MEX GROUPEvening special report2020-02-28

Focus of foreign exchange market

[li]Trading preference - - -Relatively optimistic about Europe this week/Beauty（EURUSD）。The recent strength of the euro is mainly due to the federal funds ratefuturesHint to the Federal Reserve2020Interest rates will be lowered annually75One basis point. Considering the impact of the epidemic, we believe that the euro remains under pressure in the medium term. Today Germany will release unemployment and inflation data, and we are relatively optimistic about it2Monthly inflation.Therefore,short-termWe still maintainEuro（EURUSD)For correction after a significant decline,1.1050The above will face huge pressure and can realize some profits.Technically, there is a significant short-term increase, so pay attention to it1.0950Support.
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[li]On the UK side,Recently, the pound has been suppressed due to the UK's tough stance in its trade negotiations with the European Union.Considering the increasing tension between the two sides at present, we will maintain a weak and volatile structure for the pound in the short term.In terms of data, the overall economic data of the UK has been strong recently,2monthGfkThe consumer confidence index is also better than expected. Therefore, we believe that pounds/Midea doesn't have much downside space,1.2800It is a good support.
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[li]In terms of commodity currency,Due to market uncertainty affecting the global supply chain, Asian stock markets plummeted, and the Australian dollar continued to decline as a result.We have already given a reminder about this. However, it should be noted that due to the recent significant decline in the Australian dollar, there may be a technical rebound in commodity currencies next week.in addition to,WTIcrude oilThe Canadian dollar is under pressure as it falls to its lowest level in over a year. Technically, both the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar experience a bullish trend at the daily level, therefore, the daily trendRSIDetachment20Rebound to50That's the stop down signal.
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[li]In terms of safe haven currencies,Due to the expected increase in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, coupled with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to a historic low, the US dollar has been dragged down. Today, the United States will announce1Monthly CorePCEBased on recent economic data released by the United States, we believe that there will not be much improvement.But technically, the US Index（DXY）On98The following are all good supports, therefore, we believe that the short-term downward space of the US index will not be significant.
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[li]Similarly, the Japanese yen experienced a significant increase due to the return of safe haven funds to Japanese bonds.But considering Japan's weak economy, we believe that the United States/Day on109The following also provide good support。
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α）by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.19%，This week's combination and as of Beijing time2month28day16:18The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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commodity market

[li]Trading preference –This week we will maintaingold（XAU）For structures with more oscillations and crude oil（WTI）For weakly oscillating structures.Asian stock markets fell across the board, with risk aversion still very high, superimposed on the record low yield of treasury bond bonds.Therefore, we believe that there is still a possibility of lowering global interest rates, and gold prices are supported. maintainThe price of gold will be1620-1650The range fluctuates, and the short-term correction is basically over,1635Strong support.
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[li]In terms of oil prices, global public health risks are further fermenting, leading to increasingly pessimistic views of investment on the economic outlook. In addition, the decline in global stock markets has intensified risk appetite and led to a decline.therefore，WethinkCrude oil（WTI）In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly,43For the ultimate support position.
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abstract

[li]CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the net short position of the euro is at its peak, and the growth rate of net short positions has slowed down. Therefore, we believe that there will be capital inflows and support a rebound. In addition, the net long positions of the pound and Swiss franc are also at their peak.
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[li]WTI, Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1000	109.00	1.2850	1.3500	0.6500	0.6200
midline	1.1000	109.00	1.2850	1.3500	0.6500	0.6200

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	45.50	1,640
midline	45.50	1,640

Topic knowledge sharing

———ADRIndicators?

[li]ADRindexAlso known as the rise and fall ratio indicator or the rise and fall ratio indicator, its full English name is“Advance Decline Ratio”. andADLIndicators, like other indicators, are medium - and long-term technical analysis tools specifically designed to study the trends of stock indices.
[/li][li]He can reflect the overall strength of the stock market. that,How to clearly and quickly understand the changes in the ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks in the stock market? Index of rise and fall ratio(ADR)This information can be reflected intuitively and quickly.
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[li]Calculation formula
[/li][li]ADR（NDay)=P1÷P2
[/li][li]In the formula:P1=ΣNA——NThe sum of the number of stocks that rose during the day ，P2=ΣND——NThe sum of the number of stocks falling during the day.
[/li][li]NThe selected days are daysADRParameters of
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[li]Application methods
[/li][li]Generally speaking,ADRWe can roughly divide the numerical values into several regions.
[/li][li]1、ADRValue in0.5——1.5Between them isADRLocated within the normal area. WhenADRWhen within a normal range, it indicates that both the long and short sides are evenly matched, and the overall trend of the market is not volatile and relatively stable. The stock market trend belongs to a consolidation trend. This area isADRRegions where numerical values frequently appear.
[/li][li]2WhenADRValue in0.3——0.5Between or1.5——2Between them isADRLocated in an abnormal area.
[/li][li]WhenADRLocated in1.5——2When there is an abnormal area between them, it indicates that the bullish forces have an advantage, and the market is starting to rise all the way up. The stock market trend belongs to a bullish market.
[/li][li]And whenADRLocated in0.3——0.5When there is an abnormal area between them, it indicates that bearish forces have an advantage, and the overall market is beginning to decline. The stock market trend belongs to a bearish market. These two areas areADRRegions with relatively few numerical values.
[/li][li]3WhenADRThe value is in the0.3Below or2When mentioned aboveADRLocated in an extremely abnormal area. WhenADRWhen in an extremely abnormal area, it is mainly a sudden bullish or bearish news that causes the stock market to rise and fall sharply. At this point, the stock market trend belongs to a bearish or bullish market.
[/li][li]imageforeign exchangeActually, it is very similar to our stock market, and we can alsoADRApplied to the foreign exchange market as an indicator for us to examine the strength of exchange rates.
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