MBG MarketsEvening special report2020-03-04

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference - - -This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。Affected by the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut, the euro has been boosted in the short term. However, considering the impact of the pandemic, there are still strong concerns about the European economic outlook, so we believe that the euro will be under mid-term pressure.And we have also repeatedly reminded the euro recently（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end.1.1150The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.Today Germany and the Eurozone will announce the service industryPMIThere should be some improvement, but we believe it will not have a significant impact on the euro.
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[li]On the UK side,The deadlock in free trade negotiations between the UK and the EU has put downward pressure on the pound. In addition, considering the impact of pneumonia, the Bank of England also has expectations of interest rate cuts.Therefore, in the short term, we will continue to maintain a weak and volatile structure in the pound. In the short term, we can focus on the following1.2750Support.
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[li]In terms of commodity currency,Today, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision,Currently, the market generally expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates50Basis points; But if the interest rate cut tonight does not exceed50One basis point, the Canadian dollar may slightly rebound.Technically, beauty/Add（USDCAD）The presentation is a top deviation structure, but the indicators are still in multiple directions, so tonight will be crucial. In addition, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have already broken away from the multi kill structure and are currently in the repair stage. The core of their resurgence needs attentionRSIWhen to break through50。
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[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,In response to the economic impact caused by public health incidents, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates50Basis points, USD（DXY）Under pressure. Tonight, the United States will announceADPandISMService industryPMIBased on recent data, we believe it is generally close to expectations.The decline in exchange rates also reflects the current actual situation, therefore, we believe that the US dollar index（DXY）On97The following are all good supports, and there is not much room for short-term decline.
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[li]With the United States10The yield of the one-year treasury bond bond fell to a record low, the stock market fell, credit spreads widened, and the yen rose to an intraday high.But we believe in beauty/Day on107The following are all good supports, with a slight rebound in the second half of the week.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And set a new historical high,This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month04day16:21The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference –This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations.With the US long-term treasury bond bond yield hitting a new low and central banks have taken interest rate cuts, we believe that there is a core logic of rising. But with the global large-scale interest rate cuts, stock markets have risen, and risk aversion has cooled down, short-term fluctuations are inevitable.Therefore, we maintain a volatile trend for gold in the short term, and finally raise gold prices in the medium term1650dollar/ounce.
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[li]In terms of oil prices, interest rate cuts andOPEC+Expanding the scale of production reduction will provide some support for oil prices. Based on the trend of today's Asian stock market, we believe that the adjustment is basically in place.Technically, 43For the ultimate support position, 49We believe that the short-term pressure will continue to rise after a brief correction.
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abstract

[li]CFTCAccording to cash flow data, net short positions in the euro and yen are still at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions has not slowed down yet. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.
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[li]XAUCan continue to hold.
[/li][li]Europe/Mei can profit from being eliminated.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1150	107.50	1.2750	1.3350	0.6600	0.6300
midline	1.1120	108.00	1.2750	1.3350	0.6650	0.6300

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	48.00	1,635
midline	48.50	1,650

Topic knowledge sharing

———HMAIndicators?

[li]HMAIndicators andLMAThe indicator is exactly the opposite, it is the high price average line indicator.
[/li][li]High price average line（LMA）The basic principle is the same as the moving average, but the main difference is that the calculation basis of the high price average is the daily highest price.HMAThe high price average is mainly used to study and judge the position of temporary tops and market resistance. In the application process, it is generally used in conjunction with the low price average.
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[li]Calculation formula:
[/li][li]1、NdayHMA=NThe sum of daily high prices/N 2
[/li][li]2In the process of application,NThe number of days taken is usually selected5、14、30、72and144These five days.
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[li]Application rules:
[/li][li]1The high price average line is generally used in conjunction with the low price average line to better analyze market conditions.
[/li][li]2As long as the high price average is used in the bearish market, investors believe that its pressure effect is more valuable as a reference than the traditional average.
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