MBG MarketsMorning News2020-03-03

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – Relatively optimistic this weekbeautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。一方面，投资者押注美联储将降息应对公共卫生事件影响，削弱了美元的吸引力。另一方面，昨日欧元区公布的一系列2月份制造业数据表现超出预期，支撑了欧元。但考虑到疫情影响，欧洲经济前景依然存在较强担忧，欧元中期依然承压。Therefore,short-termWe believe thatEuro（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end.1.1100The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.
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[li]On the UK side,由于英国在与欧盟的谈判中走强硬路线，达不成协议的可能性上升，这也给英镑带来下行压力。Considering the increasing tension between the two sides at present, we will maintain a weak and volatile structure for the pound in the short term.
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[li]In terms of commodity currency,今日澳联储将公布利率决议，考虑到新冠病毒的影响扩大，我们预计澳洲联储将降息25个基点来应对。另外，新西兰央行与加拿大央行后续也有可能采取降息措施。并且，目前汇率市场已经基本得到反映；对此，我们早有提示。但考虑到近期澳元、纽元跌幅过大，已经反映降息预期，因此我们认为下半周或有技术性反弹。
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[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,目前市场对美国经济可能受到公共卫生事件的担忧情绪升温，这也使得美联储年内降息预期升温，美元也因此受到拖累。另外，从昨日美国公布的制造业数据来看，全球公共卫生事件等不确定性因素可能已对全球制造业造成负面影响。
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[li]上周因避险资金重返日债市场，日元大幅走强。考虑到日本政府养老投资基金的资产配置更倾向于全球股市、全球信贷、固定收益，以保市场稳定。因此，在目前这种环境下，美/Day orWill rebound.
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[li]It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantization strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α）by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.96%And set a new historical high,This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month03day07:00The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）For structures with excessive oscillations.At present, the global risk aversion is still very high. The decline of the stock market and the record low yield of treasury bond will make central banks take action. These are the core positive factors of gold.Therefore, we maintainThe price of gold will be1570-1630Range fluctuations, slightly rebounding this week。
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[li]油价方面，目前来看，中国疫情最坏的情况基本已经过去，但全球的公共卫生风险在上升，这令投资者再度担忧原油需求而短期受到冲击。但考虑到，全球股市反弹以及本周OPEC+较大可能会扩大减产规模，我们认为将会给油价带来一定支撑。therefore，我们thinkCrude oil（WTI）本周将是一个震荡偏多的结构，Below43是一个比较强的支撑。
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stock market indexprospect

[li]股指方面，虽然受新冠肺炎疫情持续影响，但美联储降息预期飙升，美股反弹，加上A股急涨，港股周一上涨明显。收盘，恒生指数涨0.62%。
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[li]盘面上，内房、5G概念板块走高，黄金股疲软。Considering the weakness of the global market, it is recommended that investors prioritize defense in the near future. In terms of technical form,28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.
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abstract

[li]CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.
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[li]WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1200	108.00	1.2750	1.3300	0.6500	0.6250
midline	1.1200	108.50	1.2750	1.3300	0.6500	0.6250

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	48.00	1,600
midline	48.00	1,600