Industrial investment: COVID-19&The Great Changes in the Middle East Safe haven assets surged

Industrial investment: COVID-19&The Great Changes in the Middle East Safe haven assets surged
2020year3month9day
Fundamentals
Although the US non-agricultural sector is still strong, the market is dominated by concerns about the global COVID-19, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will have to take more interest rate cutting measures, and the US dollar continues to fall sharply, breaking96.00Gateway. More carry trades have closed positions, driving up the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, while commodity currencies are indirectly supported by the sharp drop in the US dollar, but the risk aversion itself still weakens their performance.
U.S.A2Monthly increase in non agricultural employment population27.3Ten thousand, much higher than expected increase17.5Ten thousand. Previous values from22.5Wanda Upgraded to27.3Ten thousand. Subsequently, US President Trump signed a document78The emergency spending bill for COVID-19 epidemic of US $billion, and again called on "the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and take stimulus measures. This also made the market think that even if the non farm data is beautiful, the Federal Reserve will still3Continue to lower interest rates at monthly interest rate meetings50As a result, the US dollar only briefly rebounded slightly after the data and resumed its previous decline.
Last Friday,OPECUnable to reach an agreement with Russia on deepening production cuts,OPEC+The three-year agreement between them ended on the same day, in response,OPECAll production restrictions have been lifted.. On Saturday, Saudi Aramco will sell all levels to all destinationscrude oil4The official monthly selling price has been lowered. In addition, it was reported on Sunday that Saudi Arabia plans to abandon its strategy of supporting oil prices and instead favor grabbing market share, which will shift from4Starting from the month, there has been a significant increase in oil production to over100010000 barrels/Day. The huge changes in the Middle East have caused international oil prices to suffer at the opening of this week1991year1The largest decline since the United States launched the war in Iraq has further increased market panic. The US dollar index and commodity currencies saw a significant bearish opening, while the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, euro, andgoldJump high into the air.
The intraday market sentiment will continue to drive the market's direction, with safe haven currencies such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc performing well. Although gold also has a safe haven attribute, the sharp drop in oil prices is expected to constrain its price increase.
Technical aspect
euro/dollar
The action on the daily chart can be fierce, but it is still expected to further rise.4The hourly chart opened high in the early morning session and then hit a new high, maintaining a good upward momentum. The hourly chart fluctuates upwards, with strong bullish momentum. Suggestions for the day1.1390Keep going long above.
support level ： 1.1390 1.1340 1.1290
Resistance level: 1.1500 1.1520 1.1570
pound/dollar
Daily chart shows a strong upward trend, breaking throughMA100Resistance, maintaining above this line, is expected to expand the increase,4The hourly chart opens high with a jump, and in the short term, it may hit a gap, but the overall upward momentum remains intact. The hourly chart fluctuates upwards, and the short-term may step back1.3000Seeking to rise again on the front line. Suggestions for the day1.3000Do not break long
Support position: 1.3050 1.3000 1.2940
Resistance level: 1.3120 1.3170 1.3200
dollar/Japanese yen
Daily chart is affected by5The daily moving average is suppressing a rapid decline, but there is still no signal to stop the decline.4The downward trend of the hourly chart remains intact and continues to be bearish. The hourly chart showed a sharp drop in the Asian market in the early morning session, followed by an expansion of the decline and a fierce downward trend. Intraday tendency103.50Short below, break below102.00follow-up.
Support position: 102.00 101.60 101.00
Resistance level:103.50 104.20 105.20
gold
Daily chart up breaks through previous highs1690Nearby, pay attention to whether it can stabilize above this level.4The hourly chart breaks upwards, and the short-term moving average may provide support. The hour chart briefly dips in the plate1642The first line has stabilized and rebounded to a new high, while the short-term trend is relatively volatile, and we are wary of a pullback. It is recommended to operate cautiously within the day and be cautious of any pullbacks.
Support position: 1690 1678 1668
Resistance level: 1703 1710 1723
silver
Daily chart on17.60Facing resistance on the front line, there may be a short-term pullback.4Hourly chart, morning market, jumping high, opening high in the front17.60Collecting a cross star below does not rule out the possibility of a short-term reversal to a downward trend. Hour chart follow17.15Supported, if it falls below this level, it is expected to experience a pullback. Suggestions for radical individuals within the day17.40Short below, break below17.15follow-up.
Support position: 17.15 17.05 17.00
Resistance level: 17.40 17.50 17.58