GKFXPrimeJiekai Finance: The US Super Tuesday primaries have ended, and Biden's lead has given US stocks a temporary respite

Recently, the primary elections within the Democratic Party of the United States are in full swing, and radical Bernie Sanders, who many people hope for in a lively way, still lags behind Joe Biden after the vote results on Super Tuesday are announced65Zhang votes. After the announcement of this forward-looking result, the greedy Wall Street's hanging heart fell. Dow Jones Index3month4Day (Wednesday) closing up1173.50Point increase4.53%The stock market rose again.

(Dow Jones Index)1Hour chart, sourceGKFXPrime MT4）

What is Super Tuesday?


The United States usually holds "Super Tuesday" elections on a Tuesday in February or March. This year,14Elections are held simultaneously in multiple states, and voters are very diverse in terms of geography and population composition. The results can reveal the appeal of candidates to American voters. This is different from the final presidential election in the United States, except that the Democratic and Republican parties will have a large number of state voters voting on this day to elect the only presidential candidate within the party. "Super Tuesday" is not the end point of this party's election, taking the Democratic Party as an example,3month10It will be announced in the future365The result of the increase in votes,3month17Daily announcement577Vote result until6month2The nationwide vote counting will only end in the day. In the Democratic Party3979After the end of the Zhang representative vote, obtain1991The candidate with Zhang votes will win.

Republican Trump has peace of mind, Democratic Sanders has the possibility of theory

In the following figure, the first image is as of3month5The Democratic Party's vote count for the day, Biden566Tickets, leading501Sanders of the ticket; On the Republican side, Trump has a crushing lead, and the second candidate has won1Zhang votes.

(Partial Democratic Party Vote Results)

(Partial Republican Vote Results)

Why is everyone afraid of Sanders?


Sanders is a self proclaimed "democratic socialist", and in our view, these claims are not excessive, but please do not forget that this is in the most developed capitalist economy in the United States. The economic foundation determines the superstructure, and in the United States, the current driving force of the economy is monopolistic capitalism, which refers to large multinational corporations and monopolistic enterprises. Overall representing the interests of wealthy capitalists, Sanders hopes to rely on his own efforts to call on young people from the bottom to challenge elite political authority with him, with a low success rate. Why? Because there is no money. According to statistics, currently the wealthiest in the United States10%The family controls the whole country70%It is hard to imagine that wealthy families would willingly give up their own interests to satisfy the unrealistic fantasies of young people.

Biden, who was originally worried about the election situation, received assists one after another after other voters had no victories.3month4Today, Bloomberg founder Bloomberg announced his withdrawal from the United States2020He competed in the annual election and instead supported former Vice President Biden in winning the nomination within the Democratic Party. And if6It was still impossible to decide the winner or loser in January, and the Democratic elites still held the option of "Rocket",771The human super representative can cast decisive votes in the second round, stifling Sanders.


The Impact of Biden Sanders on US Stocks


When it comes to the impact on the economy, we have to talk about Trump's clever traps. After Trump took office, the Dow Jones index rose to its highest point50%Trump also frequently praises the performance of the US stock market during his tenure on Twitter. If the anxious situation of Democratic candidates, especially concerns about Sanders, affects the US stock market, Trump can use this to hype up and make election voters support him.

At present, the Dow Jones index is very close to the extremely important850Moving average, this moving average starts from2012In the past few years, there has never been a significant breakthrough4After the second most significant stock market crash, it can stabilize and recover. and1982Since the beginning of the year, there have been2Falling below this moving average for the second time corresponds to2001The afterglow of the foam of www.ke.net in and2008The annual financial crisis.

(The daily chart of the Dow Jones Index, shown in the figure)850Moving average

Finally, if Sanders wins the election and there is a sharp drop in the stock market, will his supporters wield weapons to stage an upgraded version of "Occupy Wall Street"? Thinking of this, perhaps Wall Street also doesn't want to see this beautiful scenery.


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