MBG Markets:Risk aversion soars, gold prices soar35The US dollar, non-agricultural sector is about to strike

Market Focus

Trading preference – This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）. On the one hand, the euro has been boosted by the weakness of the US dollar. On the other hand, due to the clearance of arbitrage positions, the European Central Bank's easing space is limited. Yesterday, Europe/beautiful(RURUSD)Up by over a hundred points. Considering that public health incidents may lead to some EU countries falling into recession, and next week's meeting of the European Central Bank may be disappointing, we still recommend selling Europe at high prices/US dollars. In fact, we have repeatedly reminded the euro recently（EURUSD)The rebound is almost coming to an end.1.2000The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.
On the UK side, the pound rose slightly due to the good start of trade negotiations between the UK and the European Union. In addition, Bank of England Governor Carney stated that the bank still has a lot of ammunition to resist the impact of health incidents, which also supported the pound. Therefore, in the short term, we maintain the pound as a volatile bullish structure, but above1.3000There is still strong pressure.

In terms of commodity currency, the Australian dollar was affected by the fourth quarterGDPBetter than expected and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve of Australia25Entering a wait-and-see period after a few basis points, the Australian dollar bulls are eager to try, but above0.6650It is quite stressful and requires continuous attention. In terms of the New Zealand dollar, it is basically similar to the Australian dollar. However, given the weaker trend of the New Zealand dollar compared to the Australian dollar, we believe there may be a short-term rebound, and the upward pressure is0.6350。
It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.


In terms of safe haven currencies, the US dollar index hit1month2Recently, it has reached a new low96.51. Today, the United States will release non farm payroll data, and based on recent economic data releases, we believe it will not be too bad. In addition, we have been reminding everyone earlier that the US index（DXY）On97The following are all good supports, and we will still maintain our original views.
The yen also rose sharply due to the decline in US stock market and US treasury bond bond yields. From the current perspective, beauty/The short-term negative deviation is too large, please follow below106Support. But if Japan's pension positions are readjusted, the US/The Japanese yen is expected to further weaken in the coming weeks.

MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And reach a new historical high, this week's combination and as of Beijing time3month06day07:01The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).





commodity market

Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations. In the long run, with the US long-term treasury bond bond yield hitting a new low and central banks have taken interest rate cuts, we believe that gold has a core upward logic. Adding to yesterday's decline in US stocks, gold surged. Therefore, we have once again raised the price of gold to1700dollar/ounce.
In terms of oil prices, concerns about demand have overshadowedOPECPlan to further reduce production impact and whether Russia will agreeOPECThe proposal to significantly reduce production remains uncertain, with oil prices falling. But considering the interest rate cuts andOPEC+The expectation of expanding the scale of production reduction is still there, and oil prices still have some support. Technically,46There is strong support nearby, 49For short-term pressure levels, we believe that they will continue to rise after correction.




stock market indexprospect

In terms of stock indices, the global interest rate cut has provided some support, but the turbulence caused by the spread of public health events continues to plague financial markets. On Thursday, Hong Kong stocks opened high and rose, breaking through at one point10Daily moving average, closing, Hang Seng Index closed higher2.08%。
On the market, the agricultural and securities sectors rose, while Tesla concept stocks were weak. Considering the weakness of the global market, it is recommended that investors prioritize defense in the near future. In terms of technical form,28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.



abstract

CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.

XAUCan continue to hold.
Europe/Mei can profit from being eliminated.



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