MEXDa Tong: Daily Technical Report - Difficulty in Reducing Risk Upgrades A turning point for gold may be reached within the day

MEX

prospect

goldOn the one hand, the current global interest rate cut by central banks has brought core upward momentum to gold, and from a fundamental perspective, it mostly points to bullish positions. However, our only concern is that the current Fed rate cut has not met the market's appetite. The market is currently anticipating further Fed rate cuts, and there may still be more cash left in the market for liquidity before that, which cannot be anticipated2008During the year, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and gold stocks fell together, but at least they had no defense, so they broke through in price1700Previously, it was still recommended that gold maintain a cautious attitude, and whether gold opens up new space or is still stuck in a pullback trend, today's non-agricultural data may also become an important turning point.

crude oilIn terms of aspects, although OPEC+The outcome of the meeting has not yet been officially announced, but there have been rumors of production cuts from now on15010000 barrels/The news from Japan is equivalent to deepening the previous production reduction3010000 barrels/On the day, the reduction in production is relatively small, which is also the main factor for the short-term decline in oil prices. However, the resumption of work and production in China may lead to a rebound in crude oil demand. Therefore, even if the deepening of production reduction is not significant, it remains to be seen whether it can reach a new low. We believe that the strategy of a possible rebound in oil prices is still effective and has reached a key strategic layout point.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index has once again broken through97The checkpoint is currently clearly supported by the96.4Nearby, this point will determine whether the US index can further open up downward space or rebound and repair. What needs to be paid attention to is the euro. The retaliatory rebound caused by the comparative advantage of short-term economic data has come to an end. We still believe that the market will focus again on the European epidemic and expectations of interest rate cuts in the future, and the euro may start a downward trend; The commodity currency has received some support under the interest rate cut, and the cooperation of China's resumption of work and production has also played a significant role in promoting it. It is expected to continue in the short term, but the overall situation cannot be overly optimistic.

MEX

viewpoint

XAUUSD(

gold)

Data source:MEX Markets

brace1 : 1641  brace2:1606  

resistance1 : 1674  resistance2: 1690

The fundamental factors are all pointing towards bullish gold, but the market has already bet that the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in this month's meeting minutes may lead the market to continue holding more cash flow to face current liquidity risks, until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, which may still limit the rise of gold.

Technically1662The previous price increase was basically in line with our expectations, but the price has already broken through this point, which will bring an end to the previous period2month24The recent decline has brought greater possibilities, so the overall trend is biased towards a bullish one; However, since the beginning of this week, the upward trend has been small5Wave fluctuations,1674Location is3The expansion of space by waves61.8%Suppress, breaking at this point may lead to1690For testing, if the pressure falls back, attention can be paid to the neck line support of the head and shoulder structure first.

USOUSD

(Meiyou)futures）

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 46.75  brace2 : 45.55  
resistance1：48.7  resistance2：50.43
Although OPEC+The outcome of the meeting has not yet been officially announced, but there have been rumors of production cuts from now on15010000 barrels/The news from Japan is equivalent to deepening the previous production reduction3010000 barrels/The reduction in production is relatively small, which is also the main factor for the short-term decline in oil prices. However, the resumption of work and production in China may lead to a rebound in crude oil demand. Therefore, even if the deepening of production reduction is not significant, it remains to be seen whether it can reach a new low.
Technically44.8-43.6The interval is a strong support zone for the time cycle expansion line structure. On Monday, the price rose as scheduled and reached two bullish targets, and the daily harvest pierced through the yangKAs a clear rebound signal, the downward trend in the past two days is also within the expected range,45.5The US dollar has seen a correction in its upward trend since the beginning of this week61.8%If supported at that position, the rebound can still continue, and if broken down, it may be tested further downwards.

EURUSD (

EUR/USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.1188   brace2 : 1.1099   
resistance1：1.1241   
Although the market also expects that the European Central Bank may lower interest rates10A point, but at the same time, the rate cut to the Federal Reserve is even greater, compared to the short-term strength of the euro over the US dollar; However, currently Europe is a heavily affected area by the pandemic, and the sustainability of the euro's rise is still uncertain.
Technically, the euro broke through yesterday2019year6month25Starting from today, the golden ratio61.8%The action of suppression tends to be further upward in the short term, but currently1.1241The price is2019year12month31The daily high point, if under pressure from this, there is still a possibility of a new downward trend. If it breaks above, look towards the dividing line161.8%Location.

GBPUSD

(GBP to USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.2938  brace2：1.2857  
resistance1：1.2996   
Due to the temporary digestion of the negative impact of the Anglo European negotiations, a harmonious negotiation atmosphere has emerged between the UK and Europe in the past two days, and this pound has brought some support; In addition, the sustained decline of the US dollar index has also provided momentum for the rebound of the pound.
Technically, the price was completed as scheduled for the split line61.8%Namely1.2938We suggest targeting the bulls in the short term1.2938-1.2996Consider it as an observation interval, break through the upper and lower levels, and then follow up with the trend.

USDJPY

(USD to JPY)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：106.00  brace2 : 105.00  
resistance1：106.7
Affected by the global interest rate cut by central banks, the pressure on corporate funds has been alleviated, and the demand for investors to sell safe haven assets for monetization has decreased. Therefore, there is a new opportunity for funds to flow into safe haven assets, which has boosted the Japanese yen; If the US dollar index rebounds midway, it may ease the decline of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
Technically, the United States and Japan are still in a downward trend, and in the short term, it is no longer possible to expect downward support. We can only search for obvious low prices based on time, so we have reached2019year8Monthly low point105Nearby; However, the small-scale market is currently in a state of declineAB=CDTemporary support in the structure, if the price breaks through106.7The market may further rebound.

AUDUSD

(AUD to USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.6450
resistance1：0.6670  
The previous interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of Australia has provided some support for the Australian economy. In addition, the resumption of work and production by China has also boosted market confidence in the Australian economy. It is expected that the Australian dollar may experience a certain rebound after experiencing a long-term decline.
Technically testing2018year9month30After the trend line support from the beginning of the day, the price has rebounded as expected. Currently, the price has completed the break above the red trend line, considering that the Australian dollar may continue to riseABCRebound operation, short-term price fluctuation upward test, after blue trend line, profit reduction may be carried out. Although it may break through, it is recommended to wait for the follow-upBAfter a period of decline, we will intervene in new multiple orders.

NZDUSD

(NZD to USD)

Data source:MEX Markets
resistance1 : 0.6305  resistance2 : 0.6375     
brace1：0.6190  brace2 : 0.5920  
At present, the market expects the Federal Reserve of New Zealand to also cut interest rates this month, which is conducive to stabilizing the country's economy. In addition, the resumption of work and production in China has also brought optimism to alleviate the pressure on the New Zealand economy. It is expected that the New Zealand dollar will rebound after experiencing a long-term decline.
Technically, New York is testing2015Year and Year2019After years of overlapping low levels, we have started a penetrating rebound with small levels. Therefore, we have been emphasizing the rebound trend this week, and the price is currently in a0.6305In the process of breaking through, it is possible to test the segmentation line after confirmation61.8%Nearby (New York dollars may also go)ABCThe rebound trend allows traders to appropriately cash in profits and retain their bottom positions.

USDCAD

(USD to CAD)

Data source:MEX Market
brace1 : 1.3341  brace2：1.3286   
resistance2：1.3465  
Although Canada's interest rate cut has brought some downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, its recent trend may still be influenced by crude oil prices. If oil prices rebound, the Canadian dollar may also show a rise.
Technically, the rebound trend of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar from the beginning of this month shows an upward channel structure in the closing price, with relatively weak rebound. If the closing price breaks through the channel's downward track, it may end the rebound trend. The support below is to pay attention to the blue expansion line structure. Overall, unless the price breaks through the level1.3465High point, otherwise in the short term it will still lean towards falling demand.

USDCHF(

USD to Swiss Franc)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.9438   
resistance1：0.9590
Against the backdrop of the continued weakness of the US dollar index, the safe haven function of the Swiss franc is returning in the short term. However, its holding cost remains relatively high, and traders still need to be cautious.
Technically, the US dollar against Swiss franc still tends to be pessimistic overall, and the price has reached the previously mentioned expansion line100%Position, if this position does not break, there may be a rebound; It is recommended to first enter the market with an empty order in hand, and then re-enter the market after the price breaks down, and look towards it161.8%。

HK50(

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)

Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：25780  
resistance1：26833
The current European and American stock markets are generally pessimistic, while the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in Yicheng County in China may attract international funds to flow into Hong Kong stocks, which is a potential positive factor.
The technical aspect is based on trend lines and61.8%In the triangular area formed by the support line, there is an attempt to break the trend line in price. Next, we will focus on26833Whether it can successfully stand up may open up space for further rebound of the Hang Seng Index.

Focus on financial information/event

Note: ★ represents importance
15：45  France1Monthly trade account(100 million euros)   ★★★★
16：30  britain2monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment    ★★★★
21：30  U.S.A1Monthly trade account(USD100mn)   ★★★★
        U.S.A2Monthly unemployment rate    ★★★★★★
        U.S.A2Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment(ten thousand people)    ★★★★★★
23：00  U.S.A1Monthly factory order rate    ★★★★