Depu Capital: According to a strategist Buffett sits with1280The real reason for billions of dollars in cash is this

Warren Buffett, who has always been a beacon of market optimism(Warren Buffett)Seems optimistic about the future trend of the stock market.

This Berkshire Hathaway company(Berkshire Hathaway)The boss clearly stated this in his annual letter to shareholders. He talked about the "favorable situation in the United States" in the letter and provided reasons to continue investing in stocks.
Buffett stated in his letter, "If interest rates close to the current rate are expected to prevail in the coming decades, and if corporate tax rates remain at their current low levels, it is almost certain that over time, stocks will perform much better than long-term fixed rate debt instruments."
But byRIA AdvisorsStrategist Lance Roberts(Lance Roberts)The chart provided by Buffett's record breaking cash reserves seems to tell a different story - in this story, what Buffett said seems completely different from what he actually did:

"As the old saying goes, 'follow the money'." Roberts said in hisReal Investment AdviceOn the blog, it was written. If he thinks stocks will outperform bonds, why do he still hold them1280What about short-term bonds worth billions of dollars
It is obvious that Buffett is just waiting for a good deal to appear so that he can snatch it up, but another reason is that he is not as optimistic as he appears. Perhaps, as Roberts said, the answer is actually in a set of charts.
This article is guided by history and examines Schiller's price to earnings ratio(Shiller price-to-earnings ratioCurrently, approximately30times)To predict10Annual total return rate:

As you can see, in the years following valuations like the stock market we see now, a large amount of deficits have already overflowed.
There is another way to view it here, using the "Buffett metric":

Just take a look at the recent instances where Buffett's favorite valuation metrics have been raised. Several indicators clearly indicate that in the future10The expected long-term returns for the year have significantly decreased again.
Roberts suggests that investors may need to be cautious before following Buffett's advice of "doing what I say, not what I do" and buying and holding index funds.
"Buffett's way of accumulating wealth is not to follow the flow, but to lead the trend," Roberts wrote. He sat and hugged1280There is a reason for billions of dollars in cash. Buffett is fully aware of the benefits he has given up, but he is still continuing his path. Buffett is not stupid! "
Due to strong rebounds in the Dow Jones, Standard&Poor's, and Nasdaq indices, this is the first time in some time that cash has been available.
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