MBG MarketsEvening special report2020-03-03

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference - - -This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。With the Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point increase has put pressure on the US dollar. In addition, coupled with the recent performance of the Eurozone's economic data exceeding expectations, the euro has surged. The Eurozone will announce today2Monthly inflation data is expected to show a slight rebound. However, considering the impact of the pandemic, there are still strong concerns about the economic outlook in Europe, and the euro remains under pressure in the medium term.Therefore, in the short term, we believe that the euro（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end.1.1150The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.
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[li]On the UK side,The UK has set targets for free trade negotiations with the US, providing some support for the pound. However, considering the constraints of the uncertain future of the "Anglo European negotiations",In the short term, we will maintain a weak and volatile structure of the pound. Furthermore, given the recent strong economic data in the UK, we believe that the pound/Beauty（GBPUSD）There is not much downside space for it,1.2700The following are all good supports.
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[li]In terms of commodity currency,Today, the Federal Reserve of Australia cuts interest rates25A basis point is basically in line with market expectations, and the exchange rate market has already reacted last week. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve of Australia cuts interest rates, Australia/The United States has not experienced a significant decline.Considering that there has been a certain degree of rebound in strong global stock markets and a decrease in risk sentiment, we believe that the Australian dollar may experience a technical rebound. The New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar are also similar.Technically, the multi kill structure at the daily level of the AUD and NZD has ended, but the daily levelRSIStill in the future50Therefore, in the short term, it is still weak and should be focused onRSIWhen will it rebound to50That's the real upward signal.
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[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,According to the manufacturing data released by the United States yesterday, uncertainties such as global public health events may have had a negative impact on the global manufacturing industry. according toCMEAccording to Federal Reserve Watch, the Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate reduction50The probability of one basis point has skyrocketed to100%. The exchange rate has also been reflected.Technically, the US Index（DXY）On97.2The following are all good supports, therefore, we believe that the short-term downward space of the US index will not be significant.
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[li]Although the Japanese economy is weak, with the return of safe haven funds to the Japanese bond market, the Japanese yen has also seen a significant increase, considering the role of the Japan Balanced Fund.We believe in beauty/Day on107.5The following are all good supports.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And set a new historical high,This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month03day16:20The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations.The weakening of the US dollar provides some support for gold prices, but the rise of global stock markets has weakened the attractiveness of gold. However, considering the increasing expectations in the market for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to relax monetary policy, we believe that there is limited room for a decline in gold prices.Therefore, we will maintain the gold price within1570-1630The range fluctuated and slightly rebounded this week.
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[li]In terms of oil prices, currently, with the global stock market rebound andOPEC+There is a high possibility of expanding the scale of production reduction, which will provide some support for oil prices in the short term.Technically, we have previously indicated that43For the ultimate support level, with yesterday's rebound, it has also reached a new pressure level49After a brief adjustment, we believe it will continue to rise.
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abstract

[li]CFTCAccording to cash flow data, net short positions in the euro and yen are still at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions has not slowed down yet. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.
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[li]WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1120	108.00	1.2800	1.3350	0.6550	0.6250
midline	1.1120	108.00	1.2800	1.3400	0.6600	0.6300

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	47.00	1,590
midline	48.00	1,600

Topic knowledge sharing

———LMAIndicators?

[li]so-calledLMAIndicator:It is what we often refer to as the low price average line indicator. Belonging to an important branch of the moving average indicator, it plays a very important role in grasping the trend of the foreign exchange market.
[/li][li]Low price average line（LMA）The basic principle is the same as that of moving averages, but the main difference lies in the different calculation foundations of the two.LMAThe low price average line is mainly used to study and judge the position of temporary tops and market resistance. In the application process, it is generally used in conjunction with the high price average line.
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[li]Calculation formula:
[/li][li]1、NdayHMA=NSum of daily lowest prices/N 2
[/li][li]2In the process of application,NThe number of days taken is usually selected5、14、30、72and144These five days.
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[li]Application rules:
[/li][li]1The general moving average is calculated based on the closing price, while the low price average is calculated based on the daily lowest price. At present, many investors in the market use it in the long market, believing that its support effect is more reference value than the traditional average.
[/li][li]2The combination of low price average and high price average has a more significant effect.
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