Industrial Investment: The imbalance between crude oil supply and demand intensifies, and oil prices plummet to a new low in many years

Industrial Investment:crude oilThe imbalance between supply and demand has intensified, and oil prices have plummeted to a new low in many years
2020year3month9day
Due to the global outbreak of the coronavirus, it has dragged down the already slowing global economy and led to a slowdown in oil demand. In additionOPEC+The failure to reach an agreement on a production reduction plan and Saudi Arabia's plan to lower crude oil sales prices and expand crude oil production scale will further exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance. International oil prices continued to plummet significantly last Friday, falling for the fourth consecutive trading day. As of the close of trading in the United StatesWTIcrude oil4monthfuturesClosing down4.57USD, or9.89%Report41.63dollar/Bucket, highest reach46.36dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to41.03dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil5Monthly futures closed lower4.57USD, or9.12%Report45.56dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray50.41dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to45.15dollar/Bucket.
The global COVID-19 continues to spread, and the outbreak crisis is growing. The newly confirmed cases in France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and other countries are more than100For example, Iran adds more than1000Example:. According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, there are already over10.510000 confirmed cases;5.8Ten thousand people have recovered, but the number of deaths exceeds3500. The United States already has20Human deaths, including those in Washington state17People, California1People, Florida2People. stay32Both the state and Washington D.C. have confirmed cases. Due to an increase in the number of cases, Italy has closed the Lombardy border. According to the latest data, as of Monday, the total number of Italian people diagnosed with COVID-19 was7375For example, the number of deaths varies from233People rise to366People.
The Washington Post recently reported that some White House officials privately believe that the future48Within hours, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States will double or even more. On Friday, Vice President Mike of the United States?Pence acknowledges that in most areas of isolation, the United States lacks testing tools.
Meanwhile, Michael, Executive Director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergency Program?Ruian6It was said in Geneva on the th that there is no evidence that COVID-19 will disappear by itself in summer. At present, all countries should fight against COVID-19 with all their strength, but COVID-19 cannot be expected to disappear by itself in summer like influenza virus. This has also intensified market concerns about the epidemic.
In addition, Morgan Stanley's latest data shows that China will2020Annual interest reduction0.75%，3Monthly interest reduction0.50%，4Monthly interest reduction0.25%At the same time, the gross domestic product will be(GDP)Downward adjustment of growth rate to1.5%And the previous prediction was1.8%。
The market originally expected that,OPECWe will further reduce production to boost oil prices. But after the negotiations broke down on Friday——OPECAllied Russia refuses to agree to a production reduction15010000 barrels/Japan's proposal - increasing concerns about oversupply.
from14A group of member states and their alliesOPEC+Unable to reach an agreement on extending the current production reduction. This means that the current production reduction agreement is in place3month31After the expiration of the date, oil producing countries can freely control their own oil production. On Saturday, Saudi Arabia announced a significant reduction in crude oil prices sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East, and the United States, with discounts exceeding20The largest in recent years to attract foreign refineries to purchase Saudi crude oil;At the same time, preparations are being made to make necessary changes4The monthly oil production has increased to a daily level1200The plan of ten thousand barrels is a record breaking number. This move is seen as a response to Russia's refusal to joinOPECRevenge for large-scale production cuts. As Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil production, the oil price war will cause serious damage to financial markets.
However, on the other hand, Saudi Arabia's move may force Russia to returnOPEC+Negotiate at the table and pave the way for a final compromise. Because Russia also wants to consider protecting Venezuela's interests, otherwise Venezuela's interests will be seriously affected by the decline in oil prices, and the oil based Venezuelan economy has already been under pressure from US sanctions.
Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(Baker Hughes)The latest data shows that as of3month6During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased4Seat to682seat;The total number of active oil and gas drilling increases3Seat to793Seat, continuously recording an increase for four weeks;Reduction in active drilling of natural gas1Seat to109Seat.2020year2In the month, the active drilling of oil in the United States increased3This is the second month of growth recorded in the past three months. although2019The total number of active oil drilling in the United States decreased in the year208Seat, but US crude oil production has increased from2019At the beginning of the year117010000 barrels/Daily rise to12month20Of129010000 barrels/Day.
USD Index
Since the opening of the US dollar index last Friday96.631The level continues to decline, falling below96.00Psychological barrier, falling to2019year2month4New low since the beginning of the day95.673Although the US nonfarm employment report and trade account data showed strong performance, they failed to provide strong support for the US dollar. The outbreak of coronavirus hit the global economy, and the risk aversion was high. The yield of US treasury bond bonds hit a record low, increasing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates.
Market response to coronavirus(covid19)The growing concern has led to a surge in risk aversion sentiment, and market participants have turned to safe assets. United States10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds fell to0.487%The historical low point was reached, and then0.522%Nearby fluctuations and declines20Basis points. In addition,30The yield of one-year US treasury bond bonds fell to1.0%Below, it has reached a historic low. Federal Reserve3The rising expectation of another interest rate cut in May also seems to put pressure on US bond yields. In addition, the United Statesstock market indexFutures are also approaching-5.0%The daily limit down line.
The US Department of Labor released strong non farm employment data, which showed2New additions in the United States in the month27.3Ten thousand job opportunities, exceeding expectations17.5Ten thousand,1Monthly data from22.5Wanshang Xiuzhi27.3Ten thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate has slightly decreased to its lowest level in decades3.5%The key average hourly wage increased month on month and year on year, respectively0.3%and3.0%。 U.S.A1Month and2The monthly employment has increased27.3Ten thousand people, this is the best two month growth rate in two years. However, amidst concerns about the coronavirus in the market, this data did not elicit too much reaction from the market.
According to data released jointly by the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis last Friday, the United States1Monthly international trade deficit from12Of486$100 million to453USD100mn “1The monthly export amount is2086Billion US dollars, compared to12The export volume in the month is low9"Billions of dollars," the report states“1The monthly import amount is2539Billion US dollars, compared to12Monthly import volume is low42Billion US dollars
White House Economic Advisor Larry?Kudelo told reporters last Friday that the Trump administration is considering immediate fiscal measures instead of formulating tax reduction plans before the election. The Federal Reserve has done a good job in lowering interest rates. If the global demand is huge, the Federal Reserve should provide more dollars, and the US bond market may be transmitting people's expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy.
In addition, Boston Fed Chairman Rosengren stated last Friday that if the coronavirus outbreak prompts the Federal Reserve to launch a new round of large-scale asset purchase programs to stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve should be allowed to purchase more securities or assets. If the coronavirus causes the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to near zero, the United States10The one-year treasury bond bond interest rate may follow closely. This situation means that there is little room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by buying a large number of long-term US treasury bond bonds. This will bring new challenges to policymakers at the Federal Reserve. Still skeptical about the implementation of negative interest rates in the United States.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices developing below the downward trend;14and20Daily moving average bearish;The random indicator fell into the oversold zone.
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil prices developing below the downward trend;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators fluctuate and fall in oversold areas.
1Hour chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil prices closely following the downward trend development;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days29.70-32.40Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above31.00Psychological barrier, will be explored after breakthrough32.00Psychological barriers, followed by2016year1month26Daily high point32.40and33.00Psychological barriers, and3month9Daily high point33.85and2016year1month29Daily high point;And the following supports attention3month9Daily low point29.70Psychological barrier, falling below will lead to further exploration2016year1month22Daily low point29.50And then2016year1month15Daily low point29.10, and2016year1month18Daily low point28.20and2016year1month21Daily low point27.90。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil prices falling below the bottom track;14and20Daily moving average bearish;The random indicator fell into the oversold zone.
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil prices developing below the downward trend;14and20Bearish moving average;Random indicators continue to decline in oversold areas.
1Hour chart: Poly plus channel diffusion, oil prices developing below the downward trend;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators are declining in oversold areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days31.60-35.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above2016year1month15Daily high point34.00Breakthrough will be explored2016year2month8Daily high point34.65And then2016year2month17Daily high point35.00, and36.00Psychological barriers and2016year2month26Daily high point37.00;And the following supports attention2016year2month15Daily low point32.80Falling below will lead to exploration2016year2month17Daily low point31.80And then2016year1month15Daily high point31.00, and2016year2month10Daily low point30.30and2016year1month15Daily low point29.20。
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