Industrial Investment: Long Short Game, International Oil Prices Fluctuate Broadly

Industrial Investment: Long Short Game, International Oil Prices Fluctuate Broadly
2020year3month5day
Due to the continued spread of the coronavirus epidemic, andOPEC+The failure of the Council of Ministers to reach an agreement on reducing production has put pressure on oil prices;But the results of the Super Tuesday Democratic presidential primaries and coordinated actions by the G7 to combat the negative impact of the coronavirus on the economy have boosted market sentiment, as well as the United StatesEIAcrude oilThe lower than expected increase in inventory provides strong support for oil prices. The intense game between long and short positions led to wide fluctuations in international oil prices on Wednesday, ultimately resulting in mixed gains and losses. As of the close of trading in the United StatesWTIcrude oil4monthfuturesIncome increase0.31USD, or0.66%Report47.33dollar/Bucket, highest reach48.38dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to46.63dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil5Monthly futures closed lower0.15USD, or0.29%Report51.47dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray53.01dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to51.02dollar/Bucket.
The National Health Commission of China announced on Thursday that there were new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in mainland China on Wednesday139For example, compared to the previous day's119There has been an increase in cases, bringing the cumulative total number of confirmed cases in mainland China to80409Example:. As of Wednesday, the death toll of coronary influenza in Chinese Mainland had reached3012People have increased compared to the previous day31People. Meanwhile, the South Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Thursday that South Korea has confirmed438New cases of coronavirus, as of3month4Day, the total number of cases reached5766Example:. The South Korean report also includes3People died from the coronavirus, and the number of deaths reached35People. In addition, in response to the outbreak of the coronavirus, California Governor Gavin?Newson declared a state of emergency. This announcement is intended to help California prepare in advance for a wider spread of the virus.
Due to the reduction in global energy demand caused by the coronavirus, the number of ships serving as floating barrels for oil and liquefied natural gas is increasing. According to the ship tracking companyKplerThe data is expected to be available on Tuesday79The ship only stores crude oil and condensate at sea, which is higher than a year ago64Ship. Traders often load crude oil onto ships at lower prices and lock in higher prices in the future. However, the recent oversupply at sea is due to a decrease in demand. Oil trading giantsVitol GroupResearch Director Giovanni?Cerio(Giovanni Serio)At present, the economic situation does not require an increase in oil reserves. The increase in offshore oil reserves may increase the downward pressure on oil prices.
Meanwhile,OPEC+The ministerial meeting failed to reach a consensus on further production cuts, putting pressure on oil prices. According to The Wall Street Journal, Russia opposes Saudi Arabia's proposal toOPEC+Further reduction in daily crude oil production120Ten thousand barrels to offset the negative impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global energy demand. Russia only hopes to extend the existing production reduction measures until the end of the second quarter. After the meeting, Iranian Oil Minister Zangane(Bijan Zanganeh)In an interview with Iranian state television, it was confirmed that the two sides were unable to reach a final agreement on reducing production.
However, as Democratic presidential candidate Biden gains an advantage in the party primaries on Super Tuesday, this is a surprise for the market as it always favors more moderate centrist Democratic candidates, which stimulates market optimism and helps maintain resilience in risk sensitive crude oil prices. In addition, following the Federal Reserve's announcement of an emergency interest rate cut on Tuesday50In addition to basis points, the Bank of Canada also followed suit with interest rate cuts yesterday50At the same time, other G7 countries have also stated that they will coordinate the implementation of fiscal and monetary policy easing, which will also alleviate the negative impact of the coronavirus on the economy and help improve the outlook for crude oil demand.
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of2month28During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased78.410000 barrels to4.441Billion barrels, market expectations increase264.410000 barrels;Reduced inventory of Cushing crude oil197.110000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil400.8Ten thousand barrels, recorded a decline for seven consecutive weeks and recorded2019year3The largest decline since the beginning of the month, with reduced market expectations185.210000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory433.9Ten thousand barrels, decreasing for five consecutive weeks, market expectations decreasing223.9Ten thousand barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week1010000 barrels/Solstice131010000 barrels/Day, setting a new record high. Last week, US crude oil inventories recorded an increase for six consecutive weeks, but gasoline and refined oil inventories continued to decline significantly.
USD Index
The US dollar index briefly fell to97.081Stable and rebounding after reaching a certain level, reaching its highest point97.556Level, due to strong US economic data performance and relatively optimistic comments from Federal Reserve officials. At the same time, the results of the Democratic presidential primaries in the United States have stimulated market optimism, and the rebound in US Treasury yields has also boosted the attractiveness of the US dollar.
American Automatic Data Processing Company(ADP)Announced on Wednesday,2Private sector employment in the United States increased in the month18.310000, better than market expectations17Ten thousand, and1The monthly data is29.9ten thousand people(Before correction, it was29.1ten thousand people)。ADPThe Vice President of Employment Data Company stated that the job market remains stable,2The number of employed individuals in private enterprises continues to increase.
American Supply Management Association(ISM) 2Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for the Month(PMI)by57.3Higher than expected54.9. Employment sub index rose to55.6New orders jump to63.1, far exceeding expectations. Only if the price index is lower than expected, for50.8. This prospective survey shows that the US economy is2The performance in the month is strong, and service industry companies remain optimistic about the outlook.
Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester spoke to NBC Finance on Wednesday(CNBC)During the interview, she expressed her support for an emergency interest rate cut given the new uncertainty in the medium-term economic outlook of the United States;The risks surrounding this prospect have significantly increased;There is still a lot of uncertainty about the course of this virus and its potential impact;this(Interest rate reduction)In fact, it is a response to the economy, prospects, and risks surrounding the prospects.
St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad recently expressed through Reuters that he opposes further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this month;I won't make any prior judgments3The results of the monthly policy meeting;3One obstacle to further interest rate cuts in the month is the action just taken, which requires citing data to justify further rate cuts;Do not want the market to overly focus on it3The monthly meeting, so there won't be too much new information;The Federal Reserve has already prevented a significant outbreak of the pandemic, and further actions by the Federal Reserve will require more severe virus transmission than expected. Earlier that day, Goldman Sachs stated that it was3month18The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again is increasing at the meeting on the day. Therefore, the statements of Federal Reserve policymakers provide additional strength for the US dollar, while also supporting the risk of further rebound.
The Federal Reserve's Brown Book shows that the US economy has expanded at a moderate to moderate pace in the past few weeks, but there are signs that the coronavirus has begun to affect the confidence of US businesses. And pointed out that the presidential election is considered a potential risk.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices developing below the middle track;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
4Hourly chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices approaching mid rail development;14and20Bullish moving average;Random indicators have declined.
1Hour chart: Poly plus channel declines, oil prices hover in the middle track;14and20The hourly moving average remains unchanged;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days46.45-48.60Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above3month4Daily high point48.40After breaking through, we will explore further3month3Daily high point48.60And then49.00Psychological barriers and2month25Daily low point49.70, and2month26Daily high point50.40and2month23Daily low point51.60;And the following supports attention47.00Psychological barrier, falling below will lead to further exploration3month3Daily low point46.50And then2month27Daily low point45.80and45.00Psychological barriers, and44.00Psychological barriers and3month2Daily low point43.50。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices developing below the middle track;14and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
4Hourly chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices approaching upward trajectory development;14The moving average is bearish,20Bullish moving average;Random indicators fluctuate higher.
1Hour chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices developing below the middle track;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days51.00-53.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above3month4Daily high point53.00Breakthrough will be explored3month3Daily high point53.85And then2month12Daily low point54.35and2month25Daily low point54.60, and2month26Daily high point55.40and56.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention3month3Daily low point51.20Falling below will lead to exploration3month4Daily low point51.00And then3month2Daily low point49.55, and2month28Daily low point48.90and2017year7month19Daily low point48.60。
Follow on Thursday:
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States
Non farm productivity in the fourth quarter of the United States
U.S.A1Monthly factory orders
OPECSection178Special Session
Dallas Fed Chairman Kaplan delivers a speech
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari delivers a speech
New York Fed Chairman Williams delivers a speech