MEX GROUPGlobal interest rate cuts are expected to be strong, and gold's pullback and correction are nearing completion

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference – Relatively optimistic this weekbeautiful/Rui（USDCHF）。Last week, concerns about the impact of the pandemic on the economy continued to rise, and the market expected the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates, coupled with a sharp drop in US bond yields, which weakened the attractiveness of the US dollar. The weakening of the US dollar has also provided some support for the euro. However, considering the impact of the pandemic, there are still strong concerns about the economic outlook in Europe, and the euro remains under pressure in the medium term.Therefore,short-termWe believe thatEuro（EURUSD)The rebound is basically coming to an end, and the medium-term trend is still weak.1.1100The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.
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[li]On the UK side,Due to the UK's tough stance in negotiations with the European Union and unwillingness to "relinquish sovereignty" in order to reach a trade agreement, the possibility of not reaching an agreement is increasing, which will bring downward pressure on the pound.Considering the increasing tension between the two sides at present, we will maintain a weak and volatile structure for the pound in the short term.
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In terms of commodity currency,Although the Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Australia have hinted that interest rates will remain temporarily unchanged, this has not prompted investors to stop actively betting on the eventual rate cut. The market has now estimated that the New Zealand Federal Reserve will arrive9The monthly interest rate will be lowered to0.75%Interest ratefuturesHint to the Reserve of Australia7Monthly interest rate reduction to0.5%。And the exchange rate market has already been reflected;We have already given a reminder about this. However, considering the recent significant decline in the Australian and New Zealand dollars, there may be a technical rebound in the second half of the week.

[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,At present, the market is increasingly concerned about the possibility of public health incidents affecting the US economy,This has also raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, coupled with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to a historic low, dragging down the US dollar as a result.
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[li]Last week, the Japanese yen strengthened significantly due to the return of safe haven funds to the Japanese bond market. Considering that the asset allocation of Japanese government pension investment funds is more inclined towards global stock markets, global credit, and fixed income.Therefore, in the current environment,beautiful/Day orWill rebound.
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[li]It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantization strategy has repeatedly set new highs as a resultInvestors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α）by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.94%And set a new historical high,This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month02day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference – This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Excessive oscillation andcrude oil（WTI）For oscillating structures.At present, the global risk aversion is still very high. The decline of the stock market and the record low yield of treasury bond will make central banks take action. These are the core positive factors of gold.Therefore, we maintainThe price of gold will be1570-1630Range fluctuations, slightly rebounding this week。
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[li]In terms of oil prices, global public health risks are further fermenting, leading to increasingly pessimistic views of investment on the economic outlook. In addition, the decline in global stock markets has intensified risk appetite and led to a decline.therefore，WethinkCrude oil（WTI）In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly, below43It is a relatively strong support。
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stock market indexprospect

[li]On the stock index side, as the COVID-19 continued, panic gripped Wall Street and investors sold off risky assets. The Hong Kong stock market opened low last Friday and fell below during the trading session26000Point, slightly up in the end of the day and then turning downwards, closing with the Hang Seng Index falling2.42%, hold on26000Point at the checkpoint.
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[li]On the market, major sectors are generally experiencing a comprehensive decline.Considering the weakness of the global market, it is recommended that investors prioritize defense in the near future. In terms of technical form,28000It's a lot of pressure, below25500Medium term support requires special attention.
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abstract

[li]CFTCCapital flow data shows that net short positions in the euro and yen are at their peak, and the growth rate of net short positions is still increasing. Therefore, it is not yet possible to confirm the inflow of funds and support a rebound in the short term. In addition, the net long positions of pounds and Canadian dollars are also at their peak.
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[li]WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1050	107.00	1.2800	1.3400	0.6500	0.6200
midline	1.1100	107.00	1.2800	1.3400	0.6500	0.6200

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	44.00	1,600
midline	44.00	1,600

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