MBG MarketsMorning News2020-03-05

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – Relatively optimistic this weekbeautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。Although the euro has recently been hit hard by the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut50Boosted by one basis point. However, considering that public health incidents may lead to a recession in some EU countries, coupled with the imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, the euro is under pressure and is declining.Actually,We have also repeatedly reminded the euro recently（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end.1.1150The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.
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[li]On the UK side,The pound hit a intraday high after an EU official claimed that trade negotiations with the UK had started well, but considering the impact of pneumonia, the Bank of England has a stronger expectation of interest rate cuts.Therefore, in the short term, we will continue to maintain a weak and volatile structure in the pound. In the short term, we can focus on the following1.2800Support.
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[li]In terms of commodity currency,The Australian dollar isG-7The best performing currency is due to the country's fourth quarterGDPBetter than expected, second is the Australian Federal Reserve's interest rate cut25Entering a wait-and-see period after a few basis points has made the Australian dollar bulls eager to try.Additionally, yesterday the Bank of Canada lowered interest rates50The basis points meet market expectations, but considering market expectations, the Bank of Canada will also4Monthly interest rate reduction25A basis point, the Canadian dollar is generally weak.
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[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,Recently, the Federal Reserve has urgently lowered interest rates in response to the economic impact caused by public health incidents50Basis points, USD（DXY）Under pressure. But based on the data released yesterday,ADPBoth better than expected and better than expected data from the service industry have boosted the US dollar.And, we have been reminding everyone in the first two daysMeizhi（DXY）On97The following are all good supports.
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[li]Yesterday, the Japanese yen fell as global stock markets rose.From the current perspective,We believe in beauty/Day on107The following are all good supports, with a slight rebound in the second half of the week.
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[li]It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantization strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α）by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And set a new historical high,This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month05day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations.In the long run, with the US long-term treasury bond bond yield hitting a new low and central banks have taken interest rate cuts, we believe that gold has a core upward logic. But the return of short-term risk appetite has hit the demand for safe haven assets such as gold.Therefore, we maintain a volatile trend for gold in the short term, and finally raise gold prices in the medium term1650dollar/ounce.
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[li]In terms of oil prices, yesterday, the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia over production cuts drove oil prices down. But considering the interest rate cuts andOPEC+The expectation of expanding the scale of production reduction is still there, and oil prices still have some support.Technically, 43For the ultimate support position, 49We believe that the short-term pressure will continue to rise after a brief correction.
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stock market indexprospect

[li]In terms of stock indices, the decrease in global interest rates has brought some support. Hong Kong stocks fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday, with early morning trading showingVThe trend of the pattern is in the end of the trading day26300Repeatedly around the point. Closing, Hang Seng Index closed lower0.24%。
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[li]On the market, the automotive and local banking sectors in Hong Kong are weak, while the gold and domestic housing sectors are doing well.Considering the weakness of the global market, it is recommended that investors prioritize defense in the near future. In terms of technical form,28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.
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abstract

[li]CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.
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[li]XAUCan continue to hold.
[/li][li]Europe/Mei can profit from being eliminated.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1150	107.50	1.2850	1.3400	0.6600	0.6270
midline	1.1150	108.00	1.2850	1.3400	0.6650	0.6300

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	48.00	1,635
midline	48.50	1,650

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