MBG MarketsMorning News2020-03-04

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – Relatively optimistic this weekbeautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。The Federal Reserve urgently lowers interest rates50The US dollar is under pressure by one basis point. In addition, the euro has been boosted by market expectations that the US will lower interest rates more than Europe. However, considering the impact of the pandemic, there are still strong concerns about the economic outlook in Europe, and the euro remains under pressure in the medium term.Therefore, in the short term, we believe that the euro（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end.1.1150The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.
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[li]On the UK side,Due to the unsatisfactory negotiations between the UK and the EU, the pound has been under downward pressure. In addition, considering the impact of pneumonia, the Bank of England also has expectations of interest rate cuts.Therefore, in the short term, we will maintain a weak and volatile structure in the pound.
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[li]In terms of commodity currency,Yesterday, the Federal Reserve of Australia cut interest rates as scheduled25A basis point, as the market has already digested the expectation of interest rate cuts, the Australian dollar has risen instead of falling. In fact, we have already given a warning earlier.Today, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision if interest rates are lowered50One basis point, the Canadian dollar will be under pressure; But if it's a rate cut25A basis point, the Canadian dollar may see a significant rebound.
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[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,To hedge against the negative impact of uncertainties such as public health events on the global supply chain, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates50Basis points, USD（DXY）Under pressure.The exchange rate market has also been largely reflected, and technically, the US index（DXY）On97The following are all good supports, therefore, we believe that the short-term downward space of the US index will not be significant.
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[li]With the United States10The yield of the one-year treasury bond bond fell to a record low, the stock market fell, credit spreads widened, and the yen rose to an intraday high.But we believe in beauty/Day on107The following are all good supports.
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[li]It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantization strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α）by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And set a new historical high,This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month04day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations.With the decline of the stock market and the record low yield of treasury bond bonds, central banks have been prompted to take action, and the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates urgently50These are the core positive factors for gold, which are all based on one basis point.Therefore, we have raised the priceThe price of gold has finally reached1650dollar/ounce。
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[li]In terms of oil prices, currently it appears that oil prices are affected by the decline in the stock market, but the decline is limited as major oil producing countries are considering further production cuts to support prices.Technically, we have previously indicated that43For the ultimate support level, with the recent rebound, it has also reached a new pressure level49After a brief adjustment, we believe it will continue to rise.
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stock market indexprospect

[li]In terms of stock index, although affected by the COVID-19, it has brought some support with the reduction of global interest rates. Hong Kong stocks rose and fell on Tuesday, with gains exceeding those of the previous session200Point, oscillating downward in the afternoon. Closing, Hang Seng Index closed lower0.03%。
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[li]On the market, online education stocks are weak, while Alibaba's concept sector is soaring.Considering the weakness of the global market, it is recommended that investors prioritize defense in the near future. In terms of technical form,28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.
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abstract

[li]CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.
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[li]XAUCan continue to hold.
[/li][li]WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1200	107.00	1.2800	1.3350	0.6600	0.6300
midline	1.1150	107.50	1.2800	1.3350	0.6650	0.6320

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	48.00	1,640
midline	48.50	1,650