Daily Technical Report - Deepening Production Reduction Mystery Pay attention to the oil market and welcome the "big exam"

MEXprospect
goldOn the one hand, yesterday maintained a volatile pattern, with emotions leaning towards entanglement. The measures taken by major central banks around the world, centered around the Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates have provided some support for global stock markets and eased the pressure on corporate funds. This will alleviate the demand for selling gold for monetization, and the overall depreciation of paper currency under the wave of interest rate cuts will support gold prices; On the other hand, the funds released by interest rate cuts are meant to inject liquidity into the financial system, not to buy safe haven assets. Currently, cash is still the mainstream, which may continue to dampen the enthusiasm for fund hedging. In addition, gold prices have already left a large space for hedging due to the epidemic, and there is a lack of significant upward momentum in the short term; We expect a new wave of gold price increase to occur after the funding risk gap cannot be filled, or after the epidemic presents a new qualitative upgrade, before which gold may fall into a correction.
crude oilOn the one hand, there were reports yesterday that Russia still does not agree to deepen production cuts, which is why OPEC+The final outcome of the meeting brings more variables, but the epidemic has gone through two stages since the outbreak of the year before, namely the China stage and the global spread stage. The global stage continues to deteriorate, but based on data and market sentiment, there has been no qualitative upgrade at this stage, and oil prices have remained stable43.6There is suspicion that the testing of the US dollar will significantly price this bearish sentiment; And it accounts for the growth force of global crude oil demand75%China has resumed work and production, which is a clear positive for the oil market. Therefore, there is a demand for oil prices to correct the decline in China's stage. Unless further production cuts fail, oil prices are likely to have rebound momentum no matter how much production is reduced. It is also important to emphasize the importance of speculators in the rebound of oil prices.
In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index finally rebounded slightly yesterday, confirming the support brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to US stocks and also providing support for the US dollar. It is expected that this phenomenon will continue in the short term. What needs to be paid attention to is the euro. The retaliatory rebound caused by the comparative advantage of short-term economic data has come to an end. The market will now focus again on the European epidemic and expectations of interest rate cuts, and the euro may start a downward trend; The commodity currency has received some support under the interest rate cut, and the cooperation of China's resumption of work and production has also played a significant role in promoting it. It is expected to continue in the short term, but the overall situation cannot be overly optimistic.
MEXviewpoint
XAUUSD(gold)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1626  brace2:2583  
resistance1 : 1641  resistance2: 1662
In the context of urgent interest rate cuts by major central banks around the world, it will alleviate the financial pressure on enterprises, thereby slowing down the demand for investors to sell gold for monetization. In addition, the depreciation effect of interest rate cuts on paper currency has also contributed to the rise in gold prices. However, traders still need to be cautious of the market temporarily giving up excessive buying of gold to stabilize their money bags.
Technically, the gold price has been basically completed28Starting from todayBSection rebound trend,4The hourly hanging line indicates that the price has reached its peak or is about to reach its peak, which cannot be ruled out due to market fluctuations1662For testing, it is recommended to first connect empty orders in a light warehouse manner to allow for additional warehouse space in the future. Overall, we look forward to the followingCThe downward trend of the segment, defensive in1662above.
USOUSD(Meiyou)futures）
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 46.75  brace2 : 45.55  
resistance1：48.7  resistance2：50.43
Although news broke out yesterday that Russia still does not agree to deepen production cuts, we still need to wait for OPEC to come+The final confirmation of the meeting is that overall, unless there is no deepening of production reduction, this factor tends to be favorable for oil prices.
Technically44.8-43.6The interval is a strong support zone for the time cycle expansion line structure. On Monday, the price rose as scheduled and reached two bullish targets, and the daily harvest pierced through the yangKIn order to provide a clear rebound signal, we have expanded this rebound to the dividing line61.8%position50.43The US dollar (which may be higher in the future) allows traders to continue entering after a small level decline.
EURUSD (EUR/USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.1030   brace2 : 1.0928   
resistance1：1.1185   
The retaliatory rebound that the market had previously experienced when there was a comparative advantage in the Eurozone's economic data has basically come to an end. After easing the "inner oppression", the market will continue to recognize the weakness of the Eurozone's economy and the tense situation of the epidemic. Therefore, the rebound of the euro cannot be blindly optimistic; After the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut, the US index may experience a rebound after a short-term decline, and the euro may also be under pressure as a result.
Technically, the euro was successfully completed on Monday, and we see a rebound2019year6month25Starting from today, the golden ratio61.8%The expectation of the position is that the price has previously tested the upward pressure for the second time to reflect signs of pressure. It is recommended to continue to observe the downward trend of the market in response to this period of increase. The target below is to focus on the previous period1.0928Trapping forming points.
GBPUSD(GBP to USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：1.2725  brace2：1.2472  
resistance1：1.2857  resistance2 : 1.2938   
Due to the temporary digestion of the negative impact of the Anglo European negotiations, the momentum of the pound's suppression has weakened; In addition, the UK has a stronger ability to resist the epidemic compared to other countries, so there is still some support for the pound in the short term; The downward trend of the pound may need to take advantage of the further escalation of the country's epidemic, the rebound of the US dollar index, and the market's second fermentation of interest rate cuts in the UK at that time.
Technically1.2725For targeting2month20The bearish trend of the market in recent days has been highlighted by our continued emphasis on the rebound expectation of the pound and our suggestion to1.2857Breaking up to the dividing line61.8%Location, the current market is operating as scheduled, and we will continue to maintain this view. Next, we will61.8%Study new strategy adjustments after positioning.
USDJPY(USD to JPY)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：106.60  brace2 : 106.40  
resistance1：108.57
Affected by the global interest rate cut by central banks, the pressure on corporate funds has been alleviated, and the demand for investors to sell safe haven assets for monetization has decreased. Therefore, there is a new opportunity for funds to flow into safe haven assets, which has boosted the Japanese yen; However, as the US dollar index may also receive support from interest rate cuts, it may cause a volatile trend between the US dollar and the Japanese yen.
Technically, the structural support of the United States and Japan lies in61.8%and2019year10Near the monthly low point, before the price breaks through108.57Previously, it was still possible to fluctuate downwards, but if it breaks above this point, it may lead to the formation of the US and JapanABCBounce.
AUDUSD(AUD to USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.6450
resistance1：0.6670  
The previous interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of Australia has provided some support for the Australian economy. In addition, the resumption of work and production by China has also boosted market confidence in the Australian economy. It is expected that the Australian dollar may experience a certain rebound after experiencing a long-term decline.
Technically testing2018year9month30After the trend line support from the beginning of the day, the price has rebounded as expected. Currently, the price has completed the break above the red trend line, considering that the Australian dollar may continue to riseABCRebound operation, short-term price fluctuation upward test, after blue trend line, profit reduction may be carried out. Although it may break through, it is recommended to wait for the follow-upBAfter a period of decline, we will intervene in new multiple orders.
NZDUSD(NZD to USD)
Data source:MEX Markets
resistance1 : 0.6305  resistance2 : 0.6375     
brace1：0.6190  brace2 : 0.5920  
At present, the market expects the Federal Reserve of New Zealand to also cut interest rates this month, which is beneficial to the country's economy. In addition, the resumption of work and production in China has also brought optimism to the relief of economic pressure in New Zealand. It is expected that the New Zealand dollar will rebound after experiencing a long-term decline.
Technically, New York is testing2015Year and Year2019After years of overlapping low levels, we have started a penetrating rebound with small levels. Therefore, we have been emphasizing the rebound trend this week, and the price is now about to break through0.6305Afterwards, it may be possible to measure the dividing line61.8%Nearby (New York dollars may also go)ABCThe rebound trend allows traders to appropriately cash in profits and retain their bottom positions.
USDCAD(USD to CAD)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.3303  brace2：1.3286   
resistance2：1.3403  
Although Canada's interest rate cut has brought some downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, its recent trend may still be influenced by crude oil prices. If oil prices rebound, the Canadian dollar may also show a rise.
Technically, the US dollar/Canadian dollar is currently experiencing a correction in its previous gains, and this decline may also be aimed at1month7Since the daily riseABCAdjustment, currently the structural pressure on prices is still on the dividing line23.6%Location, next we will measure the structure of the expansion line100%Location.
USDCHF(USD to Swiss Franc)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.9712   
resistance1：0.9590
Despite the high holding cost of the Swiss franc and the variable market caused by Swiss bank currency intervention, the Swiss franc still did not show any clear signs of weakness due to the decline in the US dollar index; However, considering that the Federal Reserve has already rescued the market through interest rate cuts and the risk of risk aversion returning to US dollar assets, there is a lot of uncertainty in the current situation. It is recommended that the Federal Reserve and Swiss Federal Reserve maintain a cautious attitude.
Technically, the US dollar/Swiss franc still tends to be pessimistic overall, with prices falling below yesterday2019year12Monthly expansion line61.8%Support, there will be continuous downward testing next100%The possibility is that traders need to61.8%Nearby suppression serves as an empty defensive point.
HK50(Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)
Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：25780  
resistance1：26833
Previously, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates50Based on the fact that major central banks around the world have gradually withdrawn their interest rate cuts and are already on the road without any rate cuts, this move will to some extent provide support for global stock markets. As a result, Hong Kong stocks have shown a rebound today. However, due to the ongoing trend of the epidemic spreading, traders should not be overly optimistic.
Technical aspect2019year4month15Starting and expanding line61.8%After the support, it rebounded as scheduled yesterday, but the strength was weak, and the trend line will be used temporarily in the future61.8%The triangular area formed by the support line is subject to oscillation operation.
Focus on financial information/event
Note: ★ represents importance
09：45  OMCPermanent Voting Committee and Chairman of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, delivers a speech    ★★★★
16：30  OPEC convenes its first meeting178Special session    ★★★★
20：30  U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs    ★★★★
21：30  From the United States to2month29Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week    ★★★★★
23：00  U.S.A1Monthly factory order rate    ★★★★
  U.S.A1Monthly rate of durable goods orders    ★★★★
21：00  EU Chief Brexit negotiator Banier holds a press conference on the situation of the Anglo European negotiations    ★★★★