MBG MarketsUrgent interest rate cuts or relief of market funding pressure But it remains to be seen whether gold can reach another climax

MBGprospect
The most noteworthy thing yesterday was the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut50The news of one basis point has affected the short-term rise of US stocks,goldPull up. However, it is still necessary to recognize that the current interest rate cuts by major central banks may only alleviate the financial pressure on enterprises, but liquidity risk remains high. Traders need to be cautious that when various funds are dealing with gap risks, they may limit the enthusiasm of funds to buy gold in the short term. Whether gold can reach new heights from this remains to be seen.
crude oilIn terms of maintaining fundamentals, there is almost no positive factor for oil prices. Interest rate cuts will not stimulate economic growth, and the rise of the stock market will not drive bulk demand. This is the logic in the context of the epidemic, so the demand side is still in a suppressed state; But the market is concerned about OPEC+The expectation of reduced production is the best driving force for the upward trend of crude oil. After a significant decline in crude oil before, it may increase the participation of speculators, which is the main driving force for the upward trend of oil prices. In the short term, we are still optimistic about the rebound trend of oil prices.
In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index hit a new low after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and remained bearish in the short term. However, the easing of the risk of a sharp decline in US stocks after the rate cut may support the US dollar; The euro has successfully rebounded to our previous target position, and the market may return to the pessimistic sentiment of Europe as a heavily affected area by the epidemic. It is not ruled out that the European Central Bank may take loose measures to pressure the euro in the future; The recent rebound in commodity currency has been stimulated by interest rate cuts. However, it is still recommended that everyone prioritize risk control in their overall operations.
MBGviewpoint
XAUUSD(gold)






Data source:MBG Markets
brace1 : 1626  brace2:2583  
resistance1 : 1641  resistance2: 1662
In the context of urgent interest rate cuts by major central banks around the world, it will alleviate the financial pressure on enterprises, thereby slowing down the demand for investors to sell gold for monetization. In addition, the depreciation effect of interest rate cuts on paper currency has also contributed to the rise in gold prices. However, traders still need to be cautious of the market temporarily giving up excessive buying of gold to stabilize their money bags.
Technically, the price of gold has already affected what we previously mentionedBSegmental rebound1641The position will be tested, but there are short-term moves to break through this pressure in the gold price, and it will still be tested within the day1641Whether to officially break through is the focus of attention. If not, it will be officially openedCSection falling, officially breaking through may test the dividing line78.6%But even so1662If the position is not broken, you still need to be cautious about the next stepCThe decline of the segment may start, so the stabilization period is much shorter1662Subsequently, focus on the downward trend.
USOUSD(Meiyou)futures）






Data source:MBG Markets
brace1 : 46.75  brace2 : 45.55  
resistance1：48.7  resistance2：50.43
The actual demand suppression brought about by the epidemic and the expected pessimistic demand have plunged crude oil into an overall pessimistic pattern, which may still be the dominant factor; However, considering that after the initial digestion of the bearish sentiment,3month5OPEC in Japan+The production reduction meeting may provide temporary support for oil prices. Although the reduction may not fundamentally bring about a turnaround in oil prices, it will still help with a short-term rebound in oil prices.
Technically44.8-43.6The interval is a strong support zone for the time cycle expansion line structure. On Monday, the price rose as scheduled and reached two bullish targets, and the daily harvest pierced through the yangKIn order to provide a clear rebound signal, we have expanded this rebound to the dividing line61.8%Location（50.43）Traders can continue to enter the market after a small level decline.
EURUSD (EUR/USD)






Data source:MBG Markets
brace1：1.1030   brace2 : 1.0928   
resistance1：1.1185   
Previously, there was a brief comparative advantage between the economic data of the Eurozone and that of the United States, coupled with the risk of an outbreak of the pandemic in the United States, and we successfully achieved the expected rebound of the euro; However, as Europe is currently also a heavily affected area by the pandemic, we cannot be blindly optimistic about the rebound of the euro. Following the emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the US index may experience a short-term rebound after a decline, which may put pressure on the euro.
Technically, the euro was successfully completed on Monday, and we see a rebound2019year6month25Starting from today, the golden ratio61.8%The expectation of the position is that yesterday's price was tested for the second time to show signs of pressure above. It is recommended to look at the market's downward trend in response to this period of increase, and focus on the previous target1.0928Trapping forming points.
GBPUSD(GBP to USD)






Data source:MBG Markets
brace1：1.2725  brace2：1.2472  
resistance1：1.2857  resistance2 : 1.2938   
The pressure factor for the convenience of the pound still comes from the risk of Brexit, but we have been following up for two consecutive weeks and the market has already undergone some digestion; The inventory prepared by the UK to cope with Brexit risks has provided strong assistance in resisting the epidemic, so currently, the pound will instead reflect some support.
Technically1.2725For targeting2month20The bearish trend of the market in recent days, beware of the rebound demand in the future supported by this point, and continue to maintain a low bullish position for the time being1.2857Nearby, break up and see the dividing line again61.8%Location, but price breaks down1.2725It is possible to continue downward testing and break through the triangle position1:1The support of space.
USDJPY(USD to JPY)






Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：106.60  brace2 : 106.40  
resistance1：108.57
Affected by the global interest rate cut by central banks, the pressure on corporate funds has been alleviated, and the demand for investors to sell safe haven assets for monetization has decreased. Therefore, there is a new opportunity for funds to flow into safe haven assets, which has boosted the Japanese yen.
Technically, the US and Japan ultimately failed to rebound and continued to hit new lows. Therefore, the price may continue to be tested downwards, and the expansion line is currently under consideration61.8%Support and2019year10Near the low point of the month.
AUDUSD(AUD to USD)






Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.6450
resistance1：0.6670  
Since the continuation of the epidemic, global commodities have generally been under pressure, and related currencies have also been simultaneously suppressed. In the short term, the Australian dollar has little rebound momentum; However, due to the current market focus being more on the selling of the US dollar, coupled with the fact that the Federal Reserve of Australia has already lowered interest rates yesterday25Accumulation has boosted the momentum of the Australian economy, driving up the Australian dollar.
Technically testing2018year9month30After the trend line support from the beginning of the day, the price has rebounded as expected. Currently, the price has completed the breaking of the red trend line. Next, let's test the blue trend line through price fluctuations.
NZDUSD(NZD to USD)






Data source:MEX Markets
resistance1 : 0.6305  resistance2 : 0.6375     
brace1：0.6190  brace2 : 0.5920  
Since the continuation of the epidemic, global commodities have generally been under pressure, and related currencies have also been simultaneously suppressed. In the medium term, the Niuyuan has little rebound momentum; However, due to the current market focus being more on the selling of the US dollar, and the expectation that the New Zealand Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in March, it is not ruled out that this move may bring a brief stop to the decline of the New Zealand dollar.
Technically, New York is testing2015Year and Year2019After years of overlapping low levels, a penetrating rebound began with small levels. Yesterday, multiple orders completed the test of the trend line target but did not officially break it. In the future, they can go long after the decline or wait for the trend line to break before continuing to go long.
USDCAD(USD to CAD)






Data source:MEX Markets
brace1 : 1.3303  brace2：1.3243   
resistance2：1.3403  
The epidemic not only affected the overall export market of Canada, but also exacerbated the depreciation of the Canadian dollar due to the further decline in oil prices. Therefore, the logic of the Canadian dollar's decline was as expected; However, there are currently indications that oil prices may experience a rebound trend, which may drive the Canadian dollar to strengthen.
Technically, the US dollar/Canadian dollar is currently experiencing a correction in its previous gains, and this decline may also be aimed at1month7Since the daily riseABCAdjustment, price rebound test as scheduled yesterday23.6%Next, we will continue to conduct further testing based on the expansion line structure1.3243。
USDCHF(USD to Swiss Franc)






Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：0.9712   
resistance1：0.9590
Despite the high holding cost of the Swiss franc and the variable market caused by Swiss bank currency intervention, the Swiss franc still did not show any clear signs of weakness due to the decline in the US dollar index; However, considering that the Federal Reserve may introduce measures to rescue the market, and risk aversion may return to US dollar assets, there is a lot of uncertainty in the current situation. It is recommended that the Federal Reserve and Swiss Federal Reserve maintain a cautious attitude.
Technically, the US dollar/Swiss franc still tends to be pessimistic overall, with prices falling below yesterday2019year12Monthly expansion line61.8%Support, there will be continuous downward testing next100%The possibility is that traders need to61.8%Nearby suppression serves as an empty defensive point.
HK50(Hong Kong Hang Seng Index)






Data source:MEX Markets
brace1：25780  
resistance1：26833
Affected by the ongoing pandemic, global stock markets have collectively sold off significantly, driving Hong Kong stocks to continue to decline. In the short term, the impact of peripheral markets on Hong Kong stocks may continue; However, as the epidemic in China has gradually been brought under control, more attention should be paid in the futureAThe performance of the stock market, if stabilized, may slow down the decline of Hong Kong stocks.
Technical aspect2019year4month15Starting and expanding line61.8%After the support, it rebounded as scheduled yesterday, but the strength was weak, and the trend line will be used temporarily in the future61.8%The triangular area formed by the support line is subject to oscillation operation.
Focus on financial information/event
Note: ★ represents importance
09：45  China2Yuecai New Service IndustryPMI    ★★★★
15：30  Switzerland2monthCPIMonthly rate    ★★★★
16：50  France2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value    ★★★★
16：55  Germany2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value    ★★★★
17：00  eurozone2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value    ★★★★
17：30  britain2Monthly service industryPMI    ★★★★
21：00  european union27Finance ministers and the European Central Bank held a teleconference on the COVID-19    ★★★★
21：15  U.S.A2monthADPEmployment numbers(ten thousand people)    ★★★★
22：45  U.S.A2monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value    ★★★★
23：00  U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturingPMI    ★★★★
23：00  Bank of Canada Announces Interest Rate Resolution    ★★★★
23：30  From the United States to2month28Day and WeekEIACrude oil inventory(10000 barrels)