Industrial Investment Crude Oil Weekly Review: Low Demand&There is no hope of reducing production, and oil prices have hit rock bottom

Industrial Investmentcrude oilWeekly review: sluggish demand&There is no hope of reducing production, and oil prices have hit rock bottom
2020year3month9day
International oil prices were initially boosted by stimulus measures from some central banks last week, reaching a one week high. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread globally, the already bleak outlook for energy demand is further exacerbatedOPEC+The production reduction agreement came to an fruitless end, and Saudi Arabia lowered crude oil sales prices and planned to expand crude oil production, dragging international oil prices back down again in the second half of the week, hitting a low of over three years. As of closing, United StatesWTI 4Monthly crude oilfuturesAccumulated decline throughout the week27.15%Report collection32.50dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week48.63dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to29.99dollar/Bucket. Brent5Monthly crude oil futures have accumulated a decline throughout the week8.83%Report collection45.56dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week53.84dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to45.15dollar/Bucket.
Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve(3month3day)Surprisingly announced a reduction in the target range of the federal funds rate50Basis points, to1%-1.25%This is an emergency measure aimed at helping the US economy resist the negative impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Subsequently, the Bank of Canada lowered interest rates50One basis point and South Korea announced11.7Trillion Korean won(98USD100mn)The economic stimulus plan, along with the World Bank's announcement of an emergency aid plan to address this deadly virus, has prompted global policymakers to work together to combat the coronavirus(covid19)The measures taken to address the negative impact have improved market sentiment and provided support for oil prices.
Although the emergency stimulus measures of major central banks temporarily boosted oil prices, they failed to ease people's concerns about the slowdown of economic growth caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. The interest rate cut highlights the Federal Reserve's concern about the COVID-19, which has spread to all parts of the world. Recently, multiple countries including France, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland have all reported more than100For example, Iran adds more than1000Example:. According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, there are already over10.510000 confirmed cases;5.8Ten thousand people have recovered, but the number of deaths exceeds3500. The United States already has20Human deaths, including those in Washington state17People, California1People, Florida2People. stay32Both the state and Washington D.C. have confirmed cases. Some White House officials privately believe that the future48Within hours, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States will double or even more. Due to an increase in the number of cases, Italy has closed the Lombardy border. According to the latest data, as of Monday, the total number of Italian people diagnosed with COVID-19 was7375For example, the number of deaths varies from233People rise to366People. Meanwhile, Michael, Executive Director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergency Program?Ruian6It was said in Geneva on the th that there is no evidence that COVID-19 will disappear by itself in summer. At present, all countries should fight against COVID-19 with all their strength, but COVID-19 cannot be expected to disappear by itself in summer like influenza virus.
Due to the reduction in global energy demand caused by the coronavirus, the number of ships serving as floating barrels for oil and liquefied natural gas is increasing. According to the ship tracking companyKplerThe data is expected to be available on Tuesday79The ship only stores crude oil and condensate at sea, which is higher than a year ago64Ship. Traders often load crude oil onto ships at lower prices and lock in higher prices in the future. However, the recent oversupply at sea is due to a decrease in demand. Oil trading giantsVitol GroupResearch Director Giovanni?Cerio(Giovanni Serio)At present, the economic situation does not require an increase in oil reserves. The increase in offshore oil reserves may increase the downward pressure on oil prices.
Major global institutions have lowered their economic growth forecasts, indicating the danger that the pandemic poses to global economic development. The slowdown in global economic growth has seriously suppressed the demand for crude oil in the market. The OECD pointed out in its latest economic outlook that the global economic growth rate is expected to only be2.4%, for2009The lowest level since the beginning of the year, lower than last year11Monthly forecast2.9%. The Asian Development Bank announced on Friday that it expects the pandemic to reduce global economic growth this year0.1-0.4Percentage points, economic growth in developing regions of Asia other than China may decrease this year0.2-0.5One percentage point. Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund Chairman Georgieva stated last Tuesday that the rapid spread of the pandemic is expected to2020The annual global economic growth rate will be lower than2019Of2.9%The revised forecast will be released in the coming weeks. Previously,IMFstay1Monthly estimate2020The annual global economic growth rate is3.3%。
After two days of intense discussions,OPEC+The agreement aimed at expanding production cuts to boost oil prices ultimately failed.OPECAllied Russia opposes Saudi Arabia's led expansion of production cuts to15010000 barrels/Japan's proposal has intensified concerns about oversupply. from14A group of member states and their alliesOPEC+Unable to reach an agreement on extending the current production reduction. This means that the current production reduction agreement is in place3month31After the expiration of the date, oil producing countries can freely control their own oil production. After the breakdown of production reduction negotiations, Saudi Arabia announced on Saturday a significant reduction in the selling price of crude oil, with a discount of over20The largest in recent years to attract foreign refineries to purchase Saudi crude oil;Simultaneously consider incorporating necessary4The crude oil production in the month has increased to a daily level1200Ten thousand barrels. This move is seen as a response to Russia's refusal to joinOPECRevenge for large-scale production cuts. As Saudi Arabia plans to increase crude oil production, the oil price war will cause serious damage to the financial markets.
The growth in crude oil inventories announced by major US institutions slowed down last week, and the number of US oil wells also decreased. American Petroleum Institute(API)The latest data shows that as of2month28During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased16910000 barrels to4.47Billion barrels, analysts expect an increase333.310000 barrels;Cushing inventory reduction14010000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory390Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect a decrease212.410000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil170Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect a decrease182.2Ten thousand barrels. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of2month28During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased78.410000 barrels to4.441Billion barrels, market expectations increase264.410000 barrels;Reduced inventory of Cushing crude oil197.110000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil400.8Ten thousand barrels, seven consecutive weeks of decline and recorded2019year3The largest decline since the beginning of the month, with reduced market expectations185.210000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory433.9Ten thousand barrels, decreasing for five consecutive weeks, market expectations decreasing223.9Ten thousand barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week1010000 barrels/Solstice131010000 barrels/Day, setting a new record high. Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(Baker Hughes)The latest data shows that as of3month6During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased4Seat to682seat;The total number of active oil and gas drilling increases3Seat to793Seat, continuously recording an increase for four weeks;Reduction in active drilling of natural gas1Seat to109Seat.
Looking ahead to this week, crude oil traders will continue to monitorAPI、EIAIn addition to crude oil inventories and active drilling data from Baker Hughes, attention should also be paid to Monday's International Energy Agency report(IEA)Tuesday's U.S. Energy Information Administration(EIA)And Wednesday's OPEC(OPEC)Monthly oil report,EIAThe monthly report focuses on the expansion of US crude oil production capacity,OPECThe focus of the monthly report is on the implementation of the production reduction agreement,IEAThe monthly report focuses on the outlook for global crude oil demand. The economic data to be released by the United States this week includes:2Monthly consumer price index(CPI)、2Monthly government budget, weekly number of applicants for unemployment benefits2Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)、2Monthly import and export price index3Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month. The key focus is on inflation data,HYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)Analysts expect1Month as a wholeCPIThe annual rate will change from last month's2.5%Slow down to2.3%The monthly rate will remain unchanged from the previous month, with zero growth. Core inflation will increase month on month and year on year respectively0.2%and2.3%The growth rate remained unchanged from last month. If the data falls below expectations, it may mean that households may lose confidence in their economic resilience and their ability to meet the Federal Reserve's inflation targets. When the unemployment rate is below4%Against the backdrop of no suspense about "full employment", inflation has become the only remaining policy target of the Federal Reserve. Although the Federal Reserve values it morePCEThe inflation level measured by the price index, butCPIandPCEPrices are highly correlated, therefore, if the latestCPIThe report indicates an increase in inflationary pressure in the United States, which will support the expectation of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate cuts. However, the global outbreak of the coronavirus has intensified expectations for the Federal Reserve to relax its policies, and currently the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again at its policy meeting in March. In terms of central bank dynamics, two weeks before the Federal Reserve policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials will enter a "silence period" and are prohibited from making any statements during this period. In addition, the development of the international trade situation is also an important risk that investors need to pay attention to. Finally, the development of the coronavirus epidemic also constantly affects the emotions of investors, and further spread of the epidemic will have more negative impacts on oil prices.
Technically speaking, the spread of the Poly Plus channel in the weekly chart of the US oil company has caused oil prices to fall below the lower bound,14Zhou He20The weekly moving average is bearish, while the slow moving random index continues to decline in the oversold area.KThe candlestick chart shows a solid bearish candlestick, indicating strong selling pressure above. It is expected that oil prices may continue to fluctuate and decline this week. The supports are located separately28.00、27.00、25.50The resistance in order is31.00、32.40、33.80。
The spread of the Poly Plus channel in the weekly oil distribution chart has caused oil prices to fall below the bottom track,14Zhou He20The weekly moving average is bearish, while the slow moving random index continues to decline in the oversold area.KThe candlestick chart shows a solid bearish candlestick, indicating strong selling pressure above. It is expected that oil prices may continue to fluctuate and decline this week. The supports are located separately31.00、30.30、29.20The resistance in order is33.00、34.60、36.00。