Industrial Investment: Risk aversion is prevalent Non agricultural or difficult to save US dollars

Industrial Investment: Risk aversion is prevalent Non agricultural or difficult to save US dollars
2020year3month6day
Fundamentals
COVID-19 is spreading rapidly worldwide, and the market is worried that the impact of the epidemic on the economy is far greater than expected. Before the severe situation, the market had much greater expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction space than other major central banks, suppressing the sustained significant decline of the US dollar and indirectly driving up non US assets. After a brief rest, safe haven assets quickly rose again,goldPull up close40USD to1675Nearby, the Japanese yen rose more than170Click to refresh last year9Since the beginning of the month, the Swiss franc has reached a new high against the Japanese yuan2018year3Since the beginning of the month, the euro has briefly pierced through last year's high point12Monthly high point1.1238。 However, commodity currencies are risk assets, suppressed by safe haven sentiment, with both the Australian and Canadian dollars closing lower against the US dollar.
The COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is far more serious than previously reported by the United States government. As of5In the afternoon, confirmed cases in the United States163For example, distributed in18In each state, the number of deaths reached12For example, the mortality rate is as high as6.96%It is twice the world average. California is being diagnosed53Declare a state of emergency after the first occurrence of related deaths and cases;After New York State increased surveillance efforts, the number of confirmed cases doubled overnight22People. At present, the United States has again relaxed the conditions for COVID-19 testing, allowing patients with fever, cough, dyspnea and other symptoms to receive COVID-19 nucleic acid testing after doctor approval. However, the United States suddenly stopped publishing important figures such as the number of people tested for COVID-19 and the number of people tested negative, and stopped publishing the number of confirmed cases in each state, for the reason of "inaccurate data", which made the market more panicked and believed that the current domestic epidemic situation in the United States was very bad. The severe epidemic situation in the United States will continue to put pressure on the US dollar and US stocks.
On the UK side, the Bank of England's interim governor Pele said that the central bank should wait until it has a clearer understanding of the economic impact of sudden public health emergencies before making any interest rate cuts, which has lowered people's expectations for the central bank's interest rate cuts. In addition, the first round of trade negotiations between the UK and Europe ended in Brussels. The EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Banier, said that the two sides reached some consensus in the first round of negotiations. It is possible to reach an agreement with the UK, although it is difficult.
The US non-farm report will be released tonight. Against the aggressive background of the COVID-19 epidemic, even if the US non-agricultural sector performs well, it may be difficult to provide strong support for the US dollar. On the contrary, if non farm performance falls short of expectations, it is expected to accelerate the decline of the US dollar. Meanwhile, Canadian employment data was also released, with the Bank of Canada following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts50After a few basis points, the performance of the Canadian job market is expected to exacerbate short-term fluctuations in the Canadian dollar.
Technical aspect
euro/dollar
The action on the daily chart can be fierce, but it is still expected to further rise.4After sorting out the high positions in the hourly chart, it further broke through and expanded its gains, but there is still no correction signal. Hour chart on1.1120The front line remained stable and fluctuated upwards, with bulls still dominating. Suggestions for the day1.1210Top long, top break1.1250follow-up.
support level ： 1.1210 1.1190 1.1170
Resistance level: 1.1250 1.1280 1.1300
pound/dollar
Although the daily chart rebound is suppressed by the downward trend line, random indicators still show further upward space,4The hourly chart continues to rise, and short-term actions can be sharp, but effective upward breakthroughs are neededMA200It is expected to expand the increase. The hourly chart fluctuates upwards and remains bullish. Suggestions for the day1.2940Top long, top break1.2970Follow up and see1.3000.
Support position: 1.2940 1.2920 1.2900
Resistance level: 1.2970 1.3000 1.3020
dollar/Japanese yen
Daily chart is affected by5The daily moving average is suppressing a rapid decline, but there is still no signal to stop the decline.4The downward trend of the hourly chart remains intact and continues to be bearish. Hour chart on107.70Affected by resistance below, the market fluctuated lower, and currently bears still dominate. Intraday tendency106.50Short below, break below106.00follow-up.
Support position: 106.00 105.70 105.50
Resistance level:106.50 106.75 107.00
gold
Daily chart skyrocketing and breaking1660But in the front high1689Be cautious and bullish nearby.4After breaking through the short-term overbought correction in the hourly chart, it may rise again. The hourly chart continues to rise, and there may be a need for adjustment in the short term. Intraday tendency1665-60Seeking stable long opportunities in the interval, breaking through1675Follow up and see1690Near.
Support position: 1665 1660 1650
Resistance level: 1675 1680 1690
silver
The daily chart rebound has been suppressed by multiple moving averages, so focus on opportunities to follow up after breaking through upwards.4The hourly chart maintains a volatile upward trend, and may rise again after a short-term correction. The hour chart rebounds on200Obstruction below the hourly moving average, pay attention17.25Support. During the day, it is recommended to operate with caution and seek advice17.25Stabilizing nearby long opportunities and paying attention to them17.50Frontline performance determines further direction.
Support position: 17.25 17.15 17.00
Resistance level: 17.50 17.55 17.70