MEXGroupMorning News-The Federal Reserve urgently cuts interest rates, causing the US dollar to plummet and gold to soar3%。(2020-3-4)

Focus of foreign exchange market
Trading preference – This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）. The Federal Reserve urgently lowers interest rates50The US dollar is under pressure by one basis point. In addition, the euro has been boosted by market expectations that the US will lower interest rates more than Europe. However, considering the impact of the pandemic, there are still strong concerns about the economic outlook in Europe, and the euro remains under pressure in the medium term. Therefore, in the short term, we believe that the euro（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end.1.1150The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.
On the UK side, the poor negotiations between the UK and the EU have put downward pressure on the pound. In addition, considering the impact of pneumonia, the Bank of England also has expectations of interest rate cuts. Therefore, in the short term, we will maintain a weak and volatile structure in the pound.





In terms of commodity currency, the Federal Reserve of Australia cut interest rates as scheduled yesterday25A basis point, as the market has already digested the expectation of interest rate cuts, the Australian dollar has risen instead of falling. In fact, we have already given a warning earlier. Today, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision if interest rates are lowered50One basis point, the Canadian dollar will be under pressure; But if it's a rate cut25A basis point, the Canadian dollar may see a significant rebound.





In terms of safe haven currency, the Federal Reserve urgently lowered interest rates to hedge against the negative impact of uncertainties such as public health events on the global supply chain50Basis points, USD（DXY）Under pressure. The exchange rate market has also been largely reflected, and technically, the US index（DXY）On97The following are all good supports, therefore, we believe that the short-term downward space of the US index will not be significant.
With the United States10The yield of the one-year treasury bond bond fell to a record low, the stock market fell, credit spreads widened, and the yen rose to an intraday high. But we believe in beauty/Day on107The following are all good supports.















It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency Hedge Portfolio. The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And reach a new historical high, this week's combination and as of Beijing time3month04day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).





commodity market
Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations. With the decline of the stock market and the record low yield of treasury bond bonds, central banks have been prompted to take action, and the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates urgently50These are the core positive factors for gold, which are all based on one basis point. Therefore, we have finally raised the price of gold1650dollar/ounce.
In terms of oil prices, currently it appears that oil prices are affected by the decline in the stock market, but the decline is limited as major oil producing countries are considering further production cuts to support prices. Technically, we have previously indicated that43For the ultimate support level, with the recent rebound, it has also reached a new pressure level49After a brief adjustment, we believe it will continue to rise.










stock market indexprospect
In terms of stock index, although affected by the COVID-19, it has brought some support with the reduction of global interest rates. Hong Kong stocks rose and fell on Tuesday, with gains exceeding those of the previous session200Point, oscillating downward in the afternoon. Closing, Hang Seng Index closed lower0.03%。
On the market, online education stocks are weak, while Alibaba's concept sector is soaring. Considering the weakness of the global market, it is recommended that investors prioritize defense in the near future. In terms of technical form,28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.





abstract
CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.





XAUCan continue to hold.
WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.
Target price Europe/beautiful beautiful/day Pound/beautiful beautiful/plus Australia/beautiful Newtonian/beautiful
short-term 1.1200 107.00 1.2800 1.3350 0.6600 0.6300
midline 1.1150 107.50 1.2800 1.3350 0.6650 0.6320
Target price WTI XAU
short-term 48.00 1,640
midline 48.50 1,650
Economic Calendar