foreseeable.
In the foreign exchange market, yesterday the US dollar index successfully rose by more than1%Above, create2017The largest increase since the beginning of the year, but in fact, Trump's stimulus measures have not yet been officially passed, which precisely proves that what we are saying is that economic stimulus measures are just an excuse for the rebound of the US dollar. It is expected that this rebound will continue in the short term, but traders need to recognize that this is not a positive signal conveyed by the market. We will once again see the downward trend of the US dollar index after this rebound (suppressed by the upward trend)97.5Nearby); Affected by the strong US dollar, all non US currencies are under pressure. Short sellers need to timely cash in some profits. In addition, before the rebound of the US index ends, non US currencies will not be subdivided for the time being. The overall situation will be viewed as under pressure, and follow-up will be conducted later.




MBGviewpoint



XAUUSD(gold)





brace1 : 1650 brace2: 1620
resistance1 : 1671 resistance2: 1706
Hedging will overall keep the market enthusiastic about the upward trend of gold, but currently the biggest risk for gold is the potential selling risk caused by the lack of liquidity in the market; In addition, the current market is already concerned about the Federal Reserve3Interest rate reduction within the month75The expectation of one basis point has been digested, and it is not ruled out that the gold price will be adjusted to prepare for a subsequent rebound.
Technically priced at2month5Starting from the day of expansion100%Falling under pressure,2month28The upward trend line that has been rising so far has fallen below, and gold prices will begin to decline on MondayABCRevise the trend and pay overall attention to the red segmentation line61.8%. But today's prices may form a sideways trendBSegment adjustment, short-term small suppression1765。




USOUSD(Meiyou)futures）




brace1 : 31.0 brace2 : 28.0
resistance1：38.8 resistance2：44.0
Due to the intervention of various forces, there are signs of easing in the oil price war in the short term, giving oil prices a chance to breathe after a huge drop. However, the relevant events have not yet ended, and it is expected that oil prices will decline again once the market recognizes that the situation cannot be alleviated in the short term.
Technically, traders can use spatial measurement structures as a reference for resistance support, and28The vicinity of the US dollar is2016At the annual low point, this is Saudi Arabia's2014The technical support provided during the suppression of shale oil at the beginning of the year can still be expected to further rebound in oil prices in the short term.




EURUSD (EUR/USD)




brace1：1.1230 brace2:1.1058
resistance1：1.1357 resistance2:1.1513
The Eurozone's own data is weak, and the recent rise of the euro is mainly due to the decline of the US dollar index. Therefore, the trend of the euro largely depends on the market's short-term confidence in the US dollar; Currently, the market has already lowered interest rates against the European Central Bank10The expectation of one basis point has been digested, and if the European Central Bank's easing falls short of expectations, it may limit the short-term rise of the euro.
Technically, the euro is currently viewed based on the Elliott wave theory channel. Yesterday, the price has already broken through the purple channel's downward trend. Currently, attention is being paid to the support of the blue channel's downward trend, and there is a high probability that it will fall below and officially enter the marketABCFalling trend, otherwise beware of prolonged bullish trend.




GBPUSD(GBP to USD)




brace1：1.2868 brace2：1.2712
resistance1: 1.2995 resistance2：1.3073
From the overall situation of the epidemic, it is relatively good for the UK to be below control in Europe and America. Among the more than a thousand confirmed cases in Germany, France, and Italy, the UK only has over 300 cases. However, yesterday's diagnosis by the UK Minister of Health may have raised further concerns in the market. Coupled with current market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, the pound is expected to be weak in the short term.
Technically, yesterday's decline was deeper, and unless there is a significant recovery of lost ground today, the previous momentum building action will evolve into a downward trend of returning to the channel; But we need to pay attention to the expansion line in the future61.8%Support, only after breaking through can a channel like downward trend be determined. In the short term, we can see a rebound and focus on suppressing the segmentation line.




USDJPY(USD to JPY)




brace1:103.7 brace2：101.1
resistance1：106.6 resistance2：108.0
Due to Japan's own severe epidemic, the market is concerned that the Japanese economy will fall into a technical recession, so if the yen, as a safe haven asset, is subjected to stronger pressure in the rebound of the US dollar index.
Technically, the United States and Japan have already broken the previous structure of channel breaking and subsequent decline, which needs to be seen from the perspective of2month10The rebound in the downward trend from the beginning of the day, pay attention to it within the day23.6%If supported, there is hope for further testing in the future61.8%Location.




AUDUSD(AUD to USD)




brace1 : 0.6435
resistance1：0.6566 resistance2 : 0.6644
At present, commodity currencies are still severely suppressed by the epidemic, and the rebound of the US dollar index has put greater pressure on non US currencies; We only hope that China's economic recovery can bring action to the Australian dollar.
The sharp decline in technology last Monday broke the rebound structure of the Australian dollar last week, and as a result, the market is undergoing a new round of structural construction as scheduled0.6435The vicinity is an important focus, and only when it officially stabilizes above this point can there be hope of building a rebound structure, otherwise the Australian dollar may face a new round of decline.




NZDUSD(NZD to USD)





resistance1 : 0.6342 resistance2：0.6447
brace2 : 0.6170
At present, commodity currencies are still severely suppressed by the epidemic, and the rebound of the US dollar index has put greater pressure on non US currencies; We only hope that China's economic recovery can bring action to the New Zealand dollar.
The sharp decline in technology last Monday broke the rebound structure of the New Zealand dollar last week, and as a result, the market proceeded with a new round of pattern construction as scheduled0.617The vicinity is an important focus, and only when it officially stabilizes above this point can there be hope of building a rebound structure, otherwise the New Zealand dollar may face a new round of decline.




USDCAD(USD to CAD)





brace1 : 1.3575
resistance2：1.3806
Although oil prices rebounded yesterday, the Canadian dollar ultimately failed to reverse its weakness, indicating that before the price war became clear, the indirectly dragged Canadian dollar's response in the short term would be relatively sluggish. However, be careful not to react positively later.
Technically, in the expansion line structure where the US dollar rose against the Canadian dollar at the beginning of this year, the price was61.8%Clear support, followed by a rebound, currently almost under pressure100%Position can be suppressed as a defense to test the price drop.




USDCHF(USD to Swiss Franc)




brace1：0.9188
resistance1：0.9438 resistance2：0.9595
Against the backdrop of the continued weakness of the US dollar index, the safe haven function of the Swiss franc has returned, and this factor will still lead to the appreciation of the Swiss franc as a whole; But in the short term, the US dollar may face a rebound correction that may limit the appreciation potential of the Swiss franc.
Technically, the US dollar against Swiss franc has been successfully tested2019year12Monthly expansion line161.8%Supporting and rebounding may indicate a temporary suspension of the downward trend. The next step is to see the technical correction of the previous decline in the market. In the future, the market will continue to use the segmentation line to suppress points as a bullish target.




HK50(Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)




brace1：24785 brace2:23688
resistance1：26025
Yesterday, global stock markets generally rebounded, with Hong Kong stocks rebounding slightly; The gradual improvement of the COVID-19 situation in China has driven a positive trend in the domestic stock market, which may provide Hong Kong stocks with good opportunities for bullish positioning.
The rebound in the downward trend of technology, with prices currently in a state of decline2019year1month20RecentlyABCIn the downward trend, the price downward test is completed on MondayAB=CDThe structure shows signs of stopping the decline, and the short-term rebound correction trend can be seen, but above61.8%The suppression is obvious, and the market may face retesting support after this rebound.




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