MBG Markets: 全球利率下调预期强烈，黄金拉回修整接近尾声

Market Focus

Trading preference – This week is relatively beautiful and beautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。上周由于疫情对经济影响的担忧持续升温，市场预计美联储将大幅降息，叠加美债收益率重挫，都削弱了美元的吸引力。随着美元的走弱也给欧元带来了一定支撑。但考虑到疫情影响，欧洲经济前景依然存在较强担忧，欧元中期依然承压。因此，短期我们认为欧元（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end, and the medium-term trend is still weak.1.1100The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.

英国方面，由于英国在与欧盟的谈判中走强硬路线，不愿为达成贸易协议而“放弃主权”，达不成协议的可能性上升，这将给英镑带来下行压力。考虑到眼下双方紧张气氛加剧，因此，短期我们维持英镑为震荡偏弱结构。

商品货币方面，虽然新西兰央行与澳洲央行已暗示利率将暂时维持不变，但这并未促使投资者停止对最终将降息的积极押注。市场现已预估新西兰联储到9The monthly interest rate will be lowered to0.75%Interest ratefuturesHint to the Reserve of Australia7Monthly interest rate reduction to0.5%。并且，还汇率市场已经得到反映；对此，我们早有提示。但考虑到近期澳元、纽元跌幅过大，下半周或有技术性反弹。

It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MBGThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.


避险货币方面，目前市场对美国经济可能受到公共卫生事件的担忧情绪升温，这也使得美联储年内降息预期升温，叠加十年期美债收益率跌至历史新低，美元也因此受到拖累。
上周因避险资金重返日债市场，日元大幅走强。考虑到日本政府养老投资基金的资产配置更倾向于全球股市、全球信贷、固定收益。因此，在目前这种环境下,beautiful/日或将反弹。

MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.94%And reach a new historical high, this week's combination and as of Beijing time3month02day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).





commodity market

Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Excessive oscillation andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡结构。目前来看，全球避险情绪仍然非常高，股市的走低和国债收益率的创新低，都将使得各国央行都将采取行动，这些都是黄金的核心利好因素。因此，我们维持金价将在1570-1630The range fluctuated and slightly rebounded this week.
油价方面，全球公共卫生风险进一步发酵，引发投资对经济前景看法益发悲观。另外，全球股票市场的下跌，也令风险偏好加剧回落。因此，我们认为原油（WTI）In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, below43是一个比较强的支撑。




stock market indexprospect

On the stock index side, as the COVID-19 continued, panic gripped Wall Street and investors sold off risky assets. The Hong Kong stock market opened low last Friday and fell below during the trading session26000Point, slightly up in the end of the day and then turning downwards, closing with the Hang Seng Index falling2.42%, hold on26000Point at the checkpoint.
盘面上，各大板块基本上全面下行。考虑到全球市场的疲弱，建议近期投资者以防御为主。技术形态上，28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.



abstract

CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.

WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.



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